What is the outlook for the property market this year and next? Authorities send signals
First of all, we will share with you two pieces of information related to the real estate market.
First of all, let's talk about a phenomenon that I don't know if you have noticed, this round of property market adjustment, the cities with more housing prices are actually big cities, and the housing prices in most counties are not much (except for counties in economically developed areas such as Zhejiang, which are very high at the beginning), saying that there is no market or no acquisition, in fact, it is so magical. Actually, there are unavoidable reasons for this:
1.the rigid demand for rural areas to go to the city to buy a house, get married, and go to school; 2.The income of migrant workers is not low, especially for construction and decoration related jobs; 3.The housing prices in most counties are not high, and the land and construction costs of 6,000-8,000 yuan per square meter for new houses are also there.
Secondly, a report on the comparison of house prices in the world's top cities was released. Tokyo, New York, and London have house-price-to-income ratios of and 15, respectively, and rental yields of 25% to 31%；Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai have house-price-to-income ratios of and 44, respectively, with rental yields ranging from 1% to 15%。As for the mortgage stress ratio, the latter is also 3-4 times that of the former. From this, it is not difficult for us to understand that in this round of housing price adjustment, the housing price adjustment in large cities is more reasonable than the housing price adjustment in municipalities directly under the central government, isn't it? At the end of the day, housing prices are still too high.
However, after more than two years of adjustment in the national property market, the housing prices in many communities have returned to the period before 2019 and even in 2016. Sunac Sun Hongbin believes that when the house price exceeds 30%, many real estate companies die, which means that the industry can no longer develop. The continuous adjustment of the property market will inevitably bring a series of problems, such as the interruption of real estate construction, delayed delivery, quality and other problems, and the most profound impact is that the industries related to the real estate industry cannot operate, and the information of closures and layoffs emerges in an endless stream.
In this regard, the state is naturally very clear. You see, in 2023 alone, the state will introduce real estate optimization measures close to 1000 times, and even ran to the end of 2023 (before entering 2024), the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the State Administration of Financial Supervision, the Central Bank and other ** ministries and commissions coordinated real estate financing"Whitelist"Landing, the goal is self-evident, it is the beginning of the traditional property market transaction season"Gold three silver four"Add fuel to the fire, help a little power.
In this regard, we can see one or two from the January 2024 National Anjuke Index released by Anjuke, on the one hand, the country's 65 key cities are hot to find a house in different cities.
First-, second-, and third-tier cities saw declines, respectively. 3%, on the other hand, the index of real estate agents on the other hand is rising again, up 5 percent from the previous month7%。There is no doubt that in the context of the wind direction policy, real estate agents have been gearing up and feel that the market is going to rise.
Many people are worried about where the real estate market will go this year and next – where to go? In fact, this is not something that we buyers can say clearly, nor can we real estate agents influence it, from a historical point of view, it is ultimately a political decision. Next, let's analyze the official *** in ***, how do you look at this problem?
On February 27, the China Economic Times published an article entitled "Continuous Optimization and Adjustment of Policies and Efforts to Promote the Development of New Real Estate Models", focusing on the upcoming national conference"Two sessions"How real estate development has become a current focus issue. In the meantime, place"Two sessions"It has been the first to be held, and the establishment of a new real estate model has also been listed as an important part of the local ** work in 2024. In short, the new property model mainly includes the following aspects:
The first is to establish a system of simultaneous rental and purchase to solve the housing problems of new citizens, young people and groups with housing difficulties; The second is to speed up"Three major projects"dynamics and speed; the third is to establish a real estate financing coordination mechanism; Fourth, establishment"People, houses, land, money"Factor linkage mechanism to adapt to major changes in real estate supply and demand. Fourth, establishment"People, houses, land, money"Factor linkage mechanism to adapt to major changes in real estate supply and demand. The article concludes with a quote from the industry:
The above text has a total of 66 words, which can be regarded as a good response to the focus of netizens' attention, and several meanings can be seen:
The first thing to say is that since September last year, first-tier cities have eased purchase restrictions in three consecutive rounds, and each time it was done in one step. In fact, we can see that every time the restrictions are relaxed, a part of the demand will be released, causing a heat wave in the market. Because the management is well aware that the first-tier cities are the vane of the property market, and the intention to continue to relax the restrictions is also obvious, that is, it is expected to boost the recovery of home buying confidence in the property market in other cities.
But why not fully liberalize all at once, but adopt gradual easing? The reason is also very clear: the fear of the comeback of speculators is not conducive to the principle of housing for living, not speculation. Each round of easing starts with individual cities such as Guangzhou or Shenzhen, first to see the effect, and then the other two cities follow suit. It is worth mentioning that in this property market toolbox, the top-ranked cities still have more space, and gradual progress also means that as long as the market needs it, it will continue to increase until the goal is reached.
Secondly, supply-side risk prevention actually refers to the implementation proposed by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development from 2024"People, houses, land, money"Element linkage mechanism.
According to the data, the inventory of the new commercial housing market in the country exceeds 6500 million square meters, which is equivalent to the eve of the national real estate market in 2014, and the inventory cycle of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities reached 22In the past nine months, the housing supply has exceeded demand. Because of this, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development requires on the back of the land transfer"Determine the house by the person, and determine the land by the house"This is actually resetting the 2014 wave of property market to destocking mode. At that time, many cities reduced or stopped land**, such as some areas in Jiangsu for three consecutive years**, which eventually destocked the property market.
At the same time, it is necessary to intensify the transformation of shantytowns and the monetization of demolition and relocation, similar to the three major projects we are focusing on advancing today"Transformation of urban villages"Job. In the vernacular, it means that the inventory of the property market is large, and whether the land should be supplied or not, it is necessary to continue to de-escalate through measures, and wait until the supply and demand are balanced to see whether the land should be continued to be supplied. This is not difficult to operate, the city has a floating population, the proportion of land is certain, the amount of land is determined, it is conceivable that the inventory of the property market should be the current peak, and over time, the inventory will be gradually digested.
In the end, whether it's supply and demand, or"Three major projects"There is only one goal: to guide the national property market to stabilize and rebound. Seeing this, I nagged for a long time, and so many policies were introduced, all in order to guide the property market forward"Stabilize and rebound"Goal to move forward.
So, can this goal be achieved? Personally, I think the possibility is still relatively large, and many netizens also think that this is obvious. 3 reasons, in fact, everyone is very clear:
1.70% of the country's household wealth is made up of real estate, according to the central bank's survey data, 96% of urban households have a house, and 41% of two or more families have a house5%。It can be said that after the reform and opening up, most of the wealth accumulation of decades and generations is composed of real estate. This is also one of the main reasons why the state wants to prevent the real estate industry from declining further in order to protect people's wealth, and it is estimated that netizens who own real estate will raise their hands in support.
2) The real estate industry is linked to dozens of industries, providing jobs for tens of millions of people and affecting hundreds of millions of households. In the context of greater downward pressure on the economy, it is particularly important to protect employment. As Minister Ni of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said, the added value of the real estate and construction industry accounts for 13% of GDP (if you include related industries, the proportion is higher), and the real estate and construction industry is the national economy"Roof beams"Stabilizing these two industries is of great significance for stabilizing the national economy.
3) Avoid the impact of risks in the real estate industry. Needless to say, the real estate crisis, due to the large amount of funds occupied by the real estate industry, has a high leverage effect, because it continues, to real estate enterprises, businessmen, banks, and even to the purchase of mortgage loans, will bring financial risk impact. That's why I can't see it"Three red lines"implementation, but to"Support for the financing of real estate projects"The main reason for the substitution.