In the context of global clean energy development, the market size of natural gas, as a representative of low-carbon fuels, is increasing year by year. According to the Energy Institute,Global natural gas production will reach 411 trillion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 16%, an all-time high。Over the past decade (2013-2023), global natural gas production has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 202%, showing a continuous growth trend as a whole, consistent with global economic growth and expanding energy consumption. Looking ahead, the consumption market of natural gas, as an important low-carbon energy source, is expected to continue to maintain positive growth, and the global natural gas market is expected to maintain a growth rate of 2%-3% by 2030, even in the context of accelerating global decarbonization trends.
Global natural gas** marketThe United States ended with 102 trillion cubic meters of production became the largest natural gas producer in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 472%。Russia, Iran and China followed. Russia's natural gas production in 2023 will be about 06 trillion cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.5 billion cubic meters.
Looking ahead, global natural gas production and consumption are expected to continue to grow. However, with the development of new technologies and the rapid rise of alternative energy sources such as hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, etc., the position of natural gas in the global energy mix will be challenged. It is expected that the global supply and demand of natural gas will peak around 2036Production could increase to 4About 7 trillion cubic meters。At that time, with the weakening of the first end, the consumer market will gradually shrink.
In 2023, thanks to the positive macroeconomic rebound, the downward trend of natural gas**, and the diversification of alternative energy sources**,China's natural gas consumption reached 391.7 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 66%。Among them,The output of domestic natural gas was 235.3 billion cubic meters (including coal-to-gas), with a growth rate of 57%For seven consecutive years, it has achieved a significant achievement of increasing production by more than 10 billion cubic meters. At the same time, affected by the international oil and gas market, the volume of imported natural gas resumed growthThe total import volume reached 165.6 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 95%。As a result, China's dependence on foreign natural gas reaches 423%, an increase of 1 from the previous year1 percentage point.
Looking ahead, the macro economy is expected to continue to grow steadily in 2024, with international natural gas** maintaining a downward trend and alternative energy sources** further increasing. Based on these factors,:Our ** natural gas consumption will reach 415.7 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 61%。The construction of domestic natural gas production capacity will be steadily promotedThe output is expected to reach 245.8 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 45%。At the same time,Natural gas imports are expected to reach 179.1 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 82%。Overall, China's natural gas market will maintain a healthy and stable development trend.
From the perspective of the global high-quality author list, the global natural gas supply and demand will remain relatively loose in the future, and the growth of the first end will be slow, which will basically match the consumer market. The rapid expansion of renewables and improvements in nuclear power** could lead to a decline in natural gas demand in mature markets in Europe and Asia. In addition, mild winter weather and throttling measures will also reduce the use of natural gas in the residential and commercial sectors. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of natural gas supply will still outpace the growth rate of demand, and the overall supply and demand situation will be more accommodative.