【Reading guide】2 month end, the domestic pig market "warped" ended, into March, by the stage of multiple good piles, pig prices ** "can not stop", in the short term the market is easy to rise and fall or will be obvious, but, for the prospect of pig prices in March, theoretically, pig prices are still facing the pressure of the first end, although the second breeding stimulates the market, but, whether it can continue to face some uncertainty! Hogs**
According to data analysis, on March 1, 2024, the price of outer ternary lean pigs rose to 1393 yuan kg, **015 yuan, pig prices continued to rise, and the average price of live pigs further moved up, compared with 13 before the Lantern Festival52 yuan kg, pig price cumulative **041 yuan!
At present, the performance of the pig market is average, due to the acceleration of the sow inventory, the abnormal fluctuation of domestic temperature at the end of last year, the long-term loss of slaughter at the breeding end, the negligence of biosecurity precautions in pig farms, and the severe epidemic phenomenon in many pig farms, resulting in the loss of a large number of sows, piglets and large pigs, and the production capacity of the breeding end has been greatly improved, which has also driven the optimism of the market for the prospect of pig prices!
Among them, the first pig farm, after the holiday pig fattening "profit and loss", the breeding end of the resistance to the loss of the pig mentality to become stronger, the sentiment of the sale weakened, and the cost of feed continued to decline, the cost of pig fattening decreased, the phenomenon of farmers pressing the fence to gain weight, the pace of slaughter slowed down. For the group pig enterprises, affected by the pig price, the pace of large-scale pig enterprises has slowed down, the phenomenon of wait-and-see price increase at the end of the month, and the volume of staged pig slaughter has decreased significantly!
Due to the market's optimism about the prospect of pig prices, there are more empty bars after the second fattening festival, and the rhythm of supplementing the column has gradually accelerated, and the phenomenon of second breeding has appeared in many places in the south, which not only enhances the bullish sentiment of the pig farm, but also diverts the scale of the slaughterhouse pig to the factory, and the difficulty of purchasing pigs from the slaughterhouse increases!
On the demand side, after the Lantern Festival, all walks of life have fully recovered, catering and dine-in demand support has become stronger, the downstream orders of slaughterhouses have gradually rebounded, and the average daily slaughter volume has also been raised.
Therefore, under the backdrop of many positive parties, pig prices have started to rise in price! Personally, I believe that in the short term, due to the second fattening to stimulate the market, the breeding end of the price is reluctant to sell the mentality is strong, the pig price is "unstoppable", and the center of gravity may further rise! However, the author is skeptical about the prospect of pig prices in March, whether there will be retaliation!
On the one hand, pig production capacity may be postponed! At the end of February, the second fattening entry was positive, and the pace of slaughter of the group's pig enterprises slowed down, and the mentality of active pressure on the price was enhanced, and the scale of pig slaughter in March may have a certain increase, and the pattern was relatively relaxed. In particular, before and after the Spring Festival, the frozen pork of slaughtering enterprises is not smooth, and recently, the white strip ** has been continuously lowered, the pressure of frozen pork to inventory is greater, and the pork ** capacity is more relaxed!
On the other hand, secondary fattening may be difficult to continue to advance! In particular, with the rebound of the center of gravity of pigs, the cost of supplementing the pig will also be gradually, the second breeding sentiment or will be cautious, superimposed, frozen pork inventory is high, slaughtering enterprises are not enthusiastic about warehousing, and consumer demand is still in the off-season!
Therefore, based on the pressure of the market, I personally believe that in the short term, guided by emotions, pig prices may be stable and strong, however, by the pressure and changes in the mood of the second breeding, there is no shortage of pig prices again The risk of rising and falling back again, in March, pig prices do not have the opportunity to retaliate!
Pig prices ** "can't be stopped", the second breed stimulates the market, and the pig price retaliates in March**? What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet!