Recently, a number of financial institutions around the world released their 2024 economic outlook reports, believing that the foundation for China's economic stabilization and recovery will be further consolidated, and technological innovation and industrial transformation will continue to stimulate endogenous momentum. Some US think tanks, experts and scholars have also published articles and reports, calling on the US to maintain rational communication with China, properly manage differences, promote practical cooperation, and create a favorable environment for promoting economic and trade exchanges and the development of relations between the two countries.
China's role in the global energy transition is becoming increasingly prominent.
According to the report released by UBS, China adheres to high-quality development and pays attention to the role of domestic demand, and green economy and high-tech will become new growth drivers. JPMorgan Chase's research report believes that China's consumer side may continue the recovery momentum in 2023 in 2024. The Goldman Sachs Group report believes that China's economic development will enter a more stable stage.
Oaktree Capital, a world-renowned investment management company, said in its first article that the world is accelerating the green transformation of its development mode, and China has advantages in technology, market and raw materials in the field of renewable energy, and its important role in the global energy transition process is becoming increasingly prominent.
Ken Griffin, founder and CEO of Castle Investment Group, said at the International Financial Leaders Investment Summit that there is much more innovation coming from countries outside the United States than there were 50 years ago. China has a competitive advantage in solar energy and electric vehicle technology. Global investors should focus on and invest in China to capture the opportunities presented by its innovation and growth.
Ali Wynne, a senior analyst of the global macro business of the Eurasia Group of the United States, recently published an article in the US magazine "Foreign Policy" saying that the International Monetary Organization's economic growth this year is much higher than that of the developed economies. Through the development of specialized, special and new "little giant" and "single champion" enterprises, China still has growth potential and space in key and emerging technology fields.
In the process of improving productivity and green technologies to combat climate change, the attempt to cut off new technologies in China and other countries is not conducive to improving its own resilience and security.
China is a major partner of many developed and developing countries.
According to a research report released by the Center for a New American Security, China's manufacturing industry has become one of the drivers of the global economy because of its scale and high efficiency, and the added value of China's manufacturing industry will account for nearly 30% of the global manufacturing industry in 2022. China's manufacturing industry covers electronics, machinery and automobiles, especially in high-tech industries such as new energy vehicles, next-generation information technology and advanced robotics. China's economy has given birth to a number of large technology companies, and it has also made significant progress in developing its service sector. Exports are important to the Chinese market, but the United States is equally dependent on importing a variety of products from the Chinese market.
According to the study, China is a major partner of many developed and developing countries. China has actively participated in bilateral and multilateral cooperation agreements, signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and has continuously expanded its cooperation with developing countries in Africa, Latin America and other regions. Western policymakers should expect that the damage caused by the "sanctions" against China will ripple across the globe.
According to the Wall Street newspaper on February 4, over the years, the world's largest companies have flocked to China, attracted by the prospect of a growing consumer market. Apple CEO Tim Cook told analysts on Feb. 1: "We've been in China for 30 years, and I'm still very optimistic about China in the long run." Procter & Gamble's global chairman, president and chief executive officer, James Muren, said at a recent earnings conference** that the increase in China's middle-income consumer base is an encouraging sign that "China's long-term opportunities remain." Mondelēz International, Inc., the manufacturer of Oreo biscuits, expects China to continue to drive the growth of the global snack market. In recent years, Mondelēz International has struggled to bring its products to smaller cities in China and then deliver them to more stores and launch more products. Mondelēz International said on Jan. 30 that sales growth in China and other emerging markets helped boost the snack company's revenue in the latest quarter, and the momentum is expected to continue.
The U.S. magazine Foreign Affairs recently published an article entitled "The Problem of "De-risking: The Clean Energy Transition Needs to Be Carried Out with China". The article argues that when it comes to clean energy, Western leaders have not yet fully understood or communicated to the public the difficulty of "de-risking". Simply subsidizing the cost differential with taxpayers' money or banning imports from China will only increase the cost of clean energy. China is not only a leader in the production and deployment of clean energy technologies, but also in innovation.
Restricting China's economic growth weakens the United States. Mary Lovely, a professor of economics at Syracuse University, published an article at the Brookings Institution, arguing that the U.S. attempt to limit China's growth has a devastating impact on the stability of U.S.-China relations. The U.S. tariffs have led to fewer U.S. imports from China, accelerated the shift of some industries to other regions, caused significant losses to U.S. consumers and businesses, and reduced the competitiveness of U.S. exporters of intermediate goods from China. The U.S. tariffs are a clear violation of the world's non-discriminatory commitments. Distortion or destruction of the rules has tarnished the prestige of American business.
Building a resilient bilateral relationship is essential.
Recently, some scholars and think tanks in the United States have published articles calling for the correct handling of US-China relations. Ryan Ho, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, published an article in Foreign Affairs magazine, saying that the United States needs to accept China and welcome China to play a greater role in the international system, and criticized the "decoupling and breaking of the chain" of the United States.
The Diplomat published a chapter by Kim Kai, a nonresident scholar at the George Washington University School of International Politics, "Making the U.S.-China Relationship More Resilient," emphasizing that "building a resilient U.S.-China bilateral relationship is essential." The article argues that a resilient bilateral relationship requires more choices, connections, and mechanisms from both sides. The United States and China need to find more sustainable mechanisms for cooperation, including but not limited to global issues, regional crises, and reform of international institutions.
The Stimson Center in the United States released a report that the United States now needs to rethink how it deals with other countries. "Partnering with China is in the long-term interest of the United States and will pave the way for addressing climate change, poverty, disease, and other global challenges." ”
Rory Truks, an associate professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University, said in an article in the Washington Post that the U.S. "decoupling" policy toward China has weakened its ability to study China. The article points out that there is a serious shortage of experts on China issues in the United States at present. Some of the U.S. policies have weakened the U.S. ability to access China's expertise. He believes that in terms of stabilizing the relationship between the two countries, the reconstruction of academic exchanges is an area full of opportunities. The United States** should respond by resuming and expanding relevant academic exchange programs; reduce pressure on Chinese citizens traveling to the United States and downplay the absurd narrative that Chinese students and scholars are called spies; Provide more support for Chinese courses at U.S. universities and high schools, and provide funding for researchers studying China.
John Thornton, chairman emeritus of the board of directors of the Brookings Institution and global chairman of the Asia Society, said in an interview that the fundamental problem between the United States and China is the lack of understanding of China in the United States. Changing this will take time, education and experience. "Understanding another culture is not easy, and strengthening the U.S.-China relationship in the new era requires humility, curiosity, understanding, and empathy. He said that the most beneficial or important content between the United States and China is people-to-people exchanges, which is also one of the most promising areas between the United States and China.