RMB exchange rateIt has been in a continuous ** situation, but suddenly there is a large **. The biggest drop of the week exceeded 500 points, raising concerns about the followingRMBThe question of whether the trend will reverse. Over the past few weeks,RMBThree weeks in a row**, but the increase is gradually decreasing, seems to imply:RMBThe power is decaying. However, we need to do an in-depth analysis of this time to understand the reasons behind it.
InEconomyIn operation, exchange rate fluctuations are unavoidable. RMB exchange rateThere is complexity behind the **and**Economyfactors and the role of market factors. Over the past few weeks,RMBThe driving force is mainly in our countryEconomycontinuous improvement. The latest CaixinpmiThe data shows that the manufacturing and service sectorspmiare more than 50, meaning:EconomyIn the expansion zone. However, we are currentEconomyIt's in a shift period, **andInvestmentsNone of the major ones are anymoreEconomyDriving force. Therefore,EconomyStructural adjustment and the growth of domestic demand will be the futureEconomyDevelopment focus. This kindEconomyStructural adjustments are inevitably accompaniedEconomyfluctuations and fluctuations in exchange rates, tooRMBIt is a normal phenomenon to have **.
withRMB**This is in line with a significant increase in the share of payments made in US dollars. According to the latest data from SWIFT, the share of payments in US dollars reached 4725%, up from six months ago, raising questions about whether de-dollarization has failed. However, we need to look at this issue more holistically.
First of all, the increase in the share of the dollar is mainly due to the decline in the share of the euro. The euro used to account for a similar share of global currency payments as the US dollar, but now only 2336%。Secondly, as more and more countries use local currency for settlement bilaterally**, and the expansion of the application of other payment systems, SWIFT only counts partial currency payments, and does not cover all. In particular, our country is advancingRMBProgress in internationalization, bilateral** and figuresRMBwill be promotedRMBinternational use. In addition, China's self-developed CIPS system continues to expand in coverage, and many of these payments are not carried out through the SWIFT system, so they are not counted.
Therefore, while the share of payments in the US dollar has risen, this does not mean that the de-dollarization effort has failed. In fact, we should be aware that de-dollarization is a long-term process that requires a combination of factors. FiguresRMBThe promotion of our country inPayment SettlementIndependent research and development in this field will contribute to the diversified development of the global monetary system in the future.
The biggest uncertainty at the moment is the Federal Reserve's upcoming last interest rate meeting of the year. Despite the fact that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates again, there are still concerns about possible surprises during the meeting. In addition, the Fed's expectations for future interest rates will also have an impact on market sentiment. As a result, there is a lot of volatility in the exchange rate market until the end of the Fed meeting.
However, although the exchange rate will be affected by many uncertainties in the short term, in the medium and long termMacroeconomicsTrends continue to be an important factor in determining the movement of the exchange rate. Currently in our countryEconomyContinue to improve, CaixinpmiThe data shows that both the manufacturing and services sectors are in expansion territory, which suggestsEconomyis steadily developing. At the same time, our country passed the adjustmentEconomystructure and efforts to increase domestic demand are actively responding to the instability of the external environment. These positive factors will be:RMB's long-term trend provides support.
To sum up, this timeRMBThe sudden plunge of 300 points has raised concerns and questions. However, we need to look at this phenomenon more holistically. Exchange rate fluctuations are normal and subject to a variety of factorsEconomyand the impact of market factors. The outcome of de-dollarization efforts should not be judged by short-term statistics, but should be viewed from a longer-term perspective. At the same time,MacroeconomicsThe trend is the main determinant of the exchange rate trend, the current ChinaEconomyContinue to improve and actively respond to the challenges of the external environment, which will beRMBprovides stable support for the long-term trend. Overall,RMBThe trend is still expected to continue.