At the end of the year, a new round of ** war has begun, but judging from the sales volume in November, it is indeed difficult for BYD's ambitious sprint to sell 3 million units a year, but Li Auto has reached the sales target of 300,000 units in 2023 ahead of schedule, which is also a milestone achievement.
Text丨Intelligent driving network YCC, summer rain.
Edit|Langlang Mountain and Mingzhi Mountain.
In November, because of the Guangzhou Auto Show, the new energy vehicle market can be said to be more lively, from the perspective of the brand that has released the sales volume in November, the new energy vehicle market is still continuing the heat of the golden nine and silver ten. The Federation of Passenger Cars estimates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the latest November will be about 394%, which can be said to be an overall growth.
After yesterday's Jiyue 01 whole system dropped by 30,000, Jikrypton followed up with a price reduction, and Jikrypton 001 broke out with an offline discount of 20,000, **The battle was fought from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, and every brand was living with their fingers on their fingers, and there was no relief throughout the year.
However, although China's new energy sales market is very hot, in China's first secondary market is a different picture, China's new energy double leader BYD and CATL continue to decline.
Since BYD, the leader of new energy vehicles, announced its report for the third quarter of 2023 on October 31, as of December 1, BYD (002594SZ) share price has dropped from a maximum of 243$99** to a minimum of $19281 yuan. and 357Compared with the largest in history of 61 yuan, BYD's maximum drawdown exceeded 40%, and its market value evaporated by more than 450 billion yuan.
CATL, the "leading stock" of new energy power batteries, also appeared three consecutive weekly K negative lines, and the lowest stock price touched 16443 yuan, a new low of more than two and a half years since April 2021. and 382 intraday on December 3, 202168 yuan is the most advanced ratio in history, the largest drawdown of CATL is more than 50%, and the market value has evaporated by more than 950 billion yuan.
So does the performance of market sales support the judgment of the smartest money in the market?
Here, thanks to our Zero Sauce, we have produced the most complete and accurate November new energy vehicle sales ranking in the industry.
Among the 24 brand models that have announced sales, only two brands of the leading companies have experienced negative month-on-month growth, namely BYD and NIO, which fell slightly by 021%, a slight drop of 072%。NIO's annual monthly sales target of exceeding 20,000 is basically unachievable.
Another question is whether BYD can achieve its historic goal of annual sales of 3 million
With BYD's Dynasty series, Ocean series, Yangwang and Equation Leopard, plus Denza, the total sales volume from January to November was 26527.28 million units, 34 million units from 3 million72.72 million units, BYD's total passenger car sales in the past 11 months were 3013.78 million units, it seems that BYD is likely to achieve a month-on-month increase of more than 10% to achieve this goal, and now it seems that there is still a lot of difficulty.
In addition, the top three month-on-month increases are Buick Weilan, Zhiji Auto and Wenjie.
Buick Micro Blue increased by 182 month-on-month41%, this rollercoaster-like change, indicating that Buick Micro Blue is following the market policy, in this list, Buick and SAIC Volkswagen IDFamily is the only two joint venture brands on the list, and this is also the most serious joint venture brand in the Chinese market.
Especially the SAIC Volkswagen IDThe cumulative sales of the series have exceeded 90,000 units, and it is also true that SAIC Volkswagen claims to be the top seller of the joint venture.
Zhiji Auto saw a month-on-month increase of 1166%, the sales volume stood on more than 8,000 units, and finally gave SAIC a place in the layout of the new energy field, but Feifan did not announce sales at the beginning of the month, so it is conceivable that the data is not ideal.
Of course, the most prominent ones in this list are actually Geely and Wenjie.
Geely's geometry, Geely Galaxy, Zeekr Automobile, Lynk & Co, and Ruilan have a total sales volume of 650.34 million units, an increase of about 88% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month.
From January to November, the cumulative sales of new energy exceeded 420,000 units, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%. Among them, ZEEKR, which occupies a place in the high-end market, delivered 13,104 vehicles in November, a year-on-year increase of more than 19%, setting a new record high for monthly delivery and maintaining positive year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months.
Rather than counting by a single brand, the sales ranking in November should be BYD, Tesla, Wuling, Geely, Aion and Ideal.
Why did we suddenly make such a ranking again?
It is visible to the naked eye that Geely's layout in the field of new energy is entering the stage of ripening and falling, and its growth momentum is very rapid.
With the hybridization of Lynk & Co, Geely's sales ranking in China's new energy vehicle market will rise steadily in 2024, and it is expected to challenge BYD and Tesla.
However, now the bigger variable in the new energy market is Huawei, after returning to the first camp in October, the sales volume in November still continued to grow at a high rate, with a year-on-year increase of 4824%，1.88.27 million vehicles, at the press conference of the Zhijie S7, Yu Chengdong saidOrders for the M7 exceeded 100,000 unitsAt present, in the terminal market, the monthly sales of the world will continue to be the first, more than 20,000 monthly sales, the Xiaopeng behind the press, in the short term and the ideal has a tendency to compete, at the end of the year, with the wisdom of the S7, the question of the M9 on the market,Huawei's models are expected to officially enter the second camp of new energy vehicles composed of Aion, Geely, and Ideal.
In addition to the above-mentioned brands, most of the brands on the list have maintained a slight increase in sales, and if we focus on new brands, the biggest highlight is of course that Ideal has completed the annual target of 300,000 units set at the beginning of the year one month ahead of schedule.
Xpeng Motors has been stable above the monthly sales of 20,000 for two consecutive months, and the momentum is stable.
Compared with the same period last year, the rankings of Leap and Nezha have been rotated, and the momentum of Leap is better than that of Nezha, and Nezha's decline compared with the same period last year is huge, but it is growing slightly in the same period.
It is a pity here that Changan Qiyuan did not announce the sales volume.
According to the official data of Changan Automobile, the sales volume of its own brand new energy from January to November was 4146.79 million units, no separate release of Kaizen sales. Combined with its previously released data, Zhijia.com removed the previously announced sales of 364081 independent brand new energy from January to October, and its own brand new energy sales in November should be 50,598 vehicles, minus the data of Deep Blue and AVATAR, and then combined with the previous data analysis, Qiyuan's sales are expected to be around 10,000 units.
The other two noteworthy are VOYAH and Skyworth, VOYAH's performance is becoming more and more positive, with monthly sales approaching 10,000, and Skyworth is growing steadily, although the base is low, but the performance is very positive. Of course, of its 3,936 units sold in November, 1,921 units were exported overseas, accounting for nearly 50%.
Judging from the current sales ranking, will it be possible to achieve the estimated annual sales of 9 million units by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers in 2023?From the current point of view, the probability of breaking 8 million units is extremely high, but it is difficult to break 9 million units.
But even 8 million units will be a historical high.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is still far ahead of all markets in the world.
In the recent capital market, does the share price of BYD and CATL** indicate that the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market will slow down in 2023?What about how overcapacity affects the health of the industry?
There are indeed some signs.
For example, BYD sold 301,095 passenger cars in October 2023, a year-on-year increase of 384%, but after excluding Denza, the sales volume of BYD-related brands increased by 5% month-on-month in October79%, and in November, there was a slight decrease of 021%, BYD's high growth in 2024 in 2023 is almost unpromising, and BYD's recent successive price reduction measures have further strengthened this expectation, although there is a goal of sprinting annual sales of 3 million behind it.
In addition, the information from the material side is more convincing, and it is a fact that the raw materials of power batteries and the overcapacity of power batteries are already true.
According to the ** market contract, on November 27, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2401 fell below 120,000 tons, hitting the 7% down limit and other 3 contracts. And there are already institutions **lithium carbonate ** next year is expected to fall below 70,000 tons. Compared with 600,000 tons in the same period last year, lithium carbonate, a raw material for power batteries, can only be described as a "collapse".
Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, previously predicted that "China's battery production capacity may reach 3,000GWh in 2025, while shipments are only 1,200GWh, and the overcapacity is obvious", has also revealed hidden concerns in the near future. According to the content of the notice, affected by objective factors such as the market and the upstream and downstream industrial chains, Tianjin Jiewei began to suspend work and production from December 1, 2023.
In the global market, it also proves that the high growth of new energy is not optimistic.
On November 28, local time in the United States, American auto dealers jointly issued an open letter to Biden, asking for a moratorium on the development of electric vehicles. "The current demand for electric vehicles has not kept pace with the rate at which they are pouring into dealerships, leaving electric vehicles piling up at dealerships," the letter said. ”
Previously, it was reported that due to the sluggish demand for electric vehicles in Europe and the United States, coupled with the poor performance of the third quarter, automakers such as GM and Ford have slowed down the pace of transformation, decided or considered extending the production and sales time of fuel vehicles, and postponed related investments in the field of electrification.
Of course, there are also optimistic expectations, that is, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 50% by 2025.
What do you think about the future?
On the whole, the intelligent driving network is still highly optimistic.
Some brands may be adjusted, but the growth of new energy is still a high probability event.
At the end, we show the sales posters of each brand, which have more details and information:
Alright, that's it.