The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) suddenly announced that it had successfully transported a group of soldiers to the Stranded reef in the early morning of March 5. At the same time, the Chinese Coast Guard also announced that it had taken control measures in accordance with the law against Philippine vessels that intruded into the waters near Ren'ai Jiao in the Spratly Islands.
According to the Philippine side, a total of four ships were dispatched during the "forcible break" operation, including two small civilian supply vessels, the "Yunaza May 1" and "Yunaza May 4," which are responsible for transporting soldiers, and two coast guard ships, the CABRA and Singaporean.
The Philippine military released aerial footage of the resupply operation at around 8 a.m. this morning**, which clearly showed that the "Yunaza May 1" and "Yunaza May 4" were surrounded by a number of Chinese coast guard vessels and large fishing boats. In the fierce confrontation, the Philippine ships flexibly used their horsepower to try to break out of the encirclement, while the Chinese coast guard ship 5204 used high-speed reversing and other methods to intercept them.
However, the results eventually released by the Philippine military show that the "forcible break" operation appears to have been a success. In a March 4 report, it was shown that China had deployed 28 vessels, including coast guard vessels and fishing vessels, around Second Thomas Shoal. So how exactly did the Philippines succeed in the face of such a large blockade force? What's more, why didn't the Chinese coast guard use water cannons to drive away the Philippine ship this time?
In a previous break-in, the Chinese coast guard had collided with a Philippine vessel and used water cannons to drive it away, ultimately resulting in the failure of the Philippine resupply operation. Why is the situation different this time? The author thinks there are several possibilities.
First of all, the Philippines may have deliberately chosen March 5 as a time node, because it is also the day of China's two sessions, and the Philippines may want to take the opportunity to take it by surprise. As for why the Chinese coast guard has not seen the use of water cannons, it may be due to restraint and caution.
Second, the Philippine military recently acquired the latest "Dark Vessel" ship signal concealment system from the Canadian military. The system is said to be able to send false location information to deceive opposing ships. Therefore, it is likely that the Philippines used this system in this resupply operation, with unexpected results. It is also a reminder that we must be vigilant about this and make tactical adjustments accordingly.
In general, even if the Philippines' resupply operation to "force into" Ren'ai Shoal is successful, it will not be able to change the status quo of the reef. Unless the illegally stranded Philippine ship is directly towed away or sunk, it will be difficult for us to change our passive defensive posture in the short term. In the face of this situation, we must clearly understand that Ren'ai Jiao belongs to China, and this fact cannot be changed.
The situation in the South China Sea is changing, and this move by the Philippines is undoubtedly a challenge, but in the face of strength, the struggle may only be temporary. We need to remain vigilant and act cautiously, and it is our responsibility and mission to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea.