On March 7, Wang Tao, head of Asian economic research and chief China economist at UBS, said at the sharing meeting that the work report set China's economic growth target at about 5% this year, which is in line with the previous one.
Wang Tao believes that China's overall macroeconomic policy will maintain a moderate and supportive tone this year. China will not introduce large-scale monetary easing, but there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts within the year. However, real estate policy support still needs to be increased to stabilize economic growth and alleviate deflationary pressure. In addition, China will introduce more structural policies to promote economic transformation.
China's macro policy has maintained a moderate and supportive tone this year.
This year's work report disclosed a series of policies to stabilize growth. Wang Tao said that from the perspective of scale, the support of macro policies is relatively modest, and there is no flood-style stimulus policy.
In Wang Tao's view, in order to achieve this goal, it is planned to issue 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for the construction of major national strategic projects, and the expansion of the fiscal deficit rate (including budget and extra-budgetary) will exceed 1% of GDP.
Wang Tao pointed out that the issuance of 1 trillion special treasury bonds this year is in line with expectations, but judging from the ** work report, this has become a long-term policy, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued in the next few years, which is beyond previous expectations. At the same time, most of the 1 trillion yuan issued at the end of last year was unused, and it will also be distributed this year. This means that this year's explicit fiscal policy is more active than last year's.
In addition, for monetary policy, Wang Tao believes that the monetary and credit policy will maintain a supportive tone, but will not introduce a large-scale monetary easing policy, or will only reduce the policy rate by 10-20 basis points this year, and the credit growth rate will be roughly stable.
Real estate policy support still needs to be increased.
*The work report requires that this year, we will further optimize the regulation and control of real estate according to the city's policies, provide support for the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination, promote the restructuring of real estate debts, and increase support for affordable housing and the transformation of urban villages.
Wang Tao expects that the central bank may invest another 300 billion to 500 billion yuan of mortgage supplementary loans (PSL) within the year, and the mortgage interest rate and down payment ratio may be further reduced.
Policy support still needs to be increased to stabilize the real estate market. Wang Tao believes that this year, China may continue to increase credit support for real estate developers, further promote debt restructuring, increase financial support for "guaranteed delivery of buildings", and support local governments to directly purchase more market housing inventory.
In addition, according to UBS**, China's real estate starts and sales area this year, as well as**, are likely to stabilize by the middle of the year.
Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter Jiang Fan.
Edited by Chen Li.
Proofread by Lucy.