On March 6, the second session of the 14th National People's Congress held a press conference, and Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, said in response to a question from a reporter from the Beijing News that there are two key tasks to promote consumption this year, one is to promote the trade-in of consumer goods such as automobiles, home appliances, home decoration, kitchens and bathrooms, and the other is to boost service consumption.
Wang Wentao pointed out that China's automobile, home appliances, home improvement market complex volume, a considerable part of the product service life is long, energy consumption emissions are high, some because of long-term use there are certain safety hazards, it should be said that the potential renewal demand has entered a concentrated release period. For example, there are more than 16 million passenger cars with "China III" emission standards and below, of which more than 7 million are more than 15 years old.
Ren Huanhuan, deputy chief engineer of China Automotive Data, said in an interview with the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter, "Compared with previous years, the frequency of automobiles and related mentions has increased significantly, releasing a positive signal to maintain the continuous stability of industrial policies." ”
Since the end of last year, trade-in has been frequently mentioned, on March 1, the National Standing Committee has reviewed and adopted the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in", Shanghai's new round of fuel vehicle trade-in subsidy policy was also implemented in early March, and the follow-up in other places is expected to follow up one after another, and the trade-in is likely to become the main means of promoting consumption of automobiles this year. Chen Chuan, director of the passenger car research office of China Automotive Data, said.
Wu Shengnan, policy research director of the China Automotive Research Institute Policy Research Consulting Center, mentioned that looking back on the policy trend in recent years, expanding consumption has always been the main tone of management, and through a variety of policy "toolkits", it has enhanced market confidence, stabilized the industry economy, and promoted industrial development.
There is a huge demand and potential for automobile upgrading, and "trade-in" can stimulate market vitality on the premise of satisfying consumption.
Shell Finance: Why has trade-in become the focus of promoting automobile consumption? What are the highlights?
Chen Chuan: Since the end of last year, the trade-in has been frequently mentioned, on March 1, the National Standing Committee has reviewed and approved the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in", Shanghai's new round of fuel vehicle trade-in subsidy policy also landed in early March, and the follow-up of other places is expected to follow up one after another, and the trade-in is likely to become the main means of promoting consumption of automobiles this year. This round of trade-in policy is expected to have two major characteristics, one is the linkage of finance and local finance, and the other is the two-way drive of traditional vehicles and new energy subsidies, but the new energy subsidies are stronger.
Wu Shengnan: The essence of this round of trade-in and boosting consumption is to meet the requirements of the green development of the automobile industry, and it is also the inevitable to create new momentum for the industry, and it is also an important measure for the high-quality transformation and development of the industry. Specifically, it is manifested in: large-scale promotion of car trade-in, first, it can stimulate domestic demand and smooth internal circulation; the second is to update high-energy consumption and high-emission vehicle products to reduce carbon emissions and pollutant emissions; Third, it will help promote the development and consumption of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles.
The number of cars in China is about 33.6 billion vehicles, corresponding to the huge demand and potential for upgrading, trade-in and other measures can further stimulate market vitality under the premise of meeting consumption. At the same time, the development of electric vehicle industry technology is accelerating, and the cross-border integration of technology has become the main tone of innovation and development, and vigorously developing new energy vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles will help further enhance the steady growth vitality of the industry, enhance the core competitiveness of the industry, and promote the construction of an automobile power.
The steady growth signal of both supply and demand of the automobile industry is significant, which will effectively drive the vitality of the automobile industry and the market.
Shell Finance: This year's ** work report mentions automobiles many times, what kind of signal does this release?
Ren Huanhuan: In this year's work report, "automobiles" were mentioned 5 times, of which 4 times mentioned "new energy vehicles" and 2 times mentioned "intelligent networked new energy vehicles". Compared with previous years, the frequency of automobiles and related mentions has increased significantly, releasing a positive signal to maintain the continued stability of industrial policies.
As an important pillar industry of the national economy, the automobile industry has a long industrial chain, a high degree of relevance, a wide range of employment, and a large consumption drive, and plays an important role in the national economic and social development. Secondly, new energy vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles, as an important direction of future development, reflect a high degree of attention at the first level, and the support in related fields will continue or even increase. In general, the steady growth signal of supply and demand in the automobile industry is significant, which will effectively drive the vitality of the automobile industry and the market.
Beike Finance: How to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles?
Chen Chuan: The development process of China's new energy vehicle market has gone through two stages, and before 2022, it is 1In the 0 era, BEVs (pure electric vehicles) have replaced A00 and A0 small fuel vehicles with their obvious economic acceleration, achieving a large increase; From 2023 onwards, it has entered 2In the 0 era, PHEV (plug-in hybrid electric vehicle) began to accelerate the replacement of high-grade fuel vehicles with the advantages of oil and electricity and high-performance product power, according to estimates, PHEV still has a window period of about 5 years under the TCO (total cost) advantage, which can be used as an important starting point to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles in the short and medium term. On the one hand, it is suggested that the PHEV policy management should be further strengthened and supporting management measures should be introduced in a targeted manner under the premise of supporting the development of BEV. On the other hand, enterprises need to strengthen the core competitiveness of PHEV, with the goal of improving range and safety, reducing costs and charging speed, and improving the overall performance and quality of new energy vehicles.
Wu Shengnan: The first suggestion is to establish and improve the standard requirements in terms of high safety, energy saving, and environmental protection to ensure that the industrial development is in line with the national strategic development; the second is to benefit the people more accurately, accurately identify effective needs, and let consumers truly feel the preferential benefits; The third is to strengthen supply, continuously improve the quality level of product supply and product cost performance, establish and improve the service system around the whole life cycle of products, and improve user experience; Fourth, optimize the structure, guided by high-quality development, continue to promote the optimization of the industrial structure and guide the rational layout of the industry; Fifth, according to local conditions, all localities should study and formulate scientific and reasonable incentive measures according to local conditions and industrial development needs.
With "steady growth" as the main line, it is particularly important to promote the gradual transformation of the automotive industry.
Shell Finance: **The work report proposes to "consolidate and expand the leading edge of the industry such as intelligent networked new energy vehicles". In your opinion, how to consolidate and expand the leading edge of the industry?
Ren Huanhuan: Benefiting from policy support, continuous breakthroughs in product technology, and improved consumer recognition, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 30% in 2023, and the industrial development has gradually shifted from electrification in the first half to intelligence in the second half. Although there are some different voices in the international community on the electrification transformation of the automobile industry, this cannot change the general trend of the electrification transformation of the automobile industry.
First, we must continue to strengthen technology R&D and disruptive innovation, increase R&D investment and AI model empowerment, improve the resilience and stability of the first chain, and strengthen cost reduction and efficiency increase; Second, it is necessary to further increase the market promotion of intelligent networked new energy vehicles, and expand the application scale of intelligent networked new energy vehicles in the whole society through policy incentives, publicity and promotion, and leading demonstrations in the public field; Third, optimize the policy environment, formulate and improve policies and measures to support the development of the intelligent networked new energy vehicle industry, accelerate the introduction of relevant regulations and standards, and stimulate enterprises' enthusiasm for R&D investment and technological innovation; Fourth, accelerate the construction of infrastructure such as charging facilities and intelligent networked roads, improve the convenience of new energy vehicles, and promote market popularization.
Beike Finance: How can the automotive industry take into account high-quality and sustainable development in the process of steady growth?
Ren Huanhuan: The automobile industry chain is long and has a great impact, and the impact on the national economy and social employment should be considered especially in the process of transformation, so it is particularly important to promote the gradual transformation of the automobile industry with "stable growth" as the main line. As new energy vehicles enter a new stage of market-oriented development, the leading edge of industry and scale has been initially established, and it is necessary to further strengthen the guidance of high-quality development and further achieve sustainable development. At present, the development of new energy vehicles in China is still facing the phenomenon of imbalance and inadequacy, which is mainly reflected in the large gap between the promotion of new energy in the north and the south, the large difference between urban and rural development, and the difference in the development rhythm of new energy for commercial vehicles
First, it is recommended to strengthen the guidance of key technical indicators of new energy vehicle products. In response to the current problems such as poor climate adaptability of products and unbalanced charging facilities, on the one hand, we will focus on strengthening support for technical research such as high-safety climate power batteries, heat pump air conditioning, and vehicle thermal management, improve the technical standards for thermal runaway of power batteries, enhance the applicability and safety of vehicle low-temperature, and enhance the advantages and resilience of the whole chain; On the other hand, further carry out the construction of charging infrastructure, realize the coordination of "vehicles" and "piles" to the countryside, and gradually penetrate into the sinking market.
The second is to strengthen the use of power batteries and raw materials. In particular, the cascade utilization of key components such as power batteries and the harmless treatment after scrapping.
Third, it is recommended to speed up the study and introduction of a commercial vehicle points management system. Focus on guiding commercial vehicles to accelerate their electrification process, achieve the pace of synchronous development with the passenger car field, and promote and guide the accelerated development of new energy commercial vehicles.
Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter Zhang Bing Bai Haotian.
Edited by Wang Jinyu
Proofread by Zhao Lin.