Qu XianmingSince the beginning of industrial civilization in the middle of the 18th century, the history of the rise and fall of world powers has repeatedly proved that without a strong manufacturing industry, there will be no strong country and nation.
Today, while manufacturing accounts for less than 12% of GDP in the United States, 70% of R&D spending, 60% of the number of scientists and engineers are invested in manufacturing, and 90%** of patents are spent in manufacturing.
Building an internationally competitive manufacturing industry is the only way for China to enhance its comprehensive national strength and ensure the construction of a world power. To form a new driving force for China's economic growth, form new advantages in economic development, and promote supply-side structural reform, the focus is on the manufacturing industry, the difficulty is in the manufacturing industry, and the way out is also in the manufacturing industry.
"Promote the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry and unswervingly build a manufacturing power".It has also become a banner for uniting people's hearts and mobilizing the whole society to promote Chinese-style modernization.
Critical moment: where is China's manufacturing industry going?
New Hope |Book.
Beijing United Publishing Company.
March 2024.
One. China's industrialization has bid farewell to the era of heavy chemical industry and entered the middle and late stages of industrialization. The development of the manufacturing industry has entered a new normal of medium and high growth
In 2015, China released the "Made in China 2025", which is known as the "China Manufacturing Power Strategy" in the industry, which greatly promoted the development process of China's manufacturing industry. Today, China's status as the world's largest manufacturing country has been maintained for 13 years, and the added value of the manufacturing industry exceeds that of the United States, Germany and Japan combined, and has an absolute leading advantage in the scale of the manufacturing industry.
China's manufacturing system is complete, the domestic market is huge, it has relative independence under the condition of internal circulation, and the industrial mobilization ability and industrial coordination ability have unique institutional advantages.
Traditional industries, especially textiles, food and other livelihood industries, have become the main areas of intelligent manufacturing and green manufacturing, transforming from the so-called "sunset industry" to "sunrise industry";
Some key areas of the manufacturing industry are gradually forming new advantages in global competition, such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic equipment "new three" international market share is far ahead, communication equipment, rail transit equipment, power equipment three major industries in the world's leading position, aerospace equipment, marine engineering equipment and high-tech ships, rare earth materials, supercomputers have reached the world's advanced level. These industries have moved away from the "follow innovation" model and are shifting to the "leading innovation" model.
Made in China has strong resilience, more than 1.4 billion Chinese can endure hardships and dare to fight, especially the majority of private small and medium-sized enterprises, in the severe environment can not only survive, but also move forward, the more courageous the more war.
China has become the world's second largest economy, and China's technology has never been so close to the world's most advanced level as it is today. Of course, in terms of the overall level, we are still in the third camp in the camp of global manufacturing powers. While there is still a gap with manufacturing powerhouses, this gap is narrowing.
At present, the international situation is complex and severe, and major countries are vying to be the first to lay out and seize the commanding heights of advanced manufacturing; China's economy is stable and improving, but structural factors and cyclical factors are superimposed, and the downward pressure is increasing; A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation has formed a historical sink with China's accelerated transformation of economic development modeThe development of China's manufacturing industry is in a period of important strategic opportunities
Since 2018, the friction between China and the United States has continued to escalate, and the United States will point the finger at the ten key areas proposed by "Made in China 2025". On the one hand, the United States and other developed countries accuse China of intervening too much in the market, and at the same time, they are also stepping up the formulation of their own industrial plans and industrial policies, and even legalizing them.
In addition, the United States has also imposed precise sanctions on a large number of Chinese high-tech companies such as Huawei, ZTE, DJI, and Jinhua, imposed a blockade on China's high-tech exports, cut off key technologies, equipment, and materials, and imposed restrictions on Chinese students studying in engineering, and even wanted to bypass China's restructuring chain. The United States wants to keep China's manufacturing industry in the middle and low end of the global value chain forever.
Countries in Southeast Asia and North America have taken advantage of the friction between China and the United States to accelerate the transfer of industries. Vietnam** also proposed to basically build itself into a modern industrial country by 2030.
At present, China's manufacturing industry is being affected in the world"There is interception in front, and there are chasing soldiers in the rear."of two-way extrusion. The friction between China and the United States is a protracted war, and the United States will have some other follow-up measures.
The global industrial chain is being deconstructed and reconstructed, we must maintain strategic focus, first do our own things well, strengthen core technology research and development innovation, aim at the goal of building a manufacturing power, and unswervingly move forward.
In the past five years, the proportion of China's manufacturing industry in GDP has declined too fast. If the decline continues uncontrollably, it will fall below 26% by 2025, and there is a danger of "industrial hollowing out" and a rapid decline in employment.
Some developed countries have had to propose "re-industrialization" to attract the return of manufacturing due to the financial crisis caused by excessive "de-industrialization". Some South American countries have allowed their economies to "turn from real to virtual" and fall into the "middle-income trap", and their economic development has stagnated for a long time. These lessons deserve a high degree of vigilance on the part of our country.
The development of China's manufacturing industry is facing a series of practical difficulties.
First, high-speed expansion has brought serious overcapacity, and there has been a situation of excessive low-price competition. De-capacity and de-inventory have become a difficult dilemma to solve.
Second, the growth rate of private investment continues to be weak, entrepreneurs are not confident enough, and expectations are weak.
Third, resource and environmental constraints are becoming tighter and tighter, land has doubled in more than ten years, the working-age population has declined for 6 consecutive years, it is difficult for enterprises to recruit workers, it is even more difficult to retain people, and there is a serious shortage of talents.
Fourth, the growth of large enterprises has been hindered, and among the world's top 500 companies, the profits of 10 Chinese banks account for 50% of the total profits of China's listed companies7%, and the profits of 60 manufacturing enterprises accounted for only 2016%。
Fifth, there is great pressure on the survival of enterprises. Encountering the heavy pressure of the three mountains of "market iceberg, financing mountain, and transformation volcano", coupled with the excessive burden of taxes and fees, stifled the vitality of enterprises and the ability to continue to expand operations.
In addition,"Made in China" still has the problem of being big but not strong
For example, the industrial foundation is weak, the R&D investment is insufficient, the independent innovation ability is not strong, and the dependence on manufacturing technology exceeds 50%;
The core technology and key components are controlled by others, such as chips, aircraft engine single crystal blades, and high-speed rail bearings rely on foreign countries;
High-process chips, aero engines, and industrial software are in urgent need of breakthroughs;
The new generation of information technology industry, high-end CNC machine tools and robots, aerospace equipment, marine engineering equipment and high-tech ships, advanced rail transit equipment, energy-saving and new energy vehicles, power equipment, agricultural machinery equipment, new materials, biomedicine and high-performance medical equipment, most of the industries in the above ten fields still have a large gap compared with the international advanced level;
The product quality problems are prominent, and the reliability, stability and safety are not high;
The industrial structure is unreasonable, the proportion of resource-intensive industries is large, the proportion of technology-intensive industries and service-oriented manufacturing that provides services to users is low, the competitive advantage index of high-end fields and high-tech products is low, and the industrial structure is still in the middle and low end;
The efficiency of energy and resource utilization is low, and the global proportion of GDP is not commensurate with the proportion of energy consumption, and China's energy consumption per unit of GDP is about 1 of the world average8 times.
Two. If China wants to become a world manufacturing power, it mustMake up for shortcomings, forge long boards, and fix bottom plates, and build a modern manufacturing system
First, organize relevant departments to sort out the shortcomings related to the national economy and people's livelihood and national defense security, and the state will coordinate the strength of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises to realize the linkage between the first and the local, carry out collaborative innovation, and make breakthroughs one by one. In this process, China should focus on core components (components) and key basic materials as the focus of the project to make up for shortcomings.
Second, we need to nurture world-leading industries. Consolidate the world's leading position in the three major industries of communication equipment, rail transit equipment and power equipment; Enhance advantageous industries and strive to catch up with the world's most advanced level; The six traditional advantageous industries of iron and steel, petroleum refining, household appliances, textiles, agricultural product processing and building materials will be cultivated into the world's leading industries.
Third, we need to create world-class industrial clusters. Efforts will be made to form 40 50 world-class industrial clusters with a large proportion of the global industry, world-class leading enterprises and specialized division of labor systems and collaboration networks, and world-leading core technologies and continuous innovation capabilities.
Fourth, create a world-class enterprise. Create a good business environment, deepen enterprise reform, and form 40 50 world-class enterprises by 2025. These enterprises can have a voice and influence in the development of the global industry, representing the overall image of the new generation of "Made in China".
Fifth, guide the growth of "first-class champion" enterprises. Encourage private small and medium-sized enterprises to develop in the direction of "specialization, refinement, special innovation", and form 700 800 world-class "first-class champion" enterprises by 2025, so as to improve the ability of specialized production, service and collaboration. Small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, if they do not have the strength to manufacture complete machines and large machinery, will concentrate on working in a subdivision such as bearings, seals, molds, etc., and provide parts, components, supporting products and supporting services for large enterprises, large projects and industrial chains.
Sixth, it is necessary to formulate industrial policies that are in line with international practice and reflect Chinese characteristics, and replace selective policies with more inclusive policies. Strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights, cancel the threshold for entry, and gradually move towards the "three zeros" (zero tariff, zero subsidies, and zero barriers).
Seventh, the integration of data and reality will promote the digital transformation of manufacturing enterprises. The deep integration of the new generation of information technology and the manufacturing industry is triggering a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, and the digitalization, networking and intelligence of the manufacturing industry are the core of this change. By seizing this opportunity, it is possible to achieve transcendence.
Eighth, I would like to emphasize in particular:Strengthening the construction of industrial infrastructure is not only a long way to go, but also urgent
After the reform and opening up, both the people's livelihood and national defense construction need final products. China can produce ordinary parts, but if it needs to be developed and cannot be developed at that time, we buy them from abroad.
China has a late-mover advantage, and we can use parts from other countries to directly manufacture the main engine, but this has led to the hollowing out of Chinese products. We can make aircraft shells, but we can't make engines and airborne equipment; We can make the engine of a ship, but we can't make a pump valve; We have built more than 40,000 kilometers of high-speed rail lines, but we have not overcome the manufacturing technology of high-speed rail bearings.
On the contrary, Germany cannot buy parts in the stage of industrial development, and all of them need to be made by themselves, so its parts manufacturing technology and complete machine manufacturing technology are developing simultaneously.
According to the "Catalogue of Industrial Base Innovation and Development (2021 Edition)" released by the National Industrial Base Expert Committee in 2022, among the 26 key areas, a total of 1,456 basic products that have a great impact on the national economy and national defense construction have weak links. Among them, domestic blank and import-dependent products accounted for 294%, and 44 products that have been developed but whose quality and performance cannot meet the needs of the product1%, and 26 products that have been successfully developed but not industrialized5%。
What useful lessons can we get from the Sino-US friction? Especially in the case of Huawei and ZTE chips being sanctioned, we should wake up.
Because of the weak industrial foundation, sometimes a part and a material can put an enterprise or even the entire industry to death. It's really "if the foundation is not firm, the earth will shake the mountains". Core components such as chips, sensors, controllers, aircraft engines, and bearings must be in their own hands. Only in this way can we not be "stuck" by others.
China's manufacturing power strategy" mentions five major projects, namely the construction project of manufacturing innovation center, intelligent manufacturing project, industrial strong foundation project, green manufacturing project, and high-end equipment innovation project.
After the implementation of these five major projects, I found that everyone is very interested in intelligent manufacturing, but they are not so interested in industrial strong foundation projects, core basic components, key basic materials and other fields.
Since serving as the deputy director of the Intelligent Manufacturing Expert Committee of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, I have been deeply touched by this. In practice, if it is an intelligent manufacturing project, the best at all levels are very willing to pay money, and once it involves a long-term investment similar to the strong industrial base, there will be fear of difficulties in various places.
We have organized more than 100 academicians and more than 1,000 experts to sort out and release more than 1,000 "five basics" (basic parts and components, basic materials, basic processes and equipment, industrial basic software, and industrial technology foundation) that are needed in various fields. I hope to mobilize the strength of the whole society, so that more enterprises can claim the task, so as to comprehensively improve the level of China's industrial base.
The development of China's manufacturing has attracted worldwide attention, with thousands of wonderful and unlimited prospects.
Dr. Xinwang studied economics and has visited many manufacturing enterprises in the southeast coastal area over the years. He has a lot of information and a good understanding of policy. From the perspective of an economist, he walked into the Chinese manufacturing scene, told the story of Chinese manufacturing, and judged the trend of Chinese manufacturing.
It is worth mentioning that the Chinese think tank has done a good job in recent years, and has played a good role in promoting and publicizing the whole society to attach importance to the construction of a manufacturing power.
Critical Moment: Where to Go for China's Manufacturing Industry" book, with a broad vision, solid logic, keen and unique insight, with a large number of vivid and interesting examples, tells us about the difficulties and bright future of China's manufacturing transformation at the critical moment of the global industrial chain reconstruction, which is worth reading.
The author is a member of the National Manufacturing Power Construction Strategy Advisory Committee, vice chairman of the National Industrial Foundation Expert Committee, and director of the Manufacturing Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Engineering