Today**, the Shanghai Composite Index is reported at 296621 points, down 009%；Shen Cheng index reported 951991 points, down 014%；GEM index reported 187721 points, down 025%。The turnover of the two cities was 820.2 billion yuan, basically the same as the previous trading day, and more than 3,100 *** Today, the net inflow of northbound funds was 293.8 billion yuan, net **37.3 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 251 billion yuan, net **122.6 billion yuan;SZSE net inflows42.8 billion yuan, net sale of 85.3 billion yuan.
On the disk, the three major indexes opened low and went high, and tried to turn red many times during the session, although the last three major indexes closed down, but there were some positive changes on the disk today:
The ChiNext Index and the Shenzhen Component Index have shown a stabilizing trend, and the Shanghai Composite Index has also closed two low dojis.
Today's weighted plates and theme plates have performed, weighted plates, the big financial sector has shown a stabilization today, the ** index has pulled out a small yang line, Kweichow Moutai today's lowest point has also basically made up for the big gap in the last gap, and the Ningde era has also stepped out of the volume in the past two days, which is conducive to supporting the index to stabilize. In addition, in terms of theme stocks, the artificial intelligence sector has performed well against the trend in the past two days, especially the application side has been fully adjusted, and whether the follow-up focus can continue to amplify the amount of energy, so as to reach a consensus on funds to become the main line at the end of the year.
Although the trading volume has not been effectively opened, it can be clearly seen that new funds below 3,000 points are gradually entering the market in the past two days, and the northbound inflow in the past two days is also relatively positive, and the bottom of the market is gradually forming.
The follow-up focus will be on whether the central bank will have new liquidity measures in the context of seasonal liquidity tightness at the end of the year, and the outlook for next year's economic development data at the two blockbuster meetings at the end of the year.
1. Whether the northbound capital can continue to flow in.
2. Whether the artificial intelligence sector can be opened.
3. Whether the central bank has measures to further release liquidity.
4. If there is a large volume of the index**, you need to pay attention to the risk.
On December 7, the main A-share index opened lower and fell in the afternoon. As of **, the three major stock indexes closed down across the board, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 009% to 296621 o'clock;The Shenzhen Component Index fell 014% at 951991 points;The GEM index fell 025% at 187721 o'clock;The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today reached 820.2 billion, basically the same as the previous trading day, with nearly 3,200 stocks falling more and rising less
Today, there was a net inflow of 293.8 billion yuan, net **37.3 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 251 billion yuan, net **122.6 billion yuan;SZSE net inflows42.8 billion yuan, net sale of 85.3 billion yuan.
The main capital outflow of Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1499.4 billion yuan. Among them, the net outflow of large single was 606.5 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 89 percent2.9 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 59.3 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 15.5 billion yuan for small orders8.8 billion yuan.
Today, the software development, culture and media, Internet services and education sectors strengthened, with spatial computing, intellectual property and AIGC concepts leading the gains.
The software development sector is strong, with the 30cm daily limit of CEFC Coopers, Liandi Information, Tianrun Technology and Zhongcheng Technology, the daily limit of Wangda Software, Tonghui Information, Road and Bridge Information, Airong Software and Lechuang Technology all rising by more than 11%.
The cultural media sector continued to strengthen, with Beijing Culture, Dragon Media, Gravity Media, Zhongguang Tianxue, Tianwei Video, Guomai Culture, Lisheng Sports, Shanghai Film, Publishing Media and Visual China, and Liujin Technology up 1389%, and new media shares rose nearly 13%.
In the Internet service sector, Xinyada's one-word daily limit has walked out of 6 consecutive boards, Danghong Technology and Ally Development have a daily limit, and Guangmai Technology has risen 1226%, the vast depth rose 1138%, Cape Cloud rose 1080%, Arcsoft Technology and Focus Technology both rose more than 8%.
The education sector went up, Onlly Education rose by the limit, and Rongxin Culture rose by 974%, Chuanzhi Education, Kaiyuan Education and Entrepreneurship Dark Horse rose highly.
In the concept sector, the concept of spatial computing went higher, Roman shares rose by the limit, and Hengxin Oriental rose by 871%, Jiadu Technology, Fantuo Digital Innovation and Daily Interactive all rose by more than 3%. Among the intellectual property concept stocks, Xinhuanet rose 671%, City Media and Palm Reading Technology both rose more than 4%.
In terms of wind power equipment, auto parts and power equipment sectors, the first drugs, innovative drugs and generator concepts fell first.
In the wind power equipment sector, Hengrun shares fell to the limit, and Haili Wind Power fell 937%, Daikin Heavy Industries, Sany Renewable Energy and Taisheng Wind Energy were among the top decliners.
The auto parts sector ** fell, Changchun Yidong, Shenglong shares, Hunan Tianyan, Yunnei Power and Weidi shares fell to the limit, and Beite Technology, Bohai Automobile and Shentong Technology all fell more than 8%.
In the power equipment sector, Yingjie Electric led the decline of 681%, Aike Saibo, Keshida, Shenghong shares and many others**have**.
*Among the concept stocks of pharmaceuticals and innovative drugs, Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, Gan & Lee Pharmaceutical, Borui Pharmaceutical and Kane Technology all fell by more than 6%, and Changshan Pharmaceutical Bio-Thera fell by more than 5%.Among the generator concept stocks, Ruichen Environmental Protection, Tongda Power, Zongshen Power, Weima Agricultural Machinery and other stocks **.
Overall:Huaxi ** pointed out that in this round, the small-cap style prevails. The latest data shows that the pattern of "weak recovery" of the economy has not changed, and the equity market continues to play a stock game pattern. The nature of marginal funds determines the short-term market style, and the weakening of institutional pricing power in this round makes the blue-chip style elastic insufficient. Since November, financing funds have become the main incremental funds of A-shares, helping the small-capitalization style to strengthen.
Galaxy** said that a new round of the Jugra cycle and inventory cycle is expected to open in 2024, but under the pressure of real estate transformation, the opening time of the cycle may be delayed, and the upward slope is limited. With the effect of the steady growth policy, the economy is likely to continue to improve, and the performance of enterprises will usher in marginal improvement, providing support for the upward trend of A-shares. At present, the valuation of A-shares is at a historically low level, and there is a lot of room for repair. At the same time, the introduction of medium and long-term funds has been increasing, the market sentiment has gradually picked up, and the incremental capital situation is expected to improve slowly. However, there are many uncertainties at home and abroad. It is judged that in 2024, A-shares will have a high probability of upward movement during the cycle replacement period, and with the shift of overseas monetary policy, the upward momentum in the second half of the year may be more obvious.
Guosheng** said that the current US 10-year Treasury yield hit a high of 5 on October 23After 02, the global capital market ushered in a continuously improving macro environment, and the RMB also entered the appreciation channel, but although the domestic economy has recovered, it is not as strong as market expectations, which has become the main contradiction in the current marketAt the same time, the technical situation has been slow to break through the important resistance level, causing the index to bottom down again. Therefore, looking forward to the market outlook, we can focus on consumption against the trend, short drama games and intelligent driving with broad prospects.
Guoyuan** said that looking forward to the market outlook, the core variables affecting A-shares have not changed qualitatively, but the short-term momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to pay attention to whether there is a short-term positive cash to boost market confidence. In the medium term, the direction of key variables is still good, and the market trend may rise around the trend line of slow variable repair.
Judging from the trend of the representative plates:
Software development, Internet sector
Dongxing ** believes that the computer industry as a whole will still be in a state of steady growth in 24 years, in the stage of risk appetite recovery, the growth rate of the industry is more difficult to obtain market attention, superimposed domestic computer companies to B end G end business, limited by the budget and bidding rhythm, the possibility of substantial improvement on the demand side is low, so the catalyst with the potential to enhance market expectations is mainly in the following two aspects, one is the introduction of normative and supportive policies on the policy side, we believe that it may be mainly concentrated in data elements, automatic driving, In terms of domestic computing power support, the second is the domestic breakthrough and overseas mapping of the technology side, and we believe that the current breakthrough may be mainly in the computing power side and the software and hardware application side of artificial intelligence.
Yongxing** research report pointed out that the National Data Bureau is working with relevant departments to study and implement the "data elements" action, and the industrial chain is expected to benefit. We will focus on the data element sector that benefits from the "Data Elements" initiative, the AI computing power server industry chain that benefits from the rapid growth of AI computing power, the AI application sector that benefits from the accelerated application of HUAWEI CLOUD's Pangu large model, and the AI multimodal sector that benefits from the launch of PIKA tools.
Minsheng ** believes that on the first anniversary of the release of ChatGPT, the world has been profoundly changed because of AI, and there are signs of AI change at home and abroad. It is recommended to focus on the investment opportunities brought about by the localization of basic computing power and all-in-one machines, the transformation of AI terminals and AI applications. After NVIDIA's new round of clear bans, chip localization is the top priority at present, and combined with the continuous high demand for data privacy and localized deployment of large models, it is recommended to pay attention to the localization of chip basic computing power and all-in-one machine related targetsAI terminal transformation from AI PC to AI PIN: The reconstruction of large models is expected to resonate from AI PC and gradually extend to various terminals such as automobiles, mobile phones, and robots, or usher in a comprehensive round of AI terminal hardware innovation.
Education
Yinhe** said that the marginal positive trend of the education industry is clear, the performance trend has been verified, and the diversified layout of the leading company is expected to open up growth space. AI training and education informatization as an important direction of AIGC, is conducive to optimizing the new education and training system, and the recent "Action Plan for the High-quality Development of Computing Infrastructure" also points out that it is necessary to further expand the application scope of computing power in education and other fields, and the future market space is broad.
CITIC** said that since the beginning of this year, some education subdivisions have shown a significant reversal trend, such as education and training, public examinations, etc., and at the same time, the education technology track has also shown great development prospects with the outbreak of AIGC technology, and all kinds of players are blooming. With the positive changes in the education industry, some of the top excellent companies are expected to show strong growth potential, and it is recommended to pay attention to: 1) the head education and training companies that are actively transforming and re-entering the growth of their performance;2) The demand is booming & the industry is expected to usher in the best vocational training company;3) Higher education companies with historically low valuations, high performance certainty, and are expected to gradually usher in valuation repair.
Debang** said that since the beginning of the year, the education sector is generally on the track of rapid recovery of fundamentals, superimposed on policy concerns and warming policy sentiment & AI+ sentiment blessing, and the sector has shown a trend of joint repair of performance and valuation sentiment.
Auto parts
CITIC** pointed out that the demand of the automotive industry is expected to grow steadily in 2024, and the structural opportunities are mainly concentrated in intelligent, overseas and market segments. The profitability elasticity brought by going overseas in 2023 has been verified by many leading enterprises, and the bank expects that the profit structure of vehicle and parts companies will continue to diversify and globalize in the medium and long term. All kinds of intelligent innovations are still emerging, especially the transformer-based large model is accelerating iteration in autonomous driving, and in the medium term, autonomous driving has entered the stage of cost decline on the hardware side, and urban NOA is expected to significantly improve the overall profitability of the industry while breaking out next year.
IFC** said that seasonal fluctuations are difficult to stop the trend of electrification, the growth of pure electric models is still strong, and overseas markets continue to maintain a high degree of prosperity, and differentiation will be the main theme in the future. This year, overseas is a market released by supply constraints, especially in Europe and the United States, which are relatively large by the first chain and shipping, and exporters Mexico and Japan, etc., and the prosperity has continued to perform strongly in 23 years. Overseas market differentiation will be the main theme, the United States is likely to continue, Europe is relatively stable, some developing countries under the exchange rate and other interference, downward pressure began to appear. It is recommended to focus on the targets with a large correlation to the prosperity of overseas automobiles, and continue to recommend the two major directions of low-cost & innovative leaders and domestic substitution.
Wind power equipment
Caixin** said that the industry ushered in an inflection point in Q3 in 23, and the investment perspective switched to 24 years. Since August 23, the industry has successively appeared good news, in September in the middle of the lower Guangdong and Jiangsu projects began to show substantial progress, the third quarter report after the disclosure of the sector trend shows that the 23 years of low growth performance has been fully priced, the investment perspective switched to 24 years. Before the disclosure of the first quarter report of 24 years, the progress of projects in various places has been accelerating, and the bidding and approval of new projects released one after another are expected to maintain the ** of the wind power sector.
Ping An ** said that the wind power sector is optimistic about the optimization of the competition pattern of the wind turbine sector and the acceleration of wind turbine companies to go to sea, and at the same time optimistic about the pipe pile and submarine cable faucets that are gradually opening up overseas markets and have attractive valuations. In the photovoltaic sector, the main photovoltaic industry chain as a whole is showing a trend of intensified competition, and the future competition pattern and profitability still need to be further wait-and-see, and it is recommended to pay attention to the n-type cell link where the penetration rate is increasing rapidly. In the energy storage & hydrogen energy sector, the demand growth rate of the energy storage industry chain is slowing down, and the competition among domestic enterprises is fierce, so it is recommended to pay attention to the leading companies with strong technical and financial strength in each link. The hydrogen energy industry is about to explode, and green hydrogen electrolyzers are expected to take the lead, so it is recommended to pay attention to the elastic targets related to electrolyzers.
From August 8th to 10th, the 2nd Digital Construction Summit and the "Digital Bay Area" Development Forum will be held in Guangzhou. Among them, the Data Element Forum and the First Guangzhou Data Fair will invite all parties from government, industry, academia and research to gather and discuss, and will also show the effectiveness of the construction of the domestic data trading market through "on-site trading + professional exhibition" and discuss the development plan of the data element market. (Good for the concept of data elements).
2. Recently, Google has launched a new round of product releases, including AI software and computing hardware. At the model level, Google has released its latest multimodal model, Gemini, which is trained on TPU and can generalize and seamlessly understand, manipulate, and combine different types of information. The model includes three versions, Ultra, Pro, and Nano, and is capable of running efficiently on all devices, from data centers to mobile devices. The TPU has also been updated to the V5P version, which is 2% more cost-effective than the previous generation TPU V43 times. (Good for the artificial intelligence sector).
3. The General Administration of Customs announced on December 7 that in November this year, the total import and export value of China's goods was 37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, the trend of foreign trade stability and improvement was further consolidated. According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months of this year, the total import and export value of China's goods was 3796 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year. Of these, export 216 trillion yuan, an increase of 03%；Import 1636 trillion yuan, down 05%。In the month of November, imports and exports 37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%；Exit 21 trillion yuan, an increase of 17%；Import 16 trillion yuan, an increase of 06%。(Positive ** Sector).
4. According to the Financial Associated Press, citing Taiwan media news, Western Digital (WD), the world's fourth largest storage-based NAND Flash company, issued a price increase notice letter to customers, emphasizing that NAND chip products will be cyclical in the next few quarters, and the cumulative increase is expected to be 55%, and the rise of NAND chips is unstoppable. At this stage, the industry is more optimistic about the rebound of the ** business, compared with the current ** business and customer individual notice adjustment**, Western Digital issued a price increase letter to customers, and the expected price increase is amazing, opening the first shot of the industry's comprehensive price increase. (Good for the chip sector).
On July 7, the Ministry of Science and Technology released the "Reply to Recommendation No. 2199 of the First Session of the 14th National People's Congress" on the official website. The Ministry of Science and Technology said that it will rely on the "14th Five-Year Plan" national key research and development plan to actively support the basic research of maglev power technology. For example, in the key project of "Transportation Equipment and Intelligent Transportation Technology", we will continue to support the engineering technology and operation system integration technology of high-speed maglev transportation system, and study and form a high-speed maglev test line plan with a speed of 600 kilometers per hour and a complete set of solutions for commercial operation, so as to provide scientific and technological support for the development of high-speed maglev transportation in China. (Good for the concept of magnetic levitation).
6. According to the official WeChat of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, on December 6, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium of the directors of the National Communications Administration and a symposium on information and communication supervision. The meeting emphasized that the information and communication industry is a strategic, basic and leading industry of the national economy, and it is necessary to persist in promoting the modernization and development of the industry, continue to consolidate and enhance the competitive advantage and leading position of the industry, adhere to the digital transformation of the real economy, and consolidate the technology, network, application, market and security foundation of services to support new industrialization. It is necessary to accelerate the optimization and upgrading of new information infrastructure, promote the coordinated development of "double gigabit", accelerate the layout of intelligent computing facilities, optimize the Internet network architecture, and improve the green and low-carbon level of information infrastructure. (Good for the computing power sector).
7. The "Overall Plan for Comprehensively Aligning with International High-standard Economic and Trade Rules and Promoting High-level Institutional Opening-up in the China (Shanghai) Pilot Zone" was issued a few days ago. The Plan focuses on 7 aspects and proposes 80 measures. Among them, it is proposed to speed up the expansion of services. Promote high-level opening-up in key areas such as finance and telecommunications, enhance cross-border investment and financing facilitation, support multinational companies in setting up fund management centers, improve the quality of telecommunications services, and lead the institutional opening up of the service industry. (Positive market sentiment).
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