As soon as the sales volume came out in January 2024, the market changed as expected, with new energy vehicles rising slightly and fuel vehicles falling sharply. The reason for the sharp drop is easy to understand, after various brands and 4S stores have completed the sales task in 2023 in order to get higher incentives, the beginning of each year has always been an adjustment period.
The small rise in new energy is also very easy to understand, most of them are order-based, and the sales volume in January is more about how much is made and how much is delivered, and the orders won in December are digested. The sales data now reflects the current situation of the market There is a certain lag, and the new thing is that the young people's car consumption concept is also changing, there are not many reasons to buy a car, there are not many reasons to wait for delivery, the main focus is to wait for a new car.
As a result, the 5-year-old rule in the Internet has been fulfilled again, that is, people who are 5 years older than me have a generation gap, and people who are 5 years younger than me know too little.
This law will gradually fade with age, but its true colors will not change. 8 years ago, when the mobile Internet was just emerging, there was a hot stalk about cars, and a car owner in Heilongjiang was asked why he bought a Volkswagen, and the answer was "because Volkswagen is more advanced", which was made into an emoji by many people. And 8 years later, young people are also pursuing the so-called brand sense of luxury, such as the extremely popular Far Ahead, or Tesla.
However, where there is a majority, there is a minority. After Huawei, which is far ahead of the curve, empowers the automotive business, AITO Wenjie M7, Wenjie M9 and Zhijie S7 orders will grow explosively after September 2023, just like the Mate60 series. In order to retain orders, the official gave a subsidy policy of up to 10,000 yuan. It is the majority that is retained, and the number of refunds is now a minority, and among the minority, the first batch of young people who have given up Huawei-related cars has been released. Moreover, give up nothing about money.
At the end of January 2024, just when the Zhijie S7 encountered a delay in delivery, the news that only a few dozen units could be made every day spread. In fact, there were also a small number of the first batch of owners to get the car, at that time in Changzhou, Jiangsu, the number of single deliveries was about 30 units. Many people who ordered the Zhijie S7 also went to the scene to see how the production car they ordered performed after delivery. However, just a few days after the event, the number of unsubscribers in the group of riders increased, and they were all under the age of 35. Because after verifying the slogan with a real car, they found that it probably didn't mean that it was far ahead.
Li Yingfeng from Yancheng, Jiangsu, in December 2023, he placed an order for Zhijie S7, and the reason for almost no hesitation is that he is a senior pollen, and many mobile phones and tablets and many smart devices have chosen Huawei, and the budget for his own car replacement is between 25-300,000 yuan, which just matches Zhijie S7.
Like many contemporary young people, Li Yingfeng, who likes digital, also went to see several mainstream models that have been recognized by the public in terms of sales after ordering the Zhijie S7. You can see almost all of them in one visit to the mall, and there is almost no additional time cost.
However, the more you watch, the more difficult it is to choose. The list also includes Tesla's 3 and Y, Xpeng P7i Xpeng G6, AITO Wenjie M7, Geely Galaxy E8 Krypton 007, and relatively unpopular ones also include Nezha S, Leap C01, AVATR 12, and Lantu Chasing Light.
And,**Noisy,But the announcement has been left in suspense Xiaomi SU7,And the Volkswagen brand of Weilai's internal code name "Alps",More and the ideal L series is likely to update the 8295 chip in March,It may even push the ideal L6 within the price of 250,000 yuan,And so on。
Giving up and making choices is Li Yingfeng's main line, and there are not a few young people who have the same thoughts as him. The answer lies in the fact that even if disposable income has increased to a certain extent, after the previous few years, there is still no need to mention too many impulsive spending thoughts. If you buy right, you will lose less money, and if you buy wrong, you will lose a lot of money. In addition to the different appearances of new cars, the functionality, space, size, battery life, acceleration, etc. are similar, and even people who pay attention to safety can only listen to advertising and cannot make scientific and reasonable judgments.
After all, if it is really unsafe, car companies will not promise or even compensate for it, but endless rip-offs.
At the same time, the most popular ideas in the digital world continue to be fulfilled, and the party will eventually win. Smart cars that are more and more like smartphones, the myth of direct sales has been broken, and there is no car company that can stand up. Tesla's store has a subsidy of nearly 10,000 yuan, BYD recently gave a subsidy equivalent to more than 5,000 yuan before the Spring Festival, and Xpeng Motors' G9 and P7i are all in the official drop and the range of more than 30,000 yuan abounds. Ideal directly announced the opening of the 2023 model**, and the discount range of the store starts at 30,000 yuan. Far ahead, AITO M7 has a discount margin of 1More than 50,000 yuan.
A new word defined by the automobile, 532, 5 meters in length, 3 meters wheelbase, and a price of about 200,000 yuan, except for the BYD Han EV DM-i, which is about to be remodeled, has a discount of about 10,000 yuan, and there are almost no discounts for other models.
And a little understanding of the residual value of used cars, the sentiment of abandonment will increase further. The Tesla Model X, which landed more than 1.6 million yuan that year, is now priced at less than 400,000 yuan after less than 8 years of driving and a mileage of less than 70,000 kilometers. In other words, the average evaporation is 150,000 yuan per year, and this is not only a problem faced by top models. The ** of new cars directly affects the residual value of second-hand cars, Mercedes-Benz BMW now has a daily discount of 100,000 yuan or even more for new cars, and almost all new energy models are reducing prices, so the residual value of second-hand cars is hesitant.
In short, the current lack of interest in Tesla among young people has forced the Model 3 and Model Y to give several successive waves of preferential policies** in January this year, which is in line with the challenges faced by the industry as a whole. A high degree of product homogeneity, a high degree of proximity to the best performance, consumers who do not know enough about the car, it is difficult to judge, more according to brand awareness. However, those who know a little and study are slowly choosing to become a waiting party, lying flat to buy a car, and lying flat to consume.
Deep homogenization, in the range of 200,000-250,000 yuan, is inevitable:
The mainstream brand power battery is in the non-A that is, B, mainly in the CATL era, supplemented by BYD Fodi, China Innovation Airlines, etc., the CLTC range of pure electric models is more than 500 kilometers, and most of the cost-effective can actually be purchased at an upper limit of about 700 kilometers;
2.The display results of power motors and electronic controls are highly homogeneous. At the sedan layer, the single motor power of Model 3 is 264 horsepower, the single motor of Xiaopeng P7 is 267-276 horsepower, the later Zhijie S7 single motor is 292 horsepower (the price is relatively higher), Geely Galaxy E8 single motor is 272 horsepower, and at present, only Zeekrypton 007 has achieved a single motor of more than 400 horsepower, and ** within 300,000. The power of SUVs is also basically similar, Model Y single motor 299 horsepower, what Tesla does, what other car companies calibrate is almost how to do;
3.In terms of intelligent driving, it has almost formed a standard configuration, ZEEKR 007 has NZP, Xiaopeng has NGP, Geely Galaxy E8 has NOA, Tesla has AP, and Zhijie S7 has Huawei ADS20, BYD has di-pilot, AITO M7 has ADS2At present, most of the models above 200,000 yuan are equipped with highway intelligent driving, and a few are equipped with city-level intelligent driving. However, throughout 2024, mainstream models will almost complete the standard configuration, but the number of Kaesong will be different, which is why He Xiaopeng, Yu Chengdong, Li Xiang, and Li Bin are now crazy involutions.
The battery brand is almost the same, and even most of the battery models are the same, and most brands on the motor will carry out corresponding self-development, but most of them are transformations, and the foundation is the same, such as the motor on the ideal L series and Huawei DriveOne have a deep relationship. The configuration table is full of black dots, intelligent driving supports high speed, and continuous OTA optimization, and city-level intelligent driving is about to be completed in 2024.
As a result, all that remains is the difference in design, the difference in SKU (the price of Xpeng G9 was adjusted when it was first listed, just because the SKU was unreasonable), the seat belt does not have a queen's car, and the material in the car is different.
However, fortunately, there will be 2 more variables in 2024 that can make young people look forward to it a little. For example, NIO's Volkswagen model-Alps, and Xiaomi SU7, which has been mobilizing online sentiments.
With the spy photos**, based on the previous interview with Li Bin and the latest statement, the preliminary news of the NIO sub-brand has been clarified. It will be launched in the second half of 2024, with a high probability of the fourth quarter, and the pricing is expected to start at 20-250,000 yuan, and the vehicle will be positioned against the Model Y. In addition, according to Li Bin's answer in two interviews at the end of 2023, how to sell and how to build, while inheriting a series of core DNA of the NIO brand. Therefore, just looking at the spy photos of the appearance, the highlight of its model is probably that the space will be larger than that of the Model Y, the comfort will increase, and the ride will be in contrast with the Model Y.
The high-speed + urban NOA capability of intelligent driving will be, at least embedded. There will definitely be battery swaps, but it will definitely be the weight of NIO's parent brand with higher priority.
The basic information of Xiaomi Su7 has also been officially announced a long time ago,What is not determined at present is only**,And Lei Jun wants to send more about the user's backhand。 The speculation in the network is actually not particularly meaningful. Because the underlying logic is that Lei Jun has already said the concept of dream car, if the minimum sales system is more than 300,000 yuan, it will face a lot of unsubscriptions, and it will not be included in the purchase category of most ordinary consumers. Secondly, Xiaomi Su7 is actually trapped in a highly homogeneous bureau, but because the R&D project is further back, it is closer to the mainstream technology in the current market.
The 299 hp single motor is currently the best in the sedan segment, but the competitive advantage is not the power data, but the 21,000rpm acceleration texture is expected to be slightly better than the existing mainstream, and the energy consumption is expected to be slightly lower. However, it is difficult to open a clear contrast between the leading margins of these two advantages. Intelligent cockpit Intelligent driving, at present, is the most important attributes.
It can be simply concluded that it is not difficult to sell new energy vehicles with a price of 20-250,000 yuan in China in 2024, but it is difficult to sell well. Under rational consumption, it is another round of foreseeable new war trend.
In fact, not only consumers are numb, but car companies are also chaotic. So now it is still showing a new contrast, the most shallowest volume **, the selection of configuration, volume intelligence, this primary stage has basically peaked. It became, roll Kaejo, volume OTA frequency, and the most popular volume delivery in front of you.
Everything is basically in line with the development path of smartphones. After placing an order, whether it is ** or spot, and whether there can be one or several points that make people consume impulsively under a high degree of homogeneity. For example, BYD's fame can support the consumption and circulation speed of its new cars and even second-hand cars, such as Huawei's far ahead can indeed stimulate many people to place orders impulsively, and then Wei Xiaoli or whoever has their own halo.
And there is no answer to the volume, whether it is up or down. The Mona spy photos of Xiaopeng and Didi have come out, and they will definitely be available this year, and 150,000 can have high-end assisted driving; The outline of Huawei and the Four Realms is also becoming clearer and clearer, but Huawei, which is worth millions of yuan, still has to put a question mark. There is also Xiaomi, which is often sprayed, and a number of traditional enterprises that are already in transformation.
Among them, there is no answer to whether it will be a good choice to consume lying flat. But the answer is that impulse spending is slowly being replaced.