gf]2003[ gf][gf]2003[ gf]
gf]2003[ gf][gf]2003[gf]January: The new housing market fell seasonally, and both supply and demand were weak.
GF]2003[ GF][gf]2003[ GF]Top 100 Real Estate Enterprises in January performance decreased by 34 year-on-year2%, a new low in recent years.
gf]2003[ gf][gf]2003[gf]Interpretation of the list.
GF]2003[ GF][gf]2003[ GF]Foreword: In January 2024, the new housing market will fall seasonally, and the supply and demand of new houses will be weak, and the month-on-month decline will be more than 4%, which is also a low hovering compared with the same period since 2019: the key 30 cities** fell by 47% month-on-month, and still increased by 16% year-on-year; The transaction fell year-on-year, and the overall bottom continued to be built**.
GF]2003[ GF][GF]2003[ GF]At the corporate level, China's real estate market continued to be under pressure in January, with sluggish demand and purchasing power, and corporate sales as a whole remained low. The TOP100 real estate companies only achieved sales of 2350600 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 342%, down 479%, a new low in recent years.
gf]2003[ gf][gf]2003[ gf] predicts the next month**, February coincides with the traditional Spring Festival, superimposed on the current downturn**, and is expected to continue to supply and demand. It is worth noting that at the end of the month, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Shanghai and other cities have successively loosened purchase restrictions, and the core first- and second-tier cities are likely to follow up one after another.
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GF]2003[ GF][gf]2003[ GF]Top 100 Real Estate Enterprises in January performance decreased by 34 year-on-year2%
GF]2003[ GF][gf]2003[ GF]In January 2024, China's real estate market continued to be under pressure, with market expectations of insufficient support, sluggish demand and purchasing power, and overall low operation. In January, the TOP100 real estate companies only achieved sales of 2,350600 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 342%, down 479%, a new low in recent years.
GF]2003[ GF][GF]2003[ GF]At present, the industry is still in the risk clearance period, although the recent policy has been continuously optimized and released, and the regulator supports the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises and boosts market confidence. However, it will take time for market confidence and industry expectations to recover, and it is expected that there will be no obvious signs of warming in the short term. In 2024, real estate companies still need to take active measures to adapt to new changes, promote sales decentralization, and ensure liquidity security.
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GF]2003[ GF][gf]2003[ GF]Top 100 Real Estate Enterprises The threshold of each echelon has decreased significantly.
In January 2024, the sales thresholds of the top 100 real estate companies at each echelon were further lowered compared with the same period last year, and the thresholds fell to the lowest level in recent years. Among them, the threshold for the sales of TOP10 real estate enterprises was reduced by 32 year-on-year7% to 72400 million yuan. The changes in the pattern of TOP30 and TOP50 real estate enterprises have intensified, and the thresholds have been reduced by 38 year-on-year respectively1% and 385% to 16600 million yuan and 9600 million yuan. The threshold for the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies has also been lowered by 217% to 3700 million yuan.
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GF]2003[ GF][gf]2003[ GF]In January, the supply and demand of new houses fell by more than 4 percent, and the same period was low.
gf]2003[gf][gf]2003[gf]2003[gf] is expected to remain sluggish in February.
GF]2003[ gf][gf]2003[ GF]At the beginning of January, the new housing market fell seasonally, and the supply and demand of new houses were weak and the month-on-month decline was more than 4 percent, compared with the same period since 2019, it was also a low hovering: the key 30 cities** fell 47% month-on-month, and still increased by 16% year-on-year; The transaction fell year-on-year, and the overall bottom continued to be built**. The performance of first-tier cities was slightly better than that of second- and third-tier cities, and the overall month-on-month decline was less than the average of 30 cities.
GF]2003[ GF][gf]2003[ GF] sub-energy levels, different energy levels showed a year-on-year decline, but the first-line month-on-month decline was slightly lower than that of the second and third lines. Specifically, the total transaction volume in first-tier cities was 1.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22% and 38% respectively. Among them, the heat of the Shanghai and Beijing markets has steadily declined, with a month-on-month decline of more than 4%. Taking Shanghai as an example, although the beginning of the year is a good new deal, the superposition continues: Jinshan will be exempted from transportation fees within 5 years, the proportion of the second set of down payments of the provident fund will be reduced, and the new policies for talents will be introduced in Fengxian and Qingpu New Town, etc., but the policy effect is not as expected, and the new housing transactions in Shanghai in 2024 will be carried out week by week, and the single purchase restriction relaxation policy at the end of the month will be released, and the stimulus effect of the transaction side is expected to be reflected in February. Although Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell month-on-month, they continued to increase year-on-year. Guangzhou ushered in the relaxation of purchase restrictions in the second half of the year, and the effect of the policy still needs time to continue to ferment.
GF]2003[ GF][gf]2003[ GF]The total transaction volume in second- and third-tier cities was 7.37 million square meters, down 44% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year. In terms of absolute volume, the gradient is clear, only Chengdu has a monthly transaction volume of more than 1 million square meters, followed by Xi'an, which also reached 700,000 square meters in January, and the rest of the second-tier cities have less than 500,000 square meters of transactions in a single month. On a month-on-month basis, only one city in Changzhou rebounded in stages, with a slight increase of 9% month-on-month, and most cities ushered in a phased decline. On a year-on-year basis, only Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Foshan, Wuxi, Zhuhai and Jiaxing performed slightly better than the same period last year, mainly due to the low base of the Spring Festival last year. At present, transactions in most cities are still in a downturn, and the new policies in some cities are also showing a decreasing marginal effect, and only a few central and western cities such as Chengdu and Xi'an have strong market resilience.
gf]2003[gf][gf]2003[gf]predicts the next month**, February coincides with the traditional Spring Festival, superimposed on the current downturn**, it is expected to continue the supply and demand are weak, affected by the weak economy and the downgrading of purchasing power just demand, the traditional "return to the hometown" or will "miss the contract", which will make part of the labor export market bleak. However, it is worth noting that at the end of the month, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Shanghai and other cities have successively loosened purchase restrictions, and the core first- and second-tier cities are likely to follow up one after another.
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Article**: Kerry