What has plagued the market over the past two years is that money has been idling within the financial system and not being able to enter circulation.
Broad money M2 increased by 8. year-on-year at the end of January 20247% to 29763 trillion yuan (from data released by the central bank).
With such a huge M2 scale, the market does not feel that there is more money.
Why? Because of shrinking demand, overcapacity, investment and consumption willingness, continue to decline, real estate continues to be sluggish and downward.
No amount of money is put anywhere. The property market, which is a natural reservoir, is not only unable to flow in, but also continues to leak out.
Assets** have been falling endlessly, and liquidity has been further lost, the debt ratio of residents has been passively raised, and expectations are too pessimistic, resulting in the active downgrading of consumption. In the case of insufficient external demand, domestic demand has also fallen into a quagmire, and the small money for eating, drinking and having fun is willing to be used, but bulk consumption has invariably contracted.
You must know that as a manufacturing superpower, domestic production capacity is oriented to the global market. The sluggish global consumer demand, coupled with the decoupling between China and the United States, has caused the loss of a large number of overseas orders, while domestic demand continues to be sluggish, making the manufacturing industry even worse.
The lack of orders also leads to a lack of jobs, which hits confidence and expectations, weakens purchasing power, and further impacts the real estate market, where supply and demand are unbalanced, which in turn affects the upstream and downstream industrial chains, which in turn continue to reduce employment and income.
On the other hand, the real estate has been blocked, affecting land finance, the construction of infrastructure, people's livelihood, municipal and other projects has decreased and slowed down, and a large number of jobs have been lost, and even the income of some people in the system has been greatly affected, and a major force has been lost in the fields of bulk consumption, education, and housing purchase.
If you don't consume, I don't consume, if you don't take out a loan, I won't take a mortgage, who will place the order and who will make money?
While saving money, loans cannot be released, and many of those released are also used to replace old debts, and the market has never been able to liven up, and the currency multiplier has not been able to rise for a long time.
This is a disease, and it must be cured.
The dragon is coming, and the Eastern Dragon is bound to do a big job this year to recover the past two years.
How to do it, of course, is to fight for the economy with all your might.
How to spell, two words, spend money.
Unclog one channel and open two pockets.
Channels, that is, the channels through which money circulates, allow money to flow out of the financial system and circulate in the investment and consumer markets.
The first pocket is the residents' savings pocket. Money is taken out to spend, buy a house, buy a car, buy appliances, buy large items. The house is old, the demolition should be demolished, and the replacement should be replaced, which corresponds to the big game of construction of the three major projects.
Cars, home appliances, furniture, etc. should be replaced with new ones. The high-level meeting in late February, which proposed large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, has played a clear card.
Clever readers will already know that getting residents to open their pockets is not something that can be done with a few documents and slogans. Naturally, the large-scale special fund subsidies will be in place one after another.
The resumption of PSL and the 100 billion housing rental support plan are targeted blood transfusions for the three major projects, which is also a major artery for the flow of money to the market.
The second pocket is for the enterprise. How? The company is already bitter enough, haha, and they still want to open their pockets and throw money? Definitely.
Enterprises first open their pockets to receive money, and then open up the money.
On the one hand, we are engaged in the construction of three major projects, killing at least three birds with one stone. First, it can meet or improve the basic housing needs of most residents, second, it can help real estate destocking and relieve the operating pressure of real estate enterprises, and third, it can absorb employment, increase enterprise orders, and put money into the market with the help of demolition and construction.
The first to receive this water must be an enterprise in the field of production and operation.
On the other hand, large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods will create a large number of orders for enterprises and boost the sluggish consumer market.
At least kill three birds with one stone.
First, it can realize large-scale equipment upgrading, improve production efficiency, update residents' old cars, home appliances and other large consumer goods, improve the user experience, improve safety, environmental protection and economy.
Second, it can greatly increase the demand for enterprise orders, increase revenue and efficiency, and absorb more jobs.
Third, we can also use this pipeline to release water to the market through subsidies, tax reductions and exemptions.
After receiving water, enterprises will gradually open their pockets and throw money out: expand investment as needed, hire more labor, and appropriately increase wages and benefits according to market rules.
As a result, money flows out of the financial system, the consumer market is revitalized, orders are increased, employment and income increase, and the economy is expected to return to the track of steady growth.
At present, the purchasing power of residents is actually still there, and the balance of RMB deposits at the end of January was 28974 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92%。What is lacking is confidence and expectation, and the willingness to consume.
With the continuous increase in the real estate bailout, the purchase and sale restrictions will be fully lifted, the purchase tax and fee will be deeply optimized, and the interest rate will continue to be significantly reduced, which will most likely be seen soon.
At the same time, the scope of urban village transformation continued to expand, state-owned assets began to appear, and the acquisition of commercial housing was transferred to security and leasing. The destocking action has been rapidly promoted, and the implementation of the white list of real estate projects has been accelerated, helping real estate enterprises to obtain financing and alleviating the operational pressure of real estate enterprises in the construction projects.
Behind the harsh winter of the property market, everything is quietly developing in a good direction.
When the economy is back to good, people's expectations are positive, and confidence is back, under the superposition of the two forces of the continuous rescue of the market and the continuous improvement of the economy, can the real estate that has been falling in Pingyang for a long time not be supported?
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