To tell the truth, real estate has no scientific and technological content, and it will not solve the "stuck neck" problem for China, but real estate is a "personnel-intensive industry", the related industries are too wide, the industrial chain is too long, and there are too many people involved, and countless people make a living.
Fewer property transactionsConstruction (migrant workers, supervision, testing, design......Machinery (tower cranes, installers, excavators, presses, etc.......Building materials (steel, cement, sand, coatings......Home improvement (wood, floor tiles, lamps, switches......Home appliances (air conditioners, color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, etc.......Furniture (sofas, tables and chairs, wardrobes, bed cabinets......and so on, the whale falls into the whirlpool.
For the real estate industry, there is a high probability that the follow-up will continue to support, and a greater "easing policy" is just around the corner.
In additionIn China's financial system, the bottom anchor is China's real estate, and more than half of the collateral for bank loans (which is still relatively conservative) is land and houses. The stability of the real estate market is related to the stability of China's financial system. The real estate market is also a market with heavy capital demand, which is sensitive to interest rates, so China's mortgage interest rates continue to decline, and the mortgage threshold continues to decrease, releasing water to the real estate market. Since the beginning of 2020, China's real estate market can be described as chilling, regardless of whether the real estate market was developed reasonably before, but now the real estate market needs support, and the house ** can not fall too much. If the house ** falls too much, and the bottom of the financial system is anchored to China's real estate, then the mortgage ratio of the financial system will be broken down, leading to financial systemic risk, which every Chinese cannot afford (Japan's lost thirty years is an example).
At present, housing prices can not rise, they can be lowered slightly, but they cannot fall significantly.
If you do want to buy a house, how?
If a young man from the countryside wants to get married now, he must at least have a house in the center of the town, because the countryside is now hollowed out, and you have to live in the countryside, and your neighbors may be forty or fifty years older than you; The town wants to buy a house in the county, because there may not be any decent large supermarkets in the town, and there are no entertainment venues such as movie theaters; The county wants to buy a house in a prefecture-level city, after all, the educational resources and health care resources must be better in the prefecture-level city; The thought of prefecture-level citiesMega cityWhen you buy a house, there are ideas, inspirations, and sparks that spark here, and there is the ability to carry a future with imagination.
In the future, only megacities will have real estate. When most experts analyze the relationship between real estate supply and demand, they will mention rigid demand, improvement demand, investment demand, and there is another demand in megacitiesMigration requirements.
Rural - urban - county - prefecture-level city -Mega cityThis need for mobility will eventually lead to the eventual gathering of people and fundsMega cityThe foundation of real estate lies in people and capital.
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