[Disk analysis].
The Federal Reserve is currently considering cutting interest rates twice, and there may only be one in 2024, and the news directly caused U.S. stocks to open higher, U.S. Treasury yields accelerated downward, and the U.S. dollar index extended its decline to a one-month low, ** hit a new high again. The trend of the a** field is relatively strong, and the strength of financial stocks and heavyweight stocks during the meeting is more obvious, and it is still necessary to pay attention to some changes in the policy and news aspects of the market, and you can wait for the opportunity after the adjustment, and there is no need to chase up.
Ride a bull to see a bear spotFor the current trend, the market has a lot of doubts about whether there is a new driver, in fact, we compare ** with US stocks, US housing prices, and Bitcoin, and find that the trend of ** is not beyond expectations. The Fed's interest rate continues to be high, and the return of dollars to the United States has boosted the new high of American assets, which is a more reasonable phenomenon. The demand for ** from global central banks is still rising, and the increase in ** reserves will continue. Although the short-term volatility rise contains the most important risks, we maintain optimistic expectations for gold prices in the medium to long term. **Continue to be strong**, continue to hit new highs.
The three major indexes opened mixed, the Shanghai Index was obviously stronger, the two cities rose more and fell less, the theme plate of transportation equipment, nonferrous metals, ** and other concepts performed strongly, medicine, CXO, electrical equipment and other concepts performed poorly. The concept of liquid-cooled servers has been repeatedly active, Chuanrun shares have 4 boards, Langjin Technology has risen by more than 10%, Tuowei Information, Feirongda, etc. have followed suit, IDC**, between 2022 and 2027, the compound annual growth rate of China's liquid-cooled server market will reach 547%, and the market size is expected to reach $8.9 billion by 2027. Non-ferrous metal concept stocks collectively strengthened, Zijin Mining rose more than 3% to a record high, Western Mining rose more than 5% to a record high, Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd., Huafeng Aluminum, etc. have followed suit, downstream demand under the background of steady recovery, the supply of rigidity, demand recovery of industrial metal leaders have greater elasticity, ** is expected or gradually reversed.
The automobile industry chain sector is active, Yibin Technology, Bohai Automobile and other shares of the daily limit, the country said that at the end of last year, China's civilian car ownership reached 33.6 billion units, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners and other major categories of home appliances more than 3 billion units, automobiles, home appliances can also create a trillion-scale market space. **The concept has repeatedly risen, Yintai **, Lao Fengxiang and other stocks rose more than 5%, continuing to hit a record high, and the ** price in New York closed at 2158 per ounce in April$2, an increase of 076%, the main force of Shanghai Gold exceeded 500 yuan, both hitting a record high. Rare earth permanent magnet plate *** Huayang new materials 2 boards, Zhongke Magnetics rose more than 10%, benefiting from large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in, rare earth permanent magnet motors are expected to open demand growth points, rare earth ** is expected to bottom out, rare earth permanent magnet links are also expected to recover profitability.
Automobile stocks rose sharply, Cialis rose nearly 3% to a record high, Yaxing Bus, BAIC Blue Valley, etc., this year to promote automobiles, home appliances, home decoration and other consumer goods to trade in. Power stocks moved in the afternoon**, Xichang Electric Power straightened the limit, Jiantou Energy, Star Power, etc., and the national power generation increased by 11 year-on-year in the first two months7%, industrial electricity consumption increased by 97%。The tourism hotel sector rose at the end of the day, Dalian Shengya 3 boards, Changbai Mountain, Tianmu Lake, Xi'an Catering and other stocks rose more than 5%, China Tourism Research Institute**, the number of outbound tourists in 2024 will reach 1300 million person-times, the inbound tourism market for foreigners in 2024 is expected to recover to 50% of 2019, and the inbound tourism market for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is expected to fully recover.
GEM:
[**Prediction].
The Shanghai Composite Index rose and fell back on Thursday, turning green near midday, and then weakened significantly at noon, and there was no strong protection of the main funds. The intraday explosion rate increased, and the two cities fell more and rose less, which also shows that the main funds "just fall sharply", and a small amount of ** will not be ignored, which also leads to obvious intraday differentiation. Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 3020 points.
The ChiNext index fell more than 2% intraday on Thursday, showing an obvious **trend**, and the theme sector is still rotating**. Brother Niu found that the market mainly follows the influence of the peripheral market, the previous technology, semiconductors, new energy, and the current **, are the first to rise sharply in the periphery, and the domestic funds to keep up with the rhythm, indicating that the A-share funds have no direction, and can even say: "I won't look for it, I can't find the direction!" "Next, pay attention to whether the GEM index can stabilize above 1800 points.
[Gold Rush Plan].
From the perspective of A-share pricing model and pricing power, the style is expected to grow from dividend strategy to dividend in 2024, and the leading style will return, and the CSI A50 Kechuang 50 is worth paying attention to. For growth and small- and mid-cap styles, in the current market and in the context of increased risk appetite in spring, it is expected that small- and medium-cap and growth styles have a higher probability of outperforming value. Short-term** mid-to-mid growth styles and small- and mid-cap will continue to dominate, and long-term can continue to focus on high-dividend strategies and pro-cyclical directions.
The concepts of non-ferrous metals, scarce resources, and ** in the theme sector are the main participating sectors in the net inflow of funds, and the concepts of SORA, CXO, and mixed reality are the sectors with relatively large net outflows of funds. Ride a bull to see a bear spotFor **, continue to wait for new ** opportunities, and there is no need to guess the top of all dollar-like assets that have been hitting new highs. Riding the bull and watching the bear believes that the global geopolitical crisis is still relatively tense and will not disappear in a short time, the global central bank's demand for ** is still increasing, and the increase in ** reserves will continue.
With the rise in gold prices, consumers' enthusiasm for ** jewelry has also continued to rise. The preferential strength of many ** stores and ** jewelry brands in Beijing is still in the range of 20 yuan to 30 yuan per gram. And *** did not "dissuade" consumers, some consumers said that the design of ** jewelry is getting younger and younger, there are many styles to choose from, and the value preservation function is also very attractive.
Historically, the Fed has performed better in the later stages of its rate hikes. At the same time, in recent years, the global economic recovery has faced uncertainties, and geopolitical conflicts have increased the risks and hidden dangers. These all highlight the investment value of ** as a safe-haven asset. In the context of the major Western economies represented by the Federal Reserve entering the channel of interest rate cuts, ** as a safe-haven asset is expected to continue to be favored by investors and consumers.
The enthusiasm of major domestic ** jewelry companies to open stores is high, and the confidence of franchisees to open stores after the epidemic has been significantly enhanced, and the brand side has also given greater support, and the industry is expected to maintain a better sales performance. ** Soared, completely standing at a record high, the market sentiment is more excited. For **, it has been out of the constraints of US Treasury yields in the short term, and it is largely a feedback on liquidity.