On January 29, BYD released its 2023 annual performance forecast. BYD expects that in 2023, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 29 billion yuan - 31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7446%—86.49%；The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 27.4 billion yuan to 29.7 billion yuan, an increase of 75% over the same period last year22%—89.92%；Basic earnings per share were 9$98 shares to $1067 yuan shares, compared with 5 in the same period last year$71 shares.
Where is the growth point of 2023 performance?
BYD said that although the competition in the automotive industry will be more fierce in 2023, BYD has shown strong resilience by virtue of the continuous improvement of brand power, the rapid growth of overseas sales, the continuous expansion of scale advantages and the strong cost control ability of the industrial chain.
In terms of mobile phone parts and assembly business, benefiting from the increase in the business share of overseas key customers, the recovery of Android customer demand, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles and new smart products, the capacity utilization rate increased significantly, the business structure was further optimized, the profitability was significantly improved, and the profit achieved substantial growth.
Scale advantage and cost control are the main reasons for BYD's rising profits.
In 2023, the new energy vehicle industry will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend, and BYD's sales will hit a record high, with annual sales of 3024417 units, a year-on-year increase of 619%, exceeding the target of 3 million units set at the beginning of the year, with a rapid growth momentum, further consolidating the leading position of the world's first new energy vehicle sales.
Judging from the known data, due to the "** war" in 2023, BYD's bicycles are under pressure, and the company's bicycles have decreased by 1 in the first three quarters70,000 units. However, thanks to the significant increase in sales, BYD's depreciation and amortization have been further diluted, and the vertical integration layout of the first chain has led to a downward cost, and the cost of a single vehicle has decreased by 210,000 units.
Therefore, with the continuous expansion of BYD's production and sales scale, its depreciation, amortization and cost reduction will be larger, and it is expected to achieve greater profitability. The performance of scale effect will be the key to BYD's future net profit jump.
It should be noted that despite BYD's outstanding performance in 2023, it is "under great pressure" in the capital market. In 2023, BYD's share price fell by about 23% for the whole year, and on the second day of the release of the 2023 performance forecast (January 30, 2024), the stock price fell again, with A-shares falling by more than 3% and Hong Kong stocks falling by more than 5%.
There is **Calling BYD investors as investors**, the staff said that industry demand will indeed be a little weak in January, followed by the Spring Festival holiday in February, which is also the off-season for sales, which will definitely be slightly worse than the end of 2023. However, in terms of the horizontal comparison of the whole industry, BYD's leading trend remains unchanged.
High growth is expected to continue in 2024
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that in 2024, China's total auto sales will exceed 31 million units, a year-on-year increase of more than 3%. Among them, passenger car sales were 26.8 million units, an increase of 3% year-on-year; Commercial vehicle sales were 4.2 million units, up 4% year-on-year. New energy vehicle sales were 11.5 million units, and exports were 5.5 million units.
As a leader in China's automobiles, BYD is expected to achieve further growth in sales and performance thanks to the expansion of market capacity and the Matthew effect.
First, the total sales volume will go to the next level. BYD's product matrix is rich and diverse, with BYD (Dynasty + Ocean), Denza, Yangwang, and Equation Leopard covering all first-class intervals and user groups, and power types covering pure electric and plug-in hybrid.
SDIC ** pointed out that in 2023, BYD will rank first in sales of 10-150,000 and 15-200,000**, with a market share of 116% and 204%, the advantage is very obvious, and has formed an obvious brand potential energy with more sales, and has achieved a high level of profitability through scale advantages.
In 2024, there will be new cars on the market of BYD Dynasty and Ocean Network, such as Qin L, which has been announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and Yuan UP, which has officially released the appearance, both of which are expected to achieve breakthroughs in the 10-200,000 ** band; The Hiace 07 EV is the first pure electric mid-size SUV under Ocean Net, and it is also the BYD E platform 30 of the advanced. In addition, the DM model is expected to be upgraded to achieve lower fuel consumption and cost. BYD's total sales are expected to continue to increase.
In addition, in the past three years, BYD's overall capacity utilization rate has continued to improve, and it will be overloaded in 2022. In the second half of 2021, BYD began a large-scale expansion of production; In the second half of 2022, BYD's fixed assets will basically double, and the scale of projects under construction will reach 45.4 billion, indicating that the new production capacity will be greatly increased in 2024, and the past insufficient production capacity and limited sales will be greatly eased.
Second, high-end continues to break through. In 2023, the DENZA brand has achieved initial success, with annual sales of 127,840 units; Both Yangwang and Equation Leopard will officially start delivery in November 2023, and the market feedback is good. BYD's various high-end brands have a clear positioning, and the upward layout of the brand has been basically completed.
It is understood that in 2024, DENZA will have dual flagship sedans on the market, and the brand product line will become more and more perfect; Formula Leopard will have two models, Leopard 3 and Leopard 8, helping the brand to make breakthroughs in the new energy off-road market; Looking up to the U9 and looking up to the U7 will form a joint force with the looking up to the U8 to jointly impact the million-level luxury car market.
Third, the pace of going to sea has accelerated. In 2023, BYD will export 242765 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 3342%。BYD said that in the future, more models will go overseas to contribute to the overseas expansion of Chinese automobiles.
In January this year, BYD's overseas actions were frequent. BYD "explorer no.1. The delivery and maiden voyage ceremonies of the automobile transport ro-ro ships were held in Yantai Port of Shandong Port and Shenshan Xiaomo International Logistics Port; Song Plus DM-i listed in Mexico; Three all-electric models debuted in the Indonesian passenger car market; The production of new energy vehicles in the Uzbekistan factory was officially launched; Yuan PLUS (known as BYD ATTO 3 overseas) was listed in Rwanda ......
BYD's profitability is also expected to be further strengthened due to the generally good profitability of high-end models and export models.
It is foreseeable that in 2024, the legend of "Di Wang" will continue.