——Today's disk is exactly the same as my weekend's summary trend, big technology stocks adjust the cyclical stocks, CNOOC, China's ships are really strong, represented by the first and scarce resources sector is equally strong, the high-end goods discount stock WuXi AppTec mentioned a few days ago has driven the entire innovative drug sector significantly. Since it's the same as what I judged, there's nothing to say. Let's get to the point of today.
There are many lovely friends who write to ask what are cyclical stocks and why should they be optimistic about cyclical stocks? Although I have already addressed these two issues in previous articles. In order to deepen your impression, I would like to explain it once again.
First, the cycle refers to the profit cycle or the product cycle or the manufacturing cycle. There are very large fluctuations from low to high. For example, China Shipbuilding is a typical cyclical stock, his manufacturing cycle changes with the changes in the industry market, and now it is an obvious upward cycle, and orders will be ranked many years later, unlike 2017 to 2019, basically there is no list, so it causes relatively large losses. Let's talk about the product cycle, all commodities have their cycles, for example, the lowest to highest copper prices, sometimes a difference of five times to ten times, it is conceivable that such a product is a earth-shaking change in the profitability of a company, from a big loss to a big profit, and then from a big profit to a big loss, repeated cycles, forming a certain cycle. Such as oil, steel, coal, non-ferrous metals, real estate, etc., these types of ** are collectively referred to as cyclical stocks.
Second, the basic logic of being optimistic about cyclical stocks is that the big bull market from 2014 to 2015 basically did not have a chance to perform. His last bull market was calculated to be in 2007, when the famous PetroChina 48 listing incident trapped national stockholders. It has been 17 years since then, and from the past history, the longest cycle is 20 years.
Let's take a look at the direction of stock selection for cyclical stocks, which has been explained in my previous article on the mainstream sectors of the bull market, and so far, the view remains the same. Today I mainly want to talk about the non-ferrous sector, since it is to prepare for the bull market, it is necessary to try to choose those scarce resources, especially those related to new energy, chip manufacturing related industries, the need for these metal products, such as lithium, cobalt, copper and so on. China Molybdenum and Western Mining are both good investment varieties. Of course, there are many particularly rare *** due to a long period of time in the future, but also optimistic about the concept of RMB appreciation, the future US dollar interest rate cut, depreciation is a high probability event. The investment in ** and ** should be increased to a more important level. Shandong**, Yintai**, and Industrial Yinxi can also be tracked from now on.
Finally, I will tell you about the trading strategy of cyclical stocks, the current cyclical stocks are not strong, we must not think that they are as stable as Mount Tai like those ** stocks, once they start to go bullish, I can responsibly tell you that the fluctuations of cyclical stocks are not smaller than technology stocks at all, and even more violent than technology stocks, whether it is ** and **, the main operating methods are very fierce, and when washing the market, it often happens that today's limit, tomorrow's limit, and the day after tomorrow's limit, such a violent trend, Everyone should be mentally prepared, I have seen the most fierce cyclical stocks, three consecutive down limits, and then five consecutive up limits, such a trend, breathtaking. Why do you want to tell you this? It is not to be taken lightly as a cyclical stock, and a single ** can not be too heavy, unlike the power stocks I talked about earlier, no matter how heavy you are, it doesn't matter, it is difficult to have a big fall.
What do you do, you must have a clear understanding of this type of **, so as to do the best coping strategy, don't be in a hurry and overwhelmed. Many people have just come to the market and are inexperienced, so let's give you a reminder here.