Today's world is shaped by economic globalization, and protectionism cannot change the general trend of economic globalization. With a view to leading economic globalization to a steady and far-reaching scale and better benefiting the people of all countries in the world, the international community should work together to advocate economic globalization that is inclusive and inclusive.
In recent years, due to factors such as the rise of protectionism in some countries, the increase in the blockage of the global first-class chain industrial chain, and the weakness of the international market, pessimistic arguments about economic globalization have appeared from time to time in the world, and some people even claim that the world has bid farewell to the "first-class stage" of economic globalization.
In the face of the multiple problems that have emerged in the world economy, it is understandable to be worried, but pessimistic is not necessary. Economic globalization is the trend of the times, and although there have been many adverse currents and dangerous shoals, the direction of economic globalization has never changed and will not change. In the face of challenges, all countries need to answer the question of how to understand the impact and development trend of economic globalization? How do we view the twists and turns in economic globalization in recent years? How to lead economic globalization out of the current period of headwinds? Clearing the fog and forming consensus on these issues is not only related to the prospects of world economic recovery, but also to the stability of the international pattern and the direction of development of human society.
(a).
To grasp the development trend of economic globalization, we must focus on the objective law of historical development.
Historically, economic globalization is an objective requirement for the development of social productive forces and an inevitable result of scientific and technological progress. As early as the 19th century, Marx and Engels expounded in detail on the world, the world market, and world history, and profoundly revealed the nature, logic, and process of economic globalization. Looking back at history, the scientific and technological and industrial revolutions have greatly reduced the costs of global cargo transportation, information dissemination and personnel flow, and provided a profound material and technological foundation for economic globalization. After the end of the Cold War in the 90s of the last century, the antagonism between the two camps ceased to exist, the two parallel markets ceased to exist, the international division of labor system covering the whole world was finally formed, the interdependence of countries was greatly strengthened, and economic globalization developed and evolved rapidly.
The in-depth development of economic globalization has provided a strong impetus for the development and progress of human society. Especially since the end of the Cold War, economic globalization has promoted prosperity, investment facilitation, personnel flow, and technological development, and promoted the rapid development of the world economy, especially the collective rise of emerging market countries. The data shows that from 1992 to 2022, global GDP rose from about $25 trillion to about $101 trillion, per capita GDP rose from $4,659 to $12,647, and net outflows of direct investment increased from $1,863$600 million rose to $174 trillion dollars. From 1992 to 2019, the proportion of global GDP increased from 4015% to 5633%；The proportion of people living in poverty in the world has increased from 365% down to 85% and life expectancy of the population increased by 656 years to 734 years old. French economists Françoise Ben Hamou and André Catapani believe that economic globalization, based on comparative advantage, has reduced poverty in the world and inequality between economies.
In recent years, there have been twists and turns in economic globalization, mainly because of the policy shift of some Western countries. These countries used to be the main drivers of economic globalization, but now they are intensively introducing all kinds of protectionist policies. This shift has both economic and political manipulation. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the economies of some Western countries entered a period of deep adjustment, and the contradictions between domestic growth and distribution, capital and labor, efficiency and fairness became more prominent. Some politicians have taken advantage of this to make a fuss, incite populism, and attempt to treat internal and external diseases and transfer contradictions, which has led to the rise of protectionism and anti-globalization ideology. In recent years, some Western countries have been obsessed with geopolitical games, regarded the general economic ties between countries shaped by economic globalization as a security threat, and vigorously engaged in pan-politicization and pan-security, in an attempt to artificially cut off the mutually beneficial cooperative relations between enterprises of various countries. From "tariff war" to "de-risking", from "decoupling and breaking the chain" to "small courtyard and high walls", from "near-shore outsourcing" to "friendly shore outsourcing", the names are endless, and the essence is "instrumentalization and ** of the economy in order to realize the ambition of power".
International institutions see rising protectionism as a serious risk to the world economic recovery. The International Monetary Organization (IMO) has warned of a sharp rise in concerns about market fragmentation, deglobalization and nearshoring, and that measures by some countries to restrict the movement of capital, capital, technology and labor will threaten global prosperity, exacerbate world instability, and prevent countries from working together multilaterally to deliver critical public goods. According to a study by the agency, if economic fragmentation is allowed to continue, it could end up costing 7% of global gross domestic product, roughly equivalent to the annual gross domestic product of France and Germany combined. The World Bank released a report pointing out that the escalation of regional conflicts and fragmentation pose downside risks to the world economy, and the world needs to cooperate and take measures to promote integration to meet the challenges.
Today's world is shaped by economic globalization, and protectionism cannot change the general trend of economic globalization. From a global perspective, despite the hurricane of geopolitical conflicts, the whirlpool of bloc confrontation, and the undercurrent of economic recession, economic globalization is still advancing in twists and turns, and the reality of economic interdependence of various countries has not changed. According to the report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), although the total global volume will decline by about 2 trillion US dollars in 2023 due to factors such as the decline in commodities, the volume of goods will be stable and show resilience. At the same time, the global service volume increased by 500 billion US dollars, and the weight of the global service was even heavier. With the rapid development of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, the digital economy and green development have gradually become a global trend, providing new opportunities for international cooperation and injecting new momentum into the development of economic globalization. As Martin Wolff, chief economic commentator at the Financial Times, put it, the world economy remains a story of integration.
(b).
Economic globalization not only brings development opportunities, but also faces complex challenges, and making up for the equitable deficit is an important proposition that all parties need to face.
Blanco Milanovic, a well-known scholar who has studied economic globalization, once used the European football league to reveal the problems brought about by economic globalization: Europe's big teams recruit excellent players around the world, so that the results of the game are guaranteed; However, with the gradual "globalization" of Europe's major leagues, the total number of teams that can enter the ranks of Europe's elite continues to decrease, and teams from poor or small countries can hardly replicate the glory of Bucharest Star (Romania) and Red Star Belgrade (Serbia), and winning the European championship seems to be a distant dream.
At the inter-country level, the developed economies have become huge beneficiaries of economic globalization by taking advantage of their leading economic and technological advantages, as well as favorable international economic rules and the international economic order. In the past few decades, a large number of emerging economies have seized the opportunity of economic globalization, actively promoted opening up, gave full play to their comparative advantages, continuously improved their international competitiveness, and successfully promoted their own development. However, some developing economies, especially low-income economies and least developed economies, have benefited relatively little or even been "marginalized" in the process of economic globalization due to their "congenital" deficiencies in development resources and economic structure, coupled with the influence of irrational international economic rules and international economic order.
In recent years, the global North-South gap, the divergence in recovery, and the technological divide have become more prominent, and many developing countries are in dire straits. Behind the imbalance in development is the unfairness of rights, opportunities and rules. UN Secretary-General António Guterres noted that the existing structures and rules of the international financial institutions are "unfairly biased" in favour of developed countries. During the pandemic, the G7 received a total of $280 billion from the International Monetary Fund, while some of the least developed countries with populations far larger than the G7 received only about $8 billion.
At the intra-country level, there are obvious differences in the degree of benefits of different groups in some developed economies in the process of economic globalization. In the United States, financial capital and multinational corporations represented by Wall Street have made a lot of money by using global resources, but some ordinary people have become "outdated of the times", and their actual living standards have declined. The United States is constrained by capital's monopoly of political resources and is helpless against the gap between the rich and the poor. Some populist politicians have taken advantage of the discontent of some parts of the population to find scapegoats everywhere and make groundless accusations against other countries in an attempt to divert public attention from home to abroad. The interweaving of economic and political factors has led some countries to engage in unilateralism and protectionism in recent years, and to concoct discriminatory and exclusive standards and rules. Far from addressing the challenges faced by these countries themselves, these practices have disrupted the normal functioning of the world economy. Former Australian ambassador to China, Ray Rui, believes that economic globalization faces a "leadership deficit" in some countries.
It's not scary to have a problem, the key is to find an idea to solve it. American economist Joseph Stiglitz once pointed out that "the main message of economic globalization and its discontent is that the problem is not economic globalization, but how to manage this process." In the face of the challenges encountered by economic globalization, because choking on food is not the way out, only by giving good guidance can we pursue advantages and avoid disadvantages, and enhance the confidence of the people of all countries in the world in economic globalization.
(c).
Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, recently appealed: "What we need is not only crisis management, but also to find the root causes of current problems and build a more hopeful future together." With a view to leading economic globalization to a steady and far-reaching scale and better benefiting the people of all countries in the world, the international community should work together to advocate economic globalization that is inclusive and inclusive.
Economic globalization should be beneficial to all, that is, to conform to the common aspirations of all countries in the world, especially the developing countries, to solve the problem of imbalance in development between and within countries caused by the global allocation of resources, so that development is both adequate and balanced, and to promote the formation of a globalization that is conducive to the accelerated development of all countries in the world, especially the developing countries. Today, when interdependence has become ubiquitous, all countries should not only develop themselves, but also think about how to make progress in a balanced manner with the development of the world. We need to work together to make the "cake" of economic globalization bigger and fair, so that different countries, different strata and different groups of people can participate in and enjoy the fruits of economic and social development, and achieve mutual benefit and common prosperity.
In the face of the severe challenge of the widening global development divide, the international community should adhere to the principle that development is true when everyone develops together, fully implement the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, bring development issues back to the center of the international agenda, and build a global development partnership that is solid, equal, balanced and inclusive for all, so that no country or person will be left behind. Countries that are leading the way should genuinely help other countries develop and provide more global public goods. All major countries should take responsibility as major countries and contribute to the cause of global development. It is necessary to pay attention to the special needs of developing countries, support developing countries, especially vulnerable countries, which are particularly in great difficulty, through debt suspension and development assistance, and strive to solve the problem of unbalanced and insufficient development among and within countries.
Economic globalization should be inclusive, that is, to support all countries to embark on a development path suited to their own national conditions, and at the same time work together to promote the common development of all mankind. It is necessary to oppose all forms of unilateralism and protectionism, and resist discriminatory and exclusive standards and rules. It is necessary to promote the liberalization and facilitation of investment and investment, maintain the stability and smoothness of the global industrial chain, promote mutual understanding and mutual accommodation among all parties, take care of each other's interests and concerns, solve the structural problems that hinder the healthy development of the world economy, and maintain the vitality and momentum of global economic growth.
Out of hegemonic mentality, it is difficult for a certain country to accept that other countries are developing well, and they are bound to stumble at every turn. Facts have shown that the beggar-thy-neighbor approach to anti-globalization not only cannot solve its own chronic diseases, but also disrupts the global industrial chain, hinders the healthy development of the world economy, and causes damage to the interests of all countries. All countries in the world have the right to choose their own path of development, and no one has the right to and cannot stop the people of all countries from pursuing a better life. All countries in the world should abide by the concept of mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation, respect the objective law of the international industrial division of labor, reject the narrow policy of beggar-thy-neighbor and selfishness, abandon the one-sided approach of monopolizing the advantages of development, dismantle the high barriers of separation, investment and technology, and promote the construction of an open world economy. Only when all countries work together to tear down walls instead of building walls, open up instead of isolation, and integrate instead of decoupling can we create a better tomorrow for the world economy.
The history of the development of human society proves that no matter what kind of twists and turns it encounters, history always develops according to its own laws, and no force can stop the wheel of history. Looking forward to the future, economic globalization has always been the only way for human society to move forward and an irreversible trend of the times. The international community should join hands to promote economic globalization in a more open, inclusive, inclusive and balanced direction, and inject a steady stream of impetus into the building of a community with a shared future for mankind.