【Reading guide】January 2024 will enter the middle of the month, the first day of the lunar month will come, in the domestic grain and pig markets, the trend will be lower, among them, in the pig market, pig prices will usher in "9 consecutive drops", and the average price of live pigs will be further adjusted downward. In the grain market, grain prices have "changed", corn and wheat have "fallen miserably", although the corn market in Shandong has stopped falling, but the situation in the Northeast has deteriorated. In the wheat market, wheat prices are affected by the price of corn, and there is also a large-scale downward trend! So, what's happening in the market?
First, the sentiment of selling grain is high, and the decline of corn is highlighted!
In the context of the increase in autumn grain corn production of 13.2 million tons, the downstream demand is cautious, and the mentality of grain farmers holding grain is gradually loosened, the amount of corn is increasing, and the trend of deep processing is maintained at a low level!
At present, due to the concentration of grain sources in Northeast China, the arrival of corn at the port has increased, but the downstream orders are small, and the corn at the port has been declining. Domestic corn spot **maintain** lower situation! Among them, in the Northeast market, as the Spring Festival date approaches, the grassroots grain selling mentality is heating up, superimposed, the support of grain storage for the corn market is weak, and the grain farmers have a certain panic to realize the mood.
Among them, in Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia, deep processing enterprises, corn ** is generally lowered by 05 1 cents, among them, Jilin fuel ethanol, COFCO Biochemical Longjiang, Longjiang Fufeng, Hohshi Fufeng, Zhalantun Fufeng, etc., the mainstream corn ** in 10 20 yuan tons, Heilongjiang corn ** in 0845~1.12 yuan jin, Jilin ** in 1125~1.165 yuan jin, Liaoning ** in 1175~1.18 yuan catty!
In North China, due to the sharp drop in local deep processing prices, some enterprises in Shandong are less than 12 yuan catty, the local farmers' subscription mentality has weakened, the circulation of corn has shrunk, the amount of enterprises has decreased, the price support has deteriorated, and the corn ** is slightly stable!
Among them, in the Shandong market, the arrival of deep processing fell to about 740 cars, and the local deep processing enterprises were stable, only the price of Linyi Qixing lemon was 10 yuan tons, and the mainstream corn in Shandong was 1193~1.285 yuan catty! In Hebei, Henan, Shaanxi and other places, Feitian starch, Baoji Fufeng, Ningxia Yipin, Shanxi Changqing, Pingliang Guowei, Huaxing alcohol and Mengzhou golden corn, etc., mainstream enterprises fell by 05 1 point, corn spot ** at 1185~1.26 yuan catty!
Second, wheat ** large-scale downward adjustment!
In the wheat market, in the past few days, with the weakening of the impact of temporary storage wheat delivery, superimposed, the local reserve wheat bidding transaction heat has rebounded, the domestic spot wheat has been slightly raised, and some grain holders have a certain price operation! However, due to the sharp decline in corn ** in Northeast China and Shandong, corn ** in some areas of Shandong is less than 12 yuan catty, the panic mentality of the grain merchants in the wheat market has increased, the phenomenon of some merchants cashing out has increased, the wheat arrival in front of the milling enterprises is loose, the factory is affected by multiple factors, and the price reduction mentality has become stronger, and the domestic wheat has bucked the trend!
Among them, in Shandong, Hebei and Henan and other places, the mainstream milling enterprises, wheat ***05 1 pound, only Xianyang Wudeli and Keming starch ***20 yuan tons, of which, in Shandong, wheat spot ** in 1405~1.45 yuan catty, Hebei mainstream enterprises ** in 1395~1.435 yuan jin, Henan market ** in 138~1.47 yuan or so!
At present, the wheat market, this round of business realization and grain mentality has increased, and on the demand side, in the near future, the operating rate of milling enterprises has been weakened, and some enterprises still have the phenomenon of stopping harvesting, especially in the domestic winter wheat producing areas, some enterprises have reduced their bran to about 1500 1600 yuan tons, and the by-products of enterprises are low, and the factory is worried, and the flour is not smooth, which also exacerbates the mentality of enterprises to reduce prices and replenish the warehouse!
However, due to the grassroots effective food source in general, flour consumption into the wax month or will gradually improve, I personally believe that the wheat market is still strong expectations, however, the range or will be limited, focus on the news of the temporary storage of wheat transactions!
3. Pig ** "9 consecutive drops"!
Entering 2024, on January 2, the pig price will briefly ** to 1412 yuan kg, the market ushered in the first tide, while the consumption inertia declined, the pace of passive de-production of some large-scale pig enterprises accelerated, and the price of pigs fell more than once, as of January 11, the outer ternary pig ** fell to 1362 yuan kg, pig prices ushered in "9 consecutive falls"!
Judging from market feedback, at present, the operating rate of domestic sample slaughterhouses is 3647%, an increase of 022 percentage points, the increase in the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises, is not a significant improvement in consumer demand, on the contrary, by the increase in the source of pigs at the breeding end, some slaughtering enterprises have the phenomenon of passive storage! From the grassroots feedback, with the end of the southern pickling cycle, pork consumption has cooled down significantly, Sichuan and Chongqing and the two Guangxi areas, residents have just weakened the demand for pickling, the pressure on the surplus of white pigs in the wholesale market has increased sharply, and some markets have seen a bad market.
At the same time, by the poor demand in the south, the breeding end of the pressure bar weight gain sentiment cooling, in particular, the risk of large pig pressure fence is getting worse, the standard fertilizer price spread inversion phenomenon has further increased, the breeding end of the slaughter panic is high, some scale pig enterprises are facing an extremely difficult situation, passively increase the rhythm of production capacity elimination, eliminate sows, large pigs and small and medium-sized pigs slaughter enthusiasm increased, in some areas, pig sources gradually transferred to the north, which also intensified the pressure on pig prices in the north and south of the country!
By the long and short game, the stage of pig prices show a trend of the trend, from the latest market feedback, the slaughterhouse pig source is still fast, the time of closure is greatly advanced, the next 1 3 days, pig prices will still be in the first stage of decline, the average price of domestic pigs will also hit the bottom of the stage again!
Food prices have "changed"! On January 11, pig prices "fell for 9 consecutive years", and corn and wheat "fell miserably"! What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet!
Hogs**