Pig prices continued to **, stimulating the market in the second quarter, and pig prices may soar again in March.
According to data analysis, on March 1, 2024, lean meat** will increase from ternary** to 1393 yuan kg, **015 yuan, pig prices continue to show the first trend line, the average price of live pigs center of gravity continues to move up, compared with 13 before the Lantern Festival52 yuan kg, pork**cumulative**0.41 yuan!
At present, the performance of the pig market is average, affected by factors such as the acceleration of the sow inventory, the abnormal fluctuation of domestic temperature at the end of last year, the long-term external loss at the end of the year, and the neglect of biosecurity precautions in pig farms, many pig farms have a serious epidemic phenomenon, resulting in a large number of sows, piglets and large pigs loss, and the production capacity of breeding at the end of the year has increased significantly, which has also boosted the market's phased optimism about the prospect of pig prices!
Among them, ** farms, through"Lose money and make money"After the pig fattening festival, the mentality of farmers resisting selling pigs at a loss has become stronger, the reluctance to sell has weakened, and the cost of feed has continued to decline, the cost of pig fattening has been reduced, the phenomenon of farmers increasing the weight of the fence, and the pace of slaughter of pigs has slowed down. For the group's pig enterprises, with the highest pig price, the pace of slaughter of large-scale pig enterprises has slowed down, and there is a wait-and-see price increase phenomenon at the end of the month, and the number of pigs slaughtered in stages has decreased significantly!
Due to the market's optimistic prospect of pig prices, there are more empty columns for secondary fattening after the holiday, and the pace of re-enforcing is gradually accelerating, and the phenomenon of secondary fattening in many places in the south has reached the lowest point, which not only increases the optimism of the first farm, but also the scale of pigs is transferred from the slaughterhouse to the factory, and the difficulty of purchasing pigs from the slaughterhouse increases!
On the demand side, after the Lantern Festival, life in various fields has fully recovered, the demand for catering and meals is strong, the orders of downstream slaughterhouses have gradually increased, and the average daily slaughter volume has also been raised.
Therefore, with the support of multiple positive factors, pig prices have opened a price increase mode! Personally, I believe that in the short term, due to the stimulation of the market by secondary fattening, the breeding end is strong and reluctant to sell, and the pig price is **"Can't stop",**The center of gravity may be further raised! However, for the prospect of pig prices in March, the market may be retaliatory **, the author is skeptical!
On the one hand, pig production capacity can be delayed! At the end of February, the second entry of fattening active, and the group pig company slaughter rhythm slowed down, active price reduction mentality support increased, in March pig slaughter scale or a certain increase, ** pattern is relatively loose. Especially around the Spring Festival, the frozen pork in the slaughterhouse has gone bad, and the recent white strips have continued, and the pressure on frozen pork to stock is greater, and the pork capacity is relatively relaxed!
On the other hand, it is difficult to continue to promote secondary fattening! In particular, with the severity of the rebound in pig prices, the replacement cost of normal pigs will gradually increase, the sentiment of secondary fattening is either cautious or superimposed, the frozen pig inventory is high, the enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises is not high, and the consumer demand side is still in the off-season!
Therefore, based on market pressure, I personally believe that in the short term, affected by emotional orientation, pig prices may be stable and strong, but affected by the pressure and changes in the mood of secondary breeding, there is no shortage of pig prices again The risk of falling back again, and the pig price in March does not have the opportunity to retaliate!
Pig price**"Can't stop", secondary breeding stimulates the market, and the pig price in March is retaliatory**? What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, ** on the Internet!