Today's steel market is generally weak, rebar, hot coil and strip steel, profiles, plates and other varieties still have a slight decline, but the amplitude is not large, 10-20 yuan mostly. In addition, after the rapid decline of the disk in the afternoon, the pressure on spot sales increased. From the perspective of transactions, the off-season is getting weaker and weaker, and the transactions of low-price resources are acceptable, and the transactions are basically dominated by rigid demand.
Today's market once again pulled down the average spot price with a rapid ** disk, which changed the bullish expectations of many people in the market in the past two days. Judging from the overnight disk and copper and other metals sharply, the reason for the rapid rebound in the morning of this day is the further easing of real estate policies and several relatively bright places in today's economic data, such as new real estate starts, industrial added value and manufacturing investment, which are relatively good.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2023, China's crude steel output was 76.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 04%；The output of pig iron was 64.84 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 48%；The output of steel was 110.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 42%。From January to November, China's crude steel output was 952.14 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%；The output of pig iron was 810.31 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%；The output of steel was 125282 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 57%。National Bureau of Statistics: In November, China produced 4100 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 46%, the growth rate was 08 percentage points, with an average daily output of 137990,000 tons. Imported coal was 43.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 347%, the growth rate is 114 percentage points. From January to November, 42 raw coal was produced400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29%。Imported coal 4300 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 628%。
Judging from the coal production data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the output of raw coal continues to increase, and to a certain extent, it plays a certain negative role in the production of raw coal. However, judging from the trend of the market in the past two days, coal is still running strongly, especially the fourth round of coke increases, which means that the strong operation of the demand side has formed a strong support for the first place. From the perspective of steel mill demand, although the output of molten iron has increased slightly, the increase is not very large, but from the perspective of demand from other ports, with the cooling of many parts of the country, the market demand for coal will only continue to increase, and power plants will continue to replenish the reservoir to ensure power **. Therefore, from the perspective of the supply and demand structure of coal, coal has always been in a relatively strong stage, and the current strong trend has not changed.
Looking at the changes in downstream electricity consumption data, according to the statistics of the National Energy Administration, in November 2023, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 763 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 116%。In terms of industries, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 9.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 122%；The electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 527.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 98%；The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 132.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 209%；The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 93.6 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 100%。Judging from the changes in electricity consumption in the secondary industry, although the growth rate is not as bright as that of other industries, it still continues to increase as a whole. Although the fourth quarter is coming to an end, the demand for electricity will continue to increase.
From the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, there is another point that is very interesting. From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 104045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94%；From January to November, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 831345 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 72%。The area of new housing construction was 874.56 million square meters, a decrease of 212%。The area of housing completions was 652.37 million square meters, an increase of 179%。Although the area of new construction continued to decline month-on-month, it increased by 4 at the same time67%, so to speak, is very impressive. However, if we look at the analysis of the basic situation of the market, it is mainly due to the relatively low base last year, and the continuous efforts of urban investment this year have indeed increased the enthusiasm for land acquisition to a certain extent.
From the reference of the above data, it is not difficult to find that the cost side is still in strong support, while our spot side is currently operating under pressure. With the increase of snowfall in the north and the beginning of the cooling process in many places in the south, the market demand will further shrink in the later stage, and the increase in the first end will be expected. However, at present, the market has not traded in advance, and as the disk rises and falls, the spot market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the market is speculating on various low possibilities. In fact, judging from the intraday trend, we reminded everyone at the beginning that the market hyped economic expectations, once the situation is less than expected, then the capital may take the lead in turning around, so the direct impact is our disk. During this period, there was no obvious adjustment in the spot market, the terminal was still purchased on demand, and the market did not have a retaliatory increase in transactions or a cliff-like decline with the fluctuation of the market. Therefore, the market now intends to lead the signs of volatility to fundamentals, and it can only be said that the impact should be around 50%.
Judging from the main factors of the recent fluctuations, it is also necessary to remind everyone that the early stage of the ** rise is too fast, and more merchants in the market have not yet entered the market. Judging from the feedback given by the market in the past two days, there is indeed a ** demand, but judging from the strength of the current decline in the disk, I still insist that the previous point of view remains unchanged, and the thread still has to challenge the support near 3860.
In addition, at the end of the year, we also need to pay attention to the financial situation, which is not to emphasize the entry of disk funds, but to emphasize the driving situation of policy expectations. Statistics from the People's Bank of China show that at the end of November 2023, the balance of broad money (m2) was 2912 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and the growth rate was 03 and 24 percentage points. Narrow money (m1) balance 6759 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, the growth rate was 0.0 lower than the end of last month and the same period last year, respectively6 and 33 percentage points. Renminbi loans increased by 109 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 136.8 billion yuan;The increase in the scale of social financing in November was 245 trillion yuan, 455.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
More money is our first reaction, especially in November, although the amount of new RMB loans increased slightly year-on-year, but increased by more than 40% month-on-monthThe increase in the scale of social financing increased significantly year-on-year, and increased by more than 30% month-on-month. From the perspective of loans, the short-term loans of enterprises increased in November, and the medium and long-term loans also continued to increase, indicating that enterprises pay more attention to the balance between short-term and medium- and long-term development of enterprises under the support of enhanced policy expectationsResidents' loans also showed a trend of simultaneous increase in the short term and medium and long term, but the increase in medium and long-term loans was more obvious, reflecting the gradual improvement of residents' confidence and expectations.
In addition, from the perspective of social financing, the increase in the scale of social financing in November was 245 trillion yuan, 455.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 111 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.7 billion yuan, the net financing of bonds increased by more than 70% year-on-year, and the net financing of corporate bonds also doubled year-on-year, indicating that at this stage, the net financing of bonds is still the "main force", but the driving effect of investment is being transmitted to the enterprise side, or as we said earlier, the policy landing requires a certain periodicity. At present, the lack of effective domestic demand and the average profitability of enterprises have led to a slowdown in domestic manufacturing production activities, especially in the recent past, commodities continue to fluctuate, and the cost side continues to be strong, which is also increasing the operational difficulty of enterprises. The normality of this round requires close attention to the purchase or speculative entry of the low market.
Outlook
From the current point of view, although the disk has been repeated around 3900, the trend has not yet been completely completed, and it is expected to maintain a downward trend next week, but it should be noted here that it is necessary to pay attention to whether the disk has a certain scale after the overfall. Although from the perspective of the time cycle, next week is slightly earlier, if the market gives the entry point in advance, the possibility of early entry is not ruled out.
From the disc point of view, the black series of finished materials ** in the afternoon sharply**, thread, hot coil fell by more than 30 points, iron ore, coke and coking coal trend opposite, coking coal is still strong. In the afternoon, the market increased its position downward, and the risk still exists in the short cycle, so it is recommended to be cautious and not blindly. In terms of points, continue to pay attention to the lower foothold mentioned yesterday, pay attention to the situation below 3900, and the possibility of returning to around 3860. (Lange Steel, Wang Siya).