It's 2024, and the issue of buying a house still affects the hearts of countless people, especially for those who don't yet have their own homes. The high price of housing makes many people hesitate, however, as an important part of life, the house not only carries the function of residence, but also relates to investment, marriage, children's education and social welfare. 
At the end of 2023, the average selling price of commercial housing is as high as 9,600 yuan per square meter, although it is lower than 11,030 yuan square meter in 2021, but it is still out of reach for ordinary people. The continuous rise in housing prices has led many people to see the potential for investment, which in turn has led to the rise of the property investment boom. For many ordinary people, the lack of diverse investment channels and concerns about the depreciation of bank deposits have made property investment a relatively safe and seemingly rewarding option. The continuous increase in housing prices not only allows investors to preserve their wealth, but also brings considerable appreciation.
With the rapid development of the real estate industry, the vast majority of urbanized families in China already own at least one house. According to central bank statistics, 96Eighty-six per cent of urban households already own a home, with an average of more than 15 sets. This data shows that most urban households in China have not only solved the housing problem, but also a considerable number of families have surplus real estate. Further data shows that more than 31% of urban households own two or more homes, while the proportion of households with three or more properties also exceeds 105%。
Nowadays, although most urban families already own their own homes, there are still a large number of people in need in the property market, eager to have a world of their own. However, the continued high price hike has made these aspirations out of reach. The reason behind this is the huge gap between housing prices and the real income of the majority of residents. According to data released by the Shanghai E-House Research Institute, by the end of 2020, the average house-price-to-income ratio in China's top 100 cities was as high as 92, and the proportion of the top 50 cities climbed to a staggering 133。This means that families living in the top 50 cities in the country need to work hard for up to 13 days without food or drink to buy a house3 years. It can be seen that the current level of housing prices in China is undoubtedly a heavy burden for ordinary families.
Although there is an option for a down payment when buying a home, setting the down payment ratio at 30% also eases the financial pressure to some extent. However, even this 30% down payment is an unattainable amount for many buyers who just need a home. In my hometown, for example, in a relatively economically backward third-tier city, the house price here is about 8,000 yuan per square meter. If you want to buy a 100-square-meter house, the total price will be as high as 800,000 yuan. Even if the down payment ratio is 30% and the loan is calculated for 30 years, the down payment will be 240,000 yuan, and the loan of more than 3,200 yuan will need to be repaid every month in the next 30 years. Such a level of housing prices is already a lot of expense for residents in third- and fourth-tier cities whose incomes are already low. In the first and second-tier popular cities, housing prices are often 20,000 or 30,000, or even higher. Therefore, it can be said that in most cities today, the pressure on buyers who just need to buy a home is quite heavy.
For the rigid needs of these groups living in the cracks, 2024 is undoubtedly a year full of entanglements and hesitations. On the one hand, they are worried that housing prices will continue to be like in 2023, and they will fall into the predicament of shrinking assets; On the other hand, they are worried that if they do not buy a house at this time, housing prices may suddenly rise as in the past, making it more difficult for them to bear the financial pressure of buying a house. Especially in the context of increased bailouts in 2024, they are more entangled in whether they should buy a house. So, if they choose not to buy a house this year, will they be faced with an unaffordable home in 5 years or an easy purchase after the price of the house? On this issue, Wang Jianlin and Ma Guangyuan have the same views, and both believe that buyers who just need to buy a house should make a wise choice according to their own economic situation and market trends.
In a popular TV show in 2013, Wang Jianlin relied on his profound insight to make a precise ** of the trend of housing prices in the next 10 years. He firmly believes that with the steady progress of urbanization, first- and second-tier cities will continue to attract population inflows, which in turn will drive up housing prices steadily. For those third- and fourth-tier cities with relatively little development potential, especially those facing population loss, the space for housing prices** will be extremely limited.
Time flies, it has been 10 years in the blink of an eye, looking back on Wang Jianlin's **, the accuracy is breathtaking. With the gradual replacement of the shantytown reform policy by the old reform policy, the housing prices in the third and fourth-tier cities have indeed shown a trend of stagnation or even **, which just verifies Wang Jianlin's forward-looking.
Nowadays, the property market environment is becoming more and more complex and changeable, but Wang Jianlin's ** still has valuable guiding significance. In the context of the parallel implementation of regulatory policies and rescue policies, the differentiation of the property market will be more obvious in the future. Therefore, in the next five years, the main feature of the house price trend will be to find divergence in stability. For first- and second-tier hotspot cities that continue to attract population inflows, housing prices are expected to remain moderate while stabilizing**; For third- and fourth-tier cities with serious population loss, the probability of housing prices will gradually increase.
In the real estate industry, the voice of the famous economist Ma Guangyuan has been attracting much attention. In the past, he was optimistic about the trend of housing prices, but this year he publicly said that "housing for living, not speculation" may become a long-term regulatory policy, and the boom era of the real estate industry has come to an end. In addition, Ma Guangyuan also put forward the "three 20%" view, that is, in the future, only a few cities, real estate companies and real estate have investment value, and most of the real estate will gradually lose its investment charm. This view is undoubtedly a wake-up call for investors to be more prudent and informed in their choices in the real estate market in the future.
With the increasing abundance of housing resources in our country, when more and more people have their own warm nests, people's yearning for houses is not only satisfied with the basic shelter, but gradually towards higher quality and comfort. The continuous growth of the economy has undoubtedly promoted the continuous upgrading of people's requirements for housing quality. As a result, mid-to-high-end homes are bound to become increasingly sought after by the market due to their excellent quality, while lower-quality homes may gradually fade out of the market.
Although Ma Guangyuan and Wang Jianlin have different views, they actually have the same goal: the real value of a house lies in the fact that people are willing to buy and live in it. If there are only a few buyers, housing prices will naturally fall gradually. For first- and second-tier cities that continue to attract population inflows, strong demand indicates that housing prices are likely to continue to rise in the future, further exacerbating the cost of buying a home. For the third and fourth-tier cities with population outflow, after losing a large number of investors and buyers who just need to buy houses, housing prices may fall into a stagnant or even predicament, which also means that in five years, there is really a possibility that there will be a random selection of houses in these cities.