1. Overview of the story of the empty city plan
One of the four famous novels "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" records such a story. Zhuge Liang lost the strategically important street pavilion due to the misuse of Ma Tan. Sima Yi took advantage of the situation to lead an army of 150,000 to flock to the west city where Zhuge Liang was located. At that time, Kong Ming had no generals around him, only a group of civilian officials, and the 5,000 military horses he carried had already been divided into half to transport grain and grass first, leaving only 2,500 troops in the city. After hearing the news, everyone was overwhelmed. Kong Ming issued an order to teach "all the flags to be hidden; All the armies are guarding the city, and if there is any person who goes in and out in vain, and who speaks loudly, he will be beheaded! Four gates were opened, and twenty soldiers were used to sweep the streets with twenty sergeants in the guise of the people. If the Wei soldiers arrive, they must not move without permission, I have my own plan. Kong Ming wore a crane, wore a scarf, took two children, and brought a piano to the front of the city tower, sat by the railing, burned incense and played the piano.
After Sima Yi's vanguard army arrived at the city, seeing this scene, he did not dare to enter the city, and hurriedly reported to Sima Yi. Sima Yi didn't believe it, so he went to the front of the army to see it in person. After reading it, Sima Yi was puzzled and ordered the army to retreat. His son Sima Zhao said: "Could it be that Zhuge Liang has no soldiers and horses, so he pretends to be like this, why do you want to withdraw your troops, father?" Sima Yi explained: "Zhuge Liang was cautious in his life and never took risks. But now the gates of the city are wide open, and there will be an ambush in the city. If I march, I will fall for his plan. Now it is better to withdraw the troops quickly. So he withdrew his troops, and on the way to retreat, he was ambushed by Guan Xing and Zhang Bao.
2. Empty City Strategy and Game Theory
Although Zhuge Liang's empty city plan was a very risky operation, it was his best choice. If ordinary people encounter this situation, it is estimated that there are only three ways to think of it, one is to stick to the city and wait for rescue; the second is to abandon the city and flee; The third is to surrender the city. But Zhuge Kongming thought of the fourth option, which was also his best choice, that is, to empty the city. What is clear is that the first three paths are not ideal. First of all, holding on to the city and waiting for the rescue to end can only be a failure. Kong Ming had only 2,500 military horses around him, while Sima Yi had 150,000 troops. The two are not of the same magnitude, the city will soon be lost, and there will be no way to hold out until the arrival of reinforcements. So the only outcome of choosing the first path is failure. Secondly, abandoning the city and fleeing can only end in failure. Sima Yi's army has already approached the city, and it is visible to the naked eye that he will soon be caught up if he escapes. The third way is to surrender, once surrendered, Shu Han can directly declare its demise. The first three roads don't work. So it's no wonder that the civil officials around Zhuge Liang will all be disgraced when they hear the news that Sima Yi's army has been killed. But Zhuge Liang thought of a fourth option, that is, to put up an empty city plan. Let's use the payment matrix to illustrate why the empty city plan is the best choice for this Zhuge Liang.
From a static point of view, there are only two possibilities for Zhuge Liang to succeed, one is that Zhuge Liang will stick to the city, and at the same time Sima Yi will not attack; The other is that Zhuge Liang chose an empty city plan, and Sima Yi did not attack. Looking at it this way, Zhuge Liang's choice to stick to the city and the empty city plan have the same result. But we know that war is fought in a dynamic way, and the game is also a dynamic game, and the two sides do not have more than one chance to choose. In this game, Zhuge Liang is the first step, that is, Zhuge Liang makes the first step to choose, and Sima Yi then chooses according to Zhuge Liang's choice. Therefore, we are revising the above payment matrix. The payout matrix will become as follows:
The most important change is that when Zhuge Liang chooses to hold on, abandon the city or surrender, Sima Yi will choose to attack. Because he chose to stick to the city, Sima Yi was soon able to judge that the opponent's strength was insufficient, and Zhuge Liang lost his information advantage, and Sima Yi's best choice was to attack. The other choices of abandoning the city and surrendering are the same. The only choice is to choose the empty city strategy, and Sima Yi will have two choices: attacking or not attacking. The most interesting part here is that the two sides are asymmetrical, and for Sima Yi, he does not know the results of the payment matrix. In layman's terms, he didn't know how many soldiers and horses Zhuge Liang had, and what the probability of victory would be if he chose to attack. But the results of the payment matrix were clear to Zhuge Liang. Therefore, Zhuge Liang's best choice is the empty city plan, which is actually a bet on the probability that Sima Yi will choose not to attack when facing the empty city plan. This is also Zhuge Liang's only best choice.
3. Life inspiration
1) There are always more solutions than difficulties. We should be like Zhuge Liang in life, when we encounter problems, we might as well think more and diverge our thinking, maybe we can find an unexpected path.
2) Try everything. In fact, for Sima Yi, he is on the side of the information disadvantage. To break this information asymmetry, he can only choose to try to attack. With a single attack, he may be able to obtain more information, thus changing his information disadvantage. So we should be bold in our lives and not be afraid to do it. Once you try it, you may find that the results may be better than you think.