Li Chaowen. The new quality productivity includes strategic emerging industries and future industries, corresponding to the track of big technology, big health and big manufacturing
In September 2023, when the general secretary inspected Heilongjiang and presided over the symposium on promoting the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China in the new era, he proposed "new quality productivity" for the first time, pointing out that "integrate scientific and technological innovation resources, lead the development of strategic emerging industries and future industries, and accelerate the formation of new quality productivity".
By definition, the new quality of productivity is a new type of productivity that represents new technologies, creates new value, adapts to new industries, and reshapes new kinetic energy, and the development of new quality productivity is an important measure to consolidate the material and technological foundation of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way. From the perspective of composition, the formation of new quality productive forces requires the expansion of strategic emerging industries and the active development of future industries.
From the perspective of industry division, the secondary market track covered by the new quality productivity includes big technology industries such as computers, electronics, and communications; power equipment, machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry, automobile and other large manufacturing industries; Medicine, biology and other big health industries.
How did the concept of new qualitative productivity originate and emerge?
We believe that the new quality of productivity may come from the new domain and new quality of combat forces in the military field, and is more manifested in the context of overall development and security, relying on scientific and technological innovation to promote industrial innovation, especially the use of disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies to give birth to new industries, new models, and new kinetic energy. At present, the strategic game between major powers has obviously heated up, the international balance of forces has been profoundly adjusted, and the instability and uncertainty of the international situation have increased significantly.
According to the elaboration of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for national defense modernization, the new domain and new quality combat forces are oriented to mechanization-based, information-oriented, and intelligent directions, and the development of highly developed mechanization and a higher level of informatization in the process of promoting intelligence, which is also consistent with the connotation of the new quality productivity emphasizing digital intelligence technology and green technology to inject new kinetic energy into traditional industries.
What is the key point to grasp the new quality productivity?
In the context of the new era, laborers, means of production and their corresponding production relations are undergoing profound changes. To develop the new quality of productive forces, we should focus on the following three directions: First, we should build a new type of labor force, second, we should master and make good use of new production tools, and third, we should shape the production relations that are suitable for the new quality of productive forces.
How to measure the development of new quality productivity initiatives?
In December 2023, the relevant responsible comrades of the Finance Office explained in detail the six major policy measures to support the development of new quality productivity, in order to better measure and track the actual effect of the new quality productivity policy measures, we have constructed four categories of indicators: potential indicators, supply indicators, production indicators and distribution indicators.
Among them, the potential index focuses on reflecting the development foundation and potential of new quality productivity; The supply index reflects the supply capacity of new quality productivity; The demand indicator focuses on the demand market for new quality productivity and domestic and external demand; The distribution index reflects the rational distribution of human capital, data elements, capital elements and other factors in the development of new quality productive forces.
Due to the rise of China's new quality productivity, the relevant official data has not yet been perfected, therefore, at present, our focus is to establish an indicator system framework that conforms to economic logic, and the specific indicators will be transferred in or out accordingly in the future with the improvement of official data.
The new quality productivity includes 8 emerging industries and 9 future industries
On August 22, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Energy Administration, and the National Standards Committee, issued the Implementation Plan for the New Industry Standardization Pilot Project (2023 2035). The article points out: "New industries refer to emerging industries and future industries that apply new technologies to develop and grow, which have the characteristics of active innovation, technology-intensive and broad development prospects, which are related to the overall situation of national economic and social development and industrial structure optimization and upgrading." "We believe that to a large extent, the industry scope has been framed for the new quality productivity and the emerging industries and future industries it covers, which can be used as the industrial layout direction of the future new quality productivity, mainly including 8 emerging industries and 9 future industries.
Emerging industries include a new generation of information technology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, new energy vehicles, green environmental protection, civil aviation, shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment, etc.; Future industries include nine future industries, including the metaverse, brain-computer interface, quantum information, humanoid robots, generative artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, future display, future network, and new energy storage.
What are the new productivity support policies?
The monetary and financial support policies for new productive forces mainly involve five aspects: strengthening top-level design, supporting science and technology loans, broadening financing channels, promoting cross-border financing, and building a pilot zone for scientific and technological innovation financial reform.
The focus of fiscal policy is to coordinate with industrial and scientific and technological policies, and for new productive forces, fiscal policy focuses on financial support, fiscal interest discounts, tax cuts and fee reductions to provide support and policy inclination.
The industrial policy will adhere to the promotion of innovation, on the one hand, relying on the new system of rejuvenating the country to concentrate on doing big things, on the other hand, strengthening the main position of enterprises in scientific and technological innovation, and paying attention to the implementation of five major aspects in specific measures: the future industrial innovation task is unveiled, the new industrial standard is preempted, the industrial structure adjustment catalogue is increased to encourage new quality productivity related fields, the national high-tech zone attracts investment and accelerates the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries such as intelligence, greening and high-end.
What are the main investment opportunities in traditional productivity?
The investment opportunities of traditional productivity focus on two major aspects, one of which is the steady growth chain of real estate infrastructure, under the positive tone of the first economic work meeting, the first leveraged and actively exert force, and the local government actively plans around the transformation of urban villages and the construction of affordable housing, and it is expected that the three major projects are expected to bring positive support to the real estate infrastructure, thereby promoting economic growth and repair. Second, under the catalysis of the gradual start of the U.S. replenishment cycle, the "cost-effective dividend" brought by China's supply advantage is worth paying attention to, and we suggest that the short-term focus is on two major directions, one of which is the export of mechanical and electrical products, involving consumer electronics, automobiles and parts, home appliances, machinery, etc. The second is furniture, home appliances, light industry, textiles and clothing related to the post-cycle of real estate in the United States, and machinery and chemicals related to the return of manufacturing in the United States and the increase in capital expenditure.
What are the investment opportunities for new and traditional productivity in 2024?
We expect the economy to be in the process of returning to the center of potential growth in 2024. In the first half of 2024, it is expected that the market risk appetite will be generally low, and traditional productivity will be relatively dominant, and infrastructure-related cyclical stocks may benefit relatively in the first half of 2024.
With the economy hitting a high level, it is expected that the risk-free interest rate may show a volatile downward trend in the second half of the year, coupled with the steady recovery of market confidence, a two-bull pattern of stocks and bonds may be formed in the second half of 2024, and the track of developing new quality productivity may usher in the release of valuation elasticity, including manufacturing, technology and medicine. We further suggest that if there is a new technological breakthrough, new quality productivity may usher in occasional investment opportunities.
The author is the chief economist of Zheshang**; This is an abstract of the full text).
Editor-in-charge: Liu Jinping Editor-in-chief: **