I saw a topic recommended by the platform: "Why does it feel like it's getting harder and harder to make money this year?".
Many people express their opinions on this topic, in fact, it has not been particularly easy to make money, the blogger himself just encountered the 2008 global financial crisis when he graduated from college, and it was difficult for graduates to find employment at that time, and the salary of graduates was only about 2000 yuan when they just graduated, do you believe it?
Until 2024, exactly 16 years, if we talk about a 16-year cycle, then the global economy has begun its next cycle.
I believe many people still remember the "4 trillion bailout plan."'Since then, I believe that the story is very clear to everyone who has come over, and now you can see the news at that time by searching for keywords, which is the fifth place in China's top ten livelihood events in 2008. This shows the importance and significance of this plan at that time.
In 2024, this is the second year after the three-year epidemic is released, why is it difficult to make money now, some people may be talking about the cause of the epidemic, so a key question to this question is "where is the money going?" “
I recently thought about a model, if in 2008 I was a first-tier city such as Beijing with a set of 50 square meters of old and dilapidated Beijing natives, then with the prosperity of real estate, then my real estate soared to 60,000 square meters, this suite is inherited from my parents, has not been renamed, but in fact it is mine, ignoring the impact of taxes. Around 2015, I sold it to a 985 high-achieving student who came to Beijing and just got a hukou, he was a programmer in the IT industry with a very high salary, tens of thousands, so I got 3 million, this high-achieving student made a down payment of 1 million, a loan of 2 million, and a loan of 30 years, according to the high interest rate at that time, the interest alone was almost 2 million. In 2024, 9 years after repaying the loan, Gao Caisheng still has a loan of more than 1.5 million, and at this time, he was at the threshold of 39-year-old professional age and was suddenly laid off.
In this model, I just give an example, so I have a deposit of 3 million, and my grandparents left me a house to live in, with a salary of 5,000 yuan, a house and a car, and a leisurely life. However, the programmer who spent 3 million yuan to buy a house could not afford to pay off the monthly payment because of layoffs, and he may face the risk ......of the property being auctioned
This example is talking about the operation of buying a house, which magnifies the gap between the two people, and both of them made a better choice for themselves at that time, so to answer the previous question, the money went to **?
The money has not disappeared, it may lie in the account in someone's name, but this part of the people have more and more money in their hands, in contrast, some people may have been working all their lives to change a part of the house that can be easily obtained, so the gap will be bigger and bigger.
This may be the Matthew effect, the money has not disappeared, it has just been transferred, some people have more money, some people not only have no money, they may not even have jobs, and they can only live on debt. That's probably what my model means.
So is there a lot of people like "Beijing natives", or are there more people like "IT programmers who take out loans to buy houses during high-salary periods"?
I'm not doing social research, I'm just thinking about how many people this model is suitable for, and how many people have changed their lives because of this wave of operations.
Today's discussion is not over, and we need to see how things change and go in the next cycle. We'll see