Recent real estate data shows new homes andSecond-hand housingSales are declining, a phenomenon that has attracted a lot of attention. Especially in first-tier citiesSecond-hand housingThe number of pending sales has risen rapidly, with the Shanghai market for sale** increasing by 82% in just five months. This situation is mainly due to the past few yearsPandemicimpact and a change in the consumption concept of residents. On the one hand,PandemicAs a result, many people's incomes have declined or even become unemployedBuying a houseThe economic base has become fragile;On the other hand, nowadaysBuying a houseThey are more rational and will make decisions carefully according to their own situation, rather than blindly following the trendBuying a house。After all, everywhereRoom ratesWhen the level is generally too high, the total price of a 90-square-meter house is at least 1.5 million yuan, which is beyond the ability of most residents.
Expansion: In recent years, the long-term boom in the real estate market has led to:Room ratesThe skyrocketing of many people forBuying a houseDebt is not hesitated, which puts the real estate market at risk of a bubble. WhilePandemicThe outbreak of the epidemic and the change of residents' consumption concepts have made more and more people begin to be cautiousReal estate investment, which also led toBuying a houseThe downturn in the market.
FaceBuying a houseAs the market continues to be sluggish, a series of favorable policies have been introduced in various places, including the cancellation of purchase and loan restrictions and increasesCPF loan amountBanksLower interest rates, and so on. However, even if policy dividends are issued frequently,Buying a houseThe recovery of the market is still very slow. This shows that, to a certain extent, the deep-seated reasons for the current market downturn are not entirely at the policy level. As mentioned earlier, the deep-seated factor behind the market downturn lies in residentsBuying a housethe ability to decline, as well as its more rationalConsumption concept。In this context, the relaxation of policies is of course meaningful, but in order to truly reverse the downturn in the market, it is also necessary to adjust the residentsBuying a houseAbility and shape more rationalConsumption conceptIt starts.
Expansion: Policies over the past few years have focused on driving the heat in the housing market, but this short-term stimulus does not address the underlying problem. Conversely, over-the-top stimulus measures may push furtherHigh house prices, making it unbearable for the inhabitants, exacerbatedReal estate bubblesrisk. Therefore, more attention should be paid to long-term planning to promote the healthy development of the real estate market.
In the case that the local ** could not find a solution, the former mayor of ChongqingHuang QifanOne of the recommendations has attracted a lot of attention. He advocated the complete abolition of the purchase and loan restriction policies, and inPropertyDifferential taxation is implemented to allow the market to return to the supply and demand mechanism, rather than relying on administrative interventionRoom rates。As soon as this suggestion was put forward, it sparked a heated discussion on the Internet. Proponents see this as a "good solution" to remove speculative investment demand. However, there are also concerns that once the purchase and loan restrictions are lifted, a large number of investors will be attracted to return to the market and re-launchHigh house prices。In this regard, we believe that such concerns are unwarranted. The current real estate market is already very different from a few years ago. On the one hand,Pandemicmakes many investors'The chain of funds is broken, is no longer able to participateReal estate investmentThe game;On the other hand, even the common people have become cautious, so what reason do investors have to be enthusiastic again?Therefore, after the cancellation of the purchase and loan restrictions,Room ratesThe likelihood of a big rally is not high. On the contrary, without administrative intervention, it is easier for the market to returnSupply and demand, the developer will also determine according to the actual situationRoom rates, which is more conducive to the stability of the market.
Expansion: Interventions are often only short-term stimulus and difficult to solve the underlying problems of the real estate market. In contrast, the return to the supply and demand mechanism and the independent regulation of the market are more stable and more conducive to the long-term development of the market. Therefore, the abolition of the purchase and loan restriction policy is not the resultRoom ratesThe only reason for the surge is that the market will be affected by other factors, such as residentsBuying a housecapacity, population migration, etc.
ExceptHuang QifanIn addition to the proposal, ** recently announced that it will vigorously promote the construction of affordable housing in the next 5 years, and launch pilot projects in 35 major cities. This news was interpreted as a clear statement on the policy of housing not speculation and adapting measures to local conditions. The positioning of affordable housing is to provide low- and middle-income people with housing that is lower than the average market price, which helps to solve the basic housing needs of this group. For the commercial housing market, this is also a tranquilizer, because the mid-to-high-end demand has been isolated and transferred, and the market will tend to be more rational and stable.
To sum up, no matter whatHuang QifanThe proposal or the first affordable housing plan has released a clear signal - * will further promote the real estate market to return to its residential attributes, pay attentionSupply and demandregulation. In such an environment, all over the worldRoom ratesIt will no longer rely on policy stimulus to survive, but will be more receptive to the regulation of market supply and demand. This is undoubtedly good news for ordinary residents, as theyBuying a housecosts are likely to peak and fall in the near future.