Executive Director of CNPC Economic and Technical Research Institute
As a global product, oil and gas are facing new risks and challenges under the new situation of profound adjustment of global economic forces, rapid industrial transformation and scientific and technological revolution, accelerated green and low-carbon transformation, and restructuring of the industrial chain. One isThe escalation of global geopolitical conflicts has triggered a deep adjustment of the energy development pattern, and the two parallel markets of western developed countries and some developing countries have begun to emerge, and the smooth operation of the oil and gas market is facing challenges. The second isOil companies are struggling to balance traditional business with new energy investment, and the current oil and gas investment is good for operating performance, but not conducive to the green energy transition, and the strategy of European oil companies is swinging left and right. The third isMarket forces have entered a period of intensified competition, the supply share of OPEC countries and the Americas on the supply side will further increase, the demand side will continue to decline in the west and rise in the east, the proportion of the Asia-Pacific market will continue to increase, and the competition between supply and demand for market discourse will become increasingly fierce. Four areThe financial attributes of oil and the programmatic trading method have amplified the volatility of oil prices and increased the difficulty of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. Overall, the uncertainty of world oil and gas supply and demand has increased, and the linkage of commodity, political and financial attributes has become more complex.
Since the beginning of this year, the world economy has struggled to recover due to various factors, such as the long-tail effect of the epidemic, the banking turmoil in the United States and Europe, the continuation of the Ukraine crisis, the resurgence of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the escalation of the great power game, and the restructuring of the global industrial chain. China's economy is under pressure after the transition of epidemic prevention and control, and the recovery is tortuous, and the overall trend is to return to restorative growth after exceeding expectations, but the internal and external structural pressure on economic operation is still obvious, and the problem of "insufficient demand" under the "conversion of old and new kinetic energy" is more prominent, and macro policies are actively working to stabilize employment, stabilize expectations, and stabilize growth.
In 2023, the high level of international oil prices will fall, and the average price of Brent from January to November will be 18% year-on-year. Global oil demand has finally surpassed pre-pandemic levels. OPEC+ strengthened its strategy of reducing production and guaranteeing prices, and took the initiative to deepen and extend production cuts during the year. Non-OPEC+ oil producers such as the United States have increased production and seized market share. The international oil and gas flow direction has further shifted from "counterclockwise" to "clockwise", the Asia-Pacific region has been converted from Europe, European oil and gas have "left Russia and relied on the United States", and Russian oil and gas exports have "turned east to south". International gas prices*** Global natural gas consumption is recovering slowly, the overall supply and demand are loose, and uncertainties are increasing.
China's oil supply and demand recovered on both sides, and the apparent consumption of oil increased by 5% year-on-year1%；The service sector recovered faster than the manufacturing sector, and the consumption of refined oil products increased sharply by 9 year-on-year4%, close to 2019 levels, and ethylene equivalent consumption increased by 8%. The refining capacity and processing volume have reached the highest record in history, the market capacity has been enhanced, and the competition has continued to intensify. Electric vehicles have entered the stage of full market-driven drive, which has replaced more than 10% of gasoline consumption, and the demand for refined oil is expected to peak in 2025. Natural gas consumption has grown rapidly, foreign dependence has rebounded slightly, and the upstream and downstream linkage mechanism has been continuously improved.
In the context of the macro situation at home and abroad and the in-depth adjustment of the oil and gas market pattern, it is the right time to organize this forum, and we can work with you to improve the oil and gas market situation and trend. CNPC Economic and Technological Research Institute is willing to give full play to the power of think tanks and build an exchange platform, hoping that through today's high-level, high-quality and high-level academic exchanges and sharing feast, it will stimulate full discussion in the industry and actively speak out for maintaining the stability of the global oil and gas industry chainContribute wisdom and strength to promote the smooth and healthy operation of the oil and gas industry.
——Excerpt from the speech at the Oil and Gas Market Sub-forum of the 2023 International Energy Development Forum
December 8, 2023
Submission email: 1029926159@qqcom
Editor: Liang Guohua.
Proofreading: Zhang Rui.
Review: Chang Fei Lu Xiangqian.