Kunpeng Project
M2 is close to 300 trillion, inflation will hit in the future? There are four major behaviors to avoid in 2024
M2 refers to the amount of money circulating in the market, which is the money supply in the broad sense.
Recently, a series of figures released by CCTV have attracted the attention of many people, including a statistic showing that as of the end of January, China's broad money balance has reached 300 trillion yuan, more than double next year's GDP.
With so much money, why is the current inflation level in my country relatively stable, and it has not risen significantly?
As for this excessive investment, some industry insiders first proposed that inflation may come, and proposed: "These "four things" are best completed before 2022, let's take a look. ”
Over-issuance of banknotes. Future inflation.
From 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, M2 has increased by 43 trillion, why is such a huge investment not showing a strong recovery? What about the money?
1.Large-scale inflow of over-issued funds into infrastructure construction and municipal construction;
China has a vast territory, and a series of infrastructure projects must be carried out every year, such as airports, high-speed railways, subways, highways, etc., which are characterized by leading the way, investing a lot and returning slowly. Billions at the least, hundreds of billions at the most, and most of them are idle.
In addition, every city must carry out a large-scale demolition and transformation. In fact, large-scale housing construction is also inseparable from loans.
It is clear that the money from the overissuance was used in the aforementioned areas. Moreover, the money in those places is not something that can be felt in a short period of time.
2.Idleness between financial departments.
An important factor is that the profitability of the capital market such as real estate and real estate has been very poor in recent years, which has increased panic and made the issuance of too much money unwilling to enter.
In addition, due to external and internal reasons, some traditional industries in our country are facing more severe challenges, and the income of ordinary people has become more difficult, which makes people's consumption demand continue to decline, which also makes many companies lose confidence in the investment of enterprises, so that they can no longer blindly expand.
3.Spending by the general population has decreased.
There is no doubt that the scale of nearly 300 trillion m2 will cause some excess money to flow into the market for bulk products, so that the consumption cost of residents will rise. For example, some fruits, edible oils, etc., which are closely related to people's daily life, due to the increase in funds circulating in the market, some products will follow.
However, contrary to the development trend of the past, in the past few years, the income of ordinary people has not increased much, but on the contrary, there has been a lot of decline and layoffs.
Under the premise of no income, consumers often find that the ** of the product has risen when buying goods, which reduces the demand for the product, thus creating an "unreal" oversupply, in this case, even if there is excess money inflow, it is difficult to increase significantly.
However, it should be pointed out that with the development of the economy, the improvement of the business environment, and the improvement of profitability, there may also be more funds flowing into the commodity market, and when the time comes, **will start again**.
In addition, in recent years, the world's oil, food and other raw materials have been at a high level, and it is difficult to see whether there will be new imported inflation.
Four moves. For a rainy day.
1.Can't overspend.
In the past two years, people from all walks of life have clearly felt the increased uncertainty of employment and income. As a result, many people are actively saving in case of unforeseen situations such as job loss and illness in the future.
And, in this situation, when ***, if people's economic situation changes, people will become more indebted because they lack enough cash to be in case of emergency.
Therefore, after the ** gradually stabilizes, it is the best choice. With a lower **, buy more things, in order to play the greatest value.
2.Don't fool around there.
Over the past few years, a lot of people have been over-chasing high-yielding assets to outperform inflation. But in recent years, not only **, but also some relatively low**, bonds, etc., in such an environment, if you want to buy high-risk goods, not only may not be able to make money, but will lose more money.
Especially in recent years, the operational efficiency of many listed companies has become lower and lower, and the flow of funds has become less and less.
Because the value of funds is supported by the long-term interests of the company, if the company cannot make a profit, it is a kind of speculation.
3.Don't buy too much debt.
In fact, in recent times, the cost of buying a house has been the cheapest of all, as it has now been reduced to twenty percent, and for the average family, it is even lower to 375%。
In addition, the country has also launched a lot of preferential policies, including housing subsidies, deed tax incentives, etc., which not only means that the threshold for buying a house is lowered, but more importantly, the pressure to repay the loan every month after buying a house will be much less.
However, even if the house is so cheap, our advice is to try to avoid buying a house with high leverage, whether it is a person in need or a person with a certain need for self-occupation, when buying a house, you must do what you can when buying a house, and the loan amount repaid each month cannot be more than 1 3 of the family income.
If the loan ratio is above 40%, the pressure to repay the debt will increase dramatically if there is still a sustained wage decline or job loss for some time to come.
So, if you want to buy a house in 2024, you must be self-aware and don't be ambitious.
4.Don't leave your job and leave your job.
First, although China's economic growth rate is very fast, but the profitability of real enterprises and individuals has not reached the expected level, therefore, in the process of job hunting, the pressure of job hunting is increasing, if you choose to work, or choose to leave, then you will have to face a big problem, that is: the competition for re-work is very fierce.
According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, during this year, nearly 4 million small and medium-sized enterprises went bankrupt, 13 million individual businesses were cancelled, and the number of unemployed exceeded 70 million.
In addition to the large number of people who have to find work, most companies have had to reduce their demand for labor in order to make ends meet.
Therefore, in the past two years, I have advised young people that if there is no important matter, it is best not to leave easily, and not to leave easily, and take this opportunity to improve their human resources, only in this way can you get the opportunity of self-worth in the shortest possible time in the future.
In addition, in view of the serious shortage of current market capacity, the competition in the industry is too fierce, and the domestic consumer demand is not high, so when choosing to start a business, it is still necessary to be cautious.
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