After the Spring Festival, the market's expectations for the two sessions began to be fulfilled after the meeting. Judging from the content published in the report of the two sessions, some of them show that there is still room for continued growth in future demand, but it also reflects a certain pressure. The spot side is currently facing high inventory pressure. Due to the high pressure on their own inventory, steel mills continue to transmit inventory to the spot market, resulting in the current market sales chaos.
Extracting from the most asked by the market recently, it is basically when will the decline stop in the near future? Is it or is it? Can**? Do you want to dump the goods? Can the disk be **? What can I do to reduce my risk?
It is not difficult to see from the basic methods of current trading in the market, led by steel mills, to continuously promote the risk transfer of spot resources; At present, the main means of operation of steel mills is the transfer of steel mill inventory to social inventory, on the one hand, it is to increase the delivery of the agreed amount, including the delivery of the agreed amount of resources in winter storage; On the other hand, it is through the way of downward adjustment to stimulate the inventory of steel mills to show a downward rate. And how do spot traders trade? It is nothing more than selling at a reduced price, and the market can be said to be very chaotic.
Judging from all the factors that affect the current situation, it is nothing more than what was mentioned in the previous article, the time mismatch between supply and demand, coupled with the short control, the rhythm has not been destroyed, and the market inventory pressure has been forced to amplify, resulting in manufacturers are interested in cashing out resources, and returning funds to reduce risks. But often at this time, the market purchase demand will be relatively limited, resulting in the situation of continuing to stampede.
In the final analysis, in fact, it is the prominence of the pressure of the stage, as well as the time interruption of demand, which is caused by the fact that if you look at the past situation, the demand often starts in March and April. In the past two years, due to the relatively tight capital of the enterprise, the resumption time of the project has been continuously postponed. If we say that from the perspective of the first day, whether it is a steel mill or a businessman, they are all in the pre-holiday, but often when the various influencing factors are released in a pile, it is easy to ignore the fundamental factors.
In addition, the panic is actually due to concerns about the overall demand. In fact, from the perspective of the economic cycle, the economic growth target is still relatively positive. The latest work report points out that the main expected goal of this year's development is to increase GDP by about 5%; More than 12 million new jobs were created in urban areas, and the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5about 5%; Household consumption** increased by about 3%; Household income growth and economic growth are synchronized; The balance of payments remained basically balanced; Grain production 1more than 3 trillion catties; Energy consumption per unit of GDP is reduced by 2About 5%, the quality of the ecological environment continues to improve. This target is higher than the 3% real growth in 2022, but lower than the 5. expected in 20225%, which is also lower than the average annual growth rate of 5 in the past five years2%。If you look at the comparison of the data, there are some concerns. However, judging from the current actual situation and the pace of recovery in the post-epidemic era, it is not easy to stabilize the current goal. Judging from the main tone of the country's economic development, it is still stability. The setting of this goal is actually the result of combining objective factors, comprehensively analyzing the domestic and foreign situation, and comprehensively considering various factors such as stability, tapping potential, protecting people's livelihood, and preventing risks. From an economic point of view, the direction of China's economic expectation to continue to improve has not changed. In addition, it also reflects that the overall development pattern has actually undergone some qualitative changes. Seeking progress while maintaining stability is one aspect, and high-quality development is one of the country's current key goals. The main purpose of adjusting the economic target, including the introduction of some measures, is to promote high-quality development and better protect and improve people's livelihood, rather than blindly pursuing a change in a number.
From the perspective of the demand side, it is nothing more than real estate and manufacturing, so it is not difficult to see from the content of the first work report that there is actually a certain plan for these two.
From the perspective of real estate, the market is still most worried about the risk release and risk prevention of real estate. Then the first work report also mentioned that it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve major economic and financial risks, which mainly involve two risks, namely real estate risk and local debt risk, which is also the first time that the risk-related content of real estate enterprises has entered the first work report. We combine this sentence and recall the real estate support policies introduced in the past two years, it can be seen that high-quality enterprises, especially high-quality head enterprises, are still within the scope of key promotion and support, that is, last year, we always mentioned a point, although the demand for real estate has shrunk, but the overall base still exists, and the market demand has not appeared 0 data reflected, but compared with the previous peak moment, there has indeed been a certain decline.
However, for real estate, there is still a certain sense of risk prevention, according to the relevant departments before the holiday, real estate enterprises from the construction progress, will be subject to certain restrictions, 12 provinces with higher debts in addition to basic livelihood projects, 24 years shall not appear new projects. In addition, if the total investment completion rate of the project is less than 50%, the construction will be delayed or stopped in principle, and if it is higher than 50% but there are major problems, the construction shall not be continued. The document requires that relevant policies be adjusted only after the local debt risk is reduced to a medium and low level. In addition, after the holiday, Yunnan Province issued relevant documents, and more than 1,000 projects in the province were suspended, which caused the market to worry about the demand for real estate this year.
According to Lange Iron and Steel Network, take the demand province, Guangzhou, the current priority to ensure the supply of key projects such as: Ziyun Airport Project, Zhuhai-Zhaozhou Railway, Shenzhen-Shantou Railway, Guangzhou Metro, Zhujiang Village Renovation, venue construction and other based on the payment of the problem, the suspension of ** more, and some have already started, but this month can not be received, the project has no output value, and it will be stopped at the end of March at the earliest. Therefore, it depends on the specific progress in the later stage, and excessive worry will not solve the problem.
From the perspective of the real estate industry as a whole, the real estate market after the Spring Festival showed a trend of recovery and recovery, compared with factors such as the growth of market transaction volume and the bottoming of housing prices, it can be seen in disguise that the current housing demand has a certain support. The repair of the new housing market is weaker than and later than the repair of second-hand housing, mainly because consumers still have a wait-and-see attitude towards whether the risks of real estate enterprises can be effectively resolved and whether the new housing projects can be delivered on time and quality, which will lag in starting, so the most concerned at present is still the problem of risk resolution, because this is related to the key to the stable repair of the real estate market.
Relatively speaking, the demand of the manufacturing industry is optimistic about the real estate industry, from the performance of the manufacturing industry, the performance of household appliances ice washing, new energy, ships, and military industry are relatively optimistic. This is also the main reason why the flow of molten iron in steel mills is mainly to coils, including the growth of coil inventory.
Since 2023, with the improvement of overseas inflation + low inventory + recovery in demand, home appliance exports have maintained positive growth for 9 consecutive months, and the number of home appliance exports in China since the beginning of the year has been +9 year-on-year6%/+9.2%。Since August, the growth rate of exports has further increased, and the growth rate of value and quantity has basically stabilized at more than 10% and 20%. From the perspective of leading enterprises, Haier has ranked among the top 10 global brands in Brandz China for 7 consecutive years and the first brand of large household appliances in the world for 14 consecutive years. Midea continues to expand its overseas manufacturing capacity, and currently has factories in 16 countries, including Brazil, Italy, Thailand, India, Japan, and the United States. Although there have been concerns about the contraction of manufacturing demand after the end of the epidemic, the release of phased demand is still conducive to the performance of the manufacturing industry stronger than the demand for real estate.
In addition, it was learned from the first work report that this year's first budget investment plans to arrange 700 billion yuan to actively expand effective investment. Give full play to the amplification effect of investment, focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation, new infrastructure, energy conservation, emission reduction and carbon reduction, strengthen people's livelihood and other economic and social weak areas to make up for shortcomings, promote flood control, drainage and disaster relief infrastructure construction, promote the renewal and technological transformation of various production equipment and service equipment, and accelerate the implementation of major projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan". This year's budget investment plans to arrange 700 billion yuan. Zheng Shajie, director of the national government, said that recently, the state will work with relevant departments to study and formulate systematic policy documents, that is, to promote large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in action plan, overall is four major special actions, including equipment renewal, consumer goods trade-in, recycling and the improvement of implementation standards. Among them, in terms of equipment renewal actions, the focus is on 7 major areas, including industry, agriculture, construction, education, transportation, cultural tourism, medical and other fields The demand for equipment replacement is huge. Zheng Shajie said that with the in-depth promotion of high-quality development, the demand for equipment renewal will continue to expand, and we initially estimate that this is a huge market of more than 5 trillion yuan.
From the overall planning point of view, the future manufacturing demand or continue to grow space, although the current domestic demand to increase there is a certain resistance, but from the perspective of equipment renewal, domestic manufacturing demand still has a very large space for development, especially the reference of 5 trillion data, the overall coil will still be stronger than the rebar ** trend.
From the perspective of funds, it is also the most worrying issue for the market, and the state plans to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, and issue 1 trillion yuan this year. **The work report said that in order to systematically solve the problem of funding for the construction of some major projects in the process of building a strong country and national rejuvenation, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years starting from this year, which will be used for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas, and 1 trillion yuan will be issued this year. Although there is no specific release time yet, it will form a strong impetus to the market based on previous release experience.
On the whole, the market is still running in the first cycle in the short cycle, especially the prominent contradictions at this stage, which still need time to ease. From the perspective of spot operation, the bottoming has not yet been completed, and there is room for continued downward movement, but it is not excluded that there will be a small amount in the middle, and it is necessary to focus on the direct impact of changes in the supply and demand structure on the market in the later stage. From the perspective of the disk, the thread phased low point refers to the 3600-3650 position. (Lange Steel, Wang Siya).