In December 2023, there were signs of stabilization in high-frequency real estate data. Let's wait for the December data, in a sense, the real estate data is the decisive data, once the real estate ** month-on-month stabilization, we have the courage to look at the economy.Domestic: Liquidity is very strong
Since the beginning of the year, on the whole, the four-day trading of Hang Seng and A shares have retraced, A shares have touched the 2900 support level again, and Hang Seng has touched the 16500 level. In the overall drawdown, domestic liquidity, the central bank did have a large area, and the global liquidity related to Hang Seng also had certain disturbance factors due to the slight rise in the dollar index. In addition to liquidity, there are several key data factors, and the Chinese side is the December PMI announcement, of which the manufacturing industry is 490%, continue to fall. However, the non-manufacturing PMI is in the expansion range, which is more in line with our feelings, and everyone's enthusiasm for travel is still very high. On the whole, residents are very sensitive to **, and everyone is still consuming, but the ultimate pursuit of cost performance. To a certain extent, the popularity of the Northeast is very related to the actual Save of the Northeast **.
Looking back at the performance of assets in 2023, it can be observed that when the PMI data performs poorly, the overall performance is not very good. The December PMI may be a sign that other relevant data will not be particularly good either. Moreover, high-frequency financial data and the yield on large certificates of deposit fell rapidly after soaring in December, and the demand for funds weakened. Next week's financial data may not be particularly good either. After entering January, all localities will enter the rhythm of the two sessions one after another, and the local two sessions are not as decisive as the two sessions, but of course, there will be a lot of positive news. Whether the support level of A-share 2900 can be maintained, let's wait and see. In December 2023, there were signs of stabilization in high-frequency real estate data. Let's wait for the December data, in a sense, the real estate data is the decisive data, once the real estate ** month-on-month stabilization, we have the courage to look at the economy.
US: The path of interest rate cuts is unclear
The external market experienced nine consecutive suns before Christmas, and the dollar index retreated rapidly, which was largely affected by the optimism conveyed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, but there was a significant liquidity retreat in the five trading days after Christmas, and the dollar index began to turn back again, and the global ** market fell, the bulk ** fell, and bond yields rose. This kind of liquidity has its specific stage, because the economy itself is a kind of impulse progress. However, this liquidity may be a short-term phenomenon, and it is difficult to change the general trend of the dollar index.
In addition to liquidity, there are also three data worth paying attention to, one is the US CPI data for December, which will be released soon. The market expects that the CPI in December may be the same as in November, and referring to the situation of inflation data in Germany and France, the inflation data in the United States in December may not be ideal, especially the oil ** after entering the $70 barrel, showing quite strong stability. The ** of 70 is still quite high. There are various indications that the US CPI index may be quite resilient in the first quarter, and the external market may enter a volatile process. When you get a certain rate of return, you need to exit in time. The second is the US GDP data for the fourth quarter. Data from the Atlanta Fed GDPnow showed that the US GDP in the fourth quarter was 2-23% in the range, compared to 4 in the third quarter of the United StatesThe growth rate of 9% has a large drawdown, this data has a fairly high trading value, once it is far more than 2%, it can be resolutely bullish. The third is the US employment data. The unemployment rate has a rising trend, job vacancies and turnover rates have declined, and the weakness of the U.S. labor market is conducive to the expansion of global mobility, which indicates that the United States will not enter a situation of micro-stagflation, and the faster the labor market slows down, the lower the resilience index of the CPI will be, and the higher the market's bet on the U.S. interest rate cut. This is where the global** market continues to rise at a rapid pace, even if the CPI hovers around 3%.
In addition to the data, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes were also released, and what was discussed a lot was that the United States did not mention interest rate cuts in the meeting minutes, and the market interpreted it as hawkish. However, referring to Powell's attitude of "actively cutting interest rates" at the press conference, it can be understood that the minutes of the meeting are actually consistent with the Fed's hawkish statement after the press conference, which is to adopt a verbal control strategy and do not want the financial environment to ease too quickly. The release of the minutes did not change the shape of the market as a whole.
Here's the high-frequency data for the week:
Real estate
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