Copper
* Trend: On the last trading day, the main Shanghai copper contract closed at 68,410 yuan, down 025%。
Macro level: The U.S. dollar index retreated sharply after the Fed interest rate meeting ended and the market began to trade interest rate cut expectations. At the end of the domestic economic work conference, the tone still fell on vigorously supporting the recovery of domestic demand.
Supply and demand level: Overseas mines have been disturbed, and domestic smelters have concentrated procurement, resulting in a decline in copper concentrate processing fees. Copper prices and scrap copper have increased, but the number of new maintenance of smelters is small, and the output will reach one million tons, and the total amount will be high. Inventories are rising, with a weak dollar, low inventories, and mine-side stories providing upside momentum.
Aluminum
* Trend: On the last trading day, the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 18,925 yuan, an increase of 032%。
Macro level: After the last Fed interest rate meeting of the year, the market began to trade interest rate cut expectations, and the dollar index fell sharply;At the end of the domestic economic work conference, the tone still fell on vigorously supporting the recovery of domestic demand.
Supply and demand: Bauxite supply and demand are tight, alumina costs are firm, and production release is limited. The output of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and imported aluminum was supplemented. Super first-tier cities have relaxed restrictions on house purchases, which is good for the demand for building profiles. The off-season effect at the end of the year is obvious, and the price of aluminum may affect the enthusiasm of procurement. Inventories fell by 770,000 tons.
Zinc
* Trend: On the last trading day, the main Shanghai zinc contract closed at 20,820 yuan, down 005%。
Macro level: The Fed's interest rate cut expectations are heating up, and the mine ** problem has begun to be transmitted to the ingot end.
Supply and demand level: the shortage of mines affects the production scheduling plan of smelting enterprises, and the output of refined zinc is less than expected, but the absolute value is still high, accompanied by the supplement of imported zinc. The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises has remained stable, and after the zinc price, the purchasing willingness of die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises has weakened. Last week, the domestic social inventory of refined zinc fell by 5,200 tons.
Lead
* Trend: On the last trading day, the main Shanghai lead contract closed at 15,620 yuan, down 0.26%。
Macro level: no important information.
Supply and demand level: the output of lead concentrate has declined, the supply exceeds demand, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is difficult for primary lead enterprises to make a profit in production, and individual smelting enterprises plan to control production or overhaul in advance. The heavy snow in the north has exacerbated the difficulty of waste procurement, and some recycled lead enterprises are in a state of reduction and production. At the end of the year, downstream enterprises mainly recouped funds and purchased cautiously. Last week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic lead fell by 1240,000 tons.
Nickel
*Trend: On the last trading day, Shanghai nickel stopped falling ** and closed at 129,410 yuan ton.
Macro level: The Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes, hawks began to turn dovish, the market's expectations for interest rate hikes next year rose, the dollar index sharply**, and the pressure on metals slowed down.
Supply and demand level: nickel ore-ferronickel-stainless steel logic chain shows that the downstream peak season is expected to be disappointed, the output of stainless steel mills is reduced, and the price reduction mentality of stainless steel mills is obvious. The cost of ferronickel is upside down, the profit loss of the iron plant increases, and the mine seeks concessions from the mine end, and the mine price is **. In terms of new energy demand, the incremental release of Indonesian MHP and the oversupply and demand of nickel sulfate.
Tin
*TrendLast trading day, Shanghai tin maintained a range**, down 0.4% to 206,600 yuan tons.
At the macro level: the mining ban continues, and the market rumors that it will take 5 months for local mining to resume production at the earliest.
Supply and demand: Under the ban on mining, the shortage of mines has been alleviated, and the processing fee has risen simultaneously. If Myanmar's mine ban lasts as expected, there is still a risk of shortages in the long run. The domestic ** is stable and increasing, Lunxi continues to be discounted, the import window is opened, part of the supply flows into the country, and the tin ingot ** is expected to grow. Last week picked up, the spot market trading improved, and downstream procurement was positive. In the long run, if the ban on tin ore is in line with expectations, there is still a risk of shortage of tin raw materials.
Basis table
Position Table