The minutes of the Fed's January policy meeting, like a bellwether, let the market see the Fed's concern about premature interest rate cuts. And the intensive speeches of many ** have added fuel to the fire of this worry.
First of all, we should note that the Fed's "hawkish" style is gradually strengthening. The Fed is more concerned about the damage that a premature rate cut could do to inflation than the stimulus effect of a rate cut. This concern has led to a damper on market expectations of interest rate cuts, and investment institutions such as Goldman Sachs have had to postpone the time window for interest rate cuts from May to June.
On the other hand, the strong performance of initial jobless claims data released last week is further proof of the resilience of the US economy. This has also led many economists to raise their forecasts for the U.S. economy to grow in 2024. They believe that even if inflation eases further, monetary policy authorities are likely to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time.
In this context, the Shanghai gold market seems to be in a state of flux. The Fed's "hawkish" style squeezed market expectations of interest rate cuts, cooling the dollar index. This lowers the cost of buying in US dollars in overseas markets, thereby increasing the power of gold price buyers. Combined with the safe-haven demand brought about by the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and other factors, the COMEX gold price has been strongly supported.
However, despite the support in gold prices, the blockage of interest rate cut expectations has made it difficult for gold prices to find sufficient upward momentum. It is expected that in the short term, gold prices may maintain a trend of high levels**. A series of important economic data due this week, such as US durable goods orders for January, revised GDP for Q4 2023 and personal consumption expenditures price index for January, will be important factors affecting gold prices.
Market participants generally believe that gold prices are likely to react to core PCE inflation data. A better-than-expected reading would further undermine the market's confidence in a rate cut in June, triggering volatility in the market's risk appetite. And a weak data could revive expectations of a rate cut in May, which would give gold a boost.
In addition, manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI data from China will be released this week. If both of these data are in the expansion range above 50, it is expected to bring an optimistic demand outlook for **.
Regarding today's technical side, you can take a look at the article on Shanghai Gold released on the 22nd, if there is a serious partner, it should be done at the point, and today's morning market**, if you have to see, the position has been prompted obviously. 481.7. The first short target level, the left side is well controlled, and the small stop loss is done. There's nothing to say, after reading the above news side, it's useless not to do the technical side below.
Personal advice, for reference only. over