I don't know when it began, and it became "politically correct" to see the decline of NIO.
As for the root cause behind it, excluding some people with ulterior motives who want to take this opportunity to win traffic, the blame can only be blamed on the incompetence of this new force in making cars.
It stands to reason that 2023 should be the key node for the protagonist of today's article to achieve transformation and completely enter the positive cycle.
But in the end, due to all kinds of internal and external troubles, he fell into the quagmire again. Especially with the sudden arrival of the internal letter about layoffs, Li Bin, who was at the helm, was undoubtedly pushed to the forefront again.
As soon as this year, at the latest next year, NIO will be finished”
Open the major social platforms, similar doubts can be said to come one after another, coupled with the crazy involution of other competing teammates on the same track, the situation of this new force in car manufacturing is more and more worrying in strong contrast.
Fortunately, the road to the end of the sky is quite similar to the resurrection standing on the edge of the cliff in 2019, and since the end of last month, NIO has undoubtedly directed and acted in a play that has hit the bottom**.
For example, a week after that, it was officially announced that the battery swap mode was opened, and orders were received from Changan and Geely, two independent giants, and a number of customers are advancing.
For another example, after overcoming many difficulties, after going around and around, he finally obtained the qualification of independent car manufacturing, and spent more than 3 billion yuan to win the two manufacturing bases of the previous JAC foundry.
But for NIO, far water can't quench the thirst of the near, the above two news are more like long-term positives, and if you want to break the current prejudices, you still need to show more positive signals in the short term.
It is precisely based on this background that this new force car manufacturer finally handed over its third-quarter financial report at the end of 2023, and the performance is quite gratifying from only a few key data.
First, 55,432 new vehicles were delivered, up 754%, an increase of 135 month-on-month7%。With the support of considerable sales volume, the total revenue in the third quarter came to 1906.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 466%, an increase of 117 month-on-month4%。
The gross profit margin of the bicycle also ended three consecutive quarters, returning to double digits to 110%。The company's overall gross margin also increased to 8% from 1% in the second quarter.
Of course, compared with the remaining two in "Wei Xiaoli", Weilai's net loss is still the highest, reaching an exaggerated 455.7 billion yuan, but compared with 60.0 in the second quarter5.6 billion yuan has been narrowed by a large margin.
More importantly, as of the end of the third quarter, the cash and cash equivalents reserves on the books increased by 13.7 billion yuan compared with the end of the second quarter, temporarily staying at 45.2 billion yuan.
In addition, R&D expenditures reached 30400 million yuan, breaking through the 3 billion yuan mark for four consecutive quarters.
As for the ongoing fourth quarter, NIO's expectations are not high.
Specifically, new car deliveries were about 470,000-490,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 173%-22.3%, down 116%-15.2%。
Total revenue for the quarter was approximately 1607.9 billion yuan - 1670.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 01%-4.0%, down 1241%-15.67%。
At this point, I will summarize this financial report: "Although this new force is far from breaking even in the real sense, it still proves the ability of self-hematopoiesis and timely stop loss in disguise." ”
As long as you don't play with fire too much, the probability of "finishing" can be said to be getting smaller and smaller.
At the first meeting after the release of the third quarter financial report, Li Bin answered many questions from the outside world.
First of all, it is worth sharing the opening of the battery swap mode and the acquisition of the JAC factory.
Recently, some partners have cooperated with us, they have built battery swap stations, handed over to us to operate, we have dozens of battery swap stations have adopted this method, and in the future it will also be a way for us to continue to cooperate with foreign countries, that is, the assets of our battery swap stations, such a model held by a third party. ”
According to Li Bin's statement, NIO Power's charging business has been evenly balanced, after all, more than 80% of the electricity is consumed by users other than NIO, and in fact, battery swap stations in some areas have achieved profitability. Investors are very interested in NIO Power's independent financing, and this possibility cannot be ruled out in the future.
At the same time, the OEM agreement between NIO and JAC is still in effect, and the progress of the models in production is as usual, and if the follow-up is completely self-manufactured, the overall cost will be reduced by about 10%.
Taking advantage of the trend, Li Bin also elaborated on several of the highest priority things for NIO at present.
First, we will continue to invest in core technologies and maintain our leading positionSecond, increase sales capacity and sink channels;Third, to ensure that 9 core products of 3 brands are launched as scheduled.
For the high-end pure electric market in 2024, this helmsman seems to be full of confidence.
Some of the peers who have previously done extended-range models have also launched pure electric products, which will accelerate the transformation of traditional gasoline vehicles to pure electric vehicles, because other power forms are transitional, and we are very happy to see this change. ”
For the first battle of China's auto market, the helmsman chose not to follow.
Our brand strategy is to maintain the highest stability and continue to improve the gross profit margin. On this basis, through the improvement of sales ability and efficiency, the sales volume will be increased. We will remain patient and not reduce gross margin in the long run, and it is not healthy to reduce prices in exchange for sales. ”
According to Li Bin's **, NIO's gross profit margin target in the fourth quarter will be around 15%, and it will be guaranteed to remain at 15%-18% next year, and more than 20% in the long run.
At the first meeting after the release of the third quarter financial report, the hottest content is undoubtedly the spoiler of the new product launch of this new force.
First of all, it has been officially announced that NIO Day will be held in Xi'an on December 23, and it is confirmed that a new flagship model will be presented. As for the answer, it points straight to ET9.
Secondly, the NIO brand will not have a new model with major changes in 2024, only a facelift of the NT2, which will maintain a stable quality and ** chain.
In addition, the first product of the sub-brand "Alps" has recently completed the trial production of a prototype vehicle for development and verification.
In Li Bin's eyes, "This is the best VB car in the history of NIO, so we are very confident in its competitiveness, and of course we have enough time to continue to optimize and improve it." ”
In addition, after further investigation, it was learned that the sub-brand "Alps" and the NIO brand will not share offline stores, but will share part of the service system and battery swap network.
At this point, I would like to talk about some of my views in the following article.
First, although according to Li Bin's plan, NIO will strive to ensure gross profit margin and will not choose to follow up the first battle, but analyzing the current situation of the 8 models on sale on the NT2 platform, in addition to the ES6 and EC6 are relatively safe, the ET5 and ET5 travel that should be used as sales support have not been well activated.
ET7, ES7, EC7, almost none of them have much presence. Due to the high positioning, ES8 is also difficult to make much contribution to the sales side.
Admit it or not, the bloody facts are there.
Therefore, it is still hoped that NIO can show enough sincere determination and pricing when launching the so-called NT2 facelift, rather than letting them be tepid now.
Second, the sub-brand "Alps" cannot afford to be lost, and it is also a crucial battle related to the life and death of the protagonist of today's article.
Of course, when entering the mass market, the pressure of terminal competition will inevitably increase exponentially, and the gameplay and rules will also change accordingly.
What is certain is that the time has come to test whether the founders can turn the tide. So I implore you to give up some fantasies and become pragmatic and pragmatic.
After all, building a car requires a scale effect, and the volume depends on it.
Third, there is always a feeling that Li Bin's role in the entire company is really too "good man", so there will be all kinds of constraints in Weilai.
Sometimes, the person at the helm needs to be "ruthless" to his subordinates. After all, experience has taught us that the strongest fortresses are often broken down from within.
Man-made disasters are more terrible than natural disasters.
Fourth, even from the first meeting after the release of the third quarter financial report, you can feel that Li Bin is as comfortable as possible, but as a sober and self-aware bystander, I understand that the Chinese auto market in 2024 is a ruthless "meat grinder", and the war is far more fierce than imagined.
It is precisely based on this background that I sincerely hope that NIO will not make the "best disease" of the ever-changing situation again.
This time, there was little chance of making mistakes and then adjusting ......