It is said that the GEM fell below 1600 points, which is too miserable, from the highest point **55%, but compared with the decline of the registered sub-IPO index, it is simply a bull market. The registered sub-IPO index fell by 83% from the highest point, this is an index, not **, there are more than 200 constituent stocks in this index, which can fall by 83%, how tragic it must be!
Founded on August 25, 2020, the highest point on the first day of launch was 1,280 points, and since then it has entered a long "bear" road, and at the end of 2020, the index fell to 591 points; In 2021, it will be **23% again, and the index will fall to 455 points; In 2022, it continued to **36%, with the index falling to 290 points; In 2023, the decline will be the smallest, only 4%, and the index will fall to 277 points, and it has fallen by nearly 20% before January this year, and the index has fallen to 223 points, from the highest point at the beginning of its establishment, 83%, and today it is 4 in a single day7%。
What does the registration-based sub-IPO index**83% mean? It shows that the sub-new shares issued by the registration system are the most miserable, and they have fallen the hardest in the past 3 years, which can be described as the most bearish index in A-shares, but why are these ** falling the hardest?
The fundamental reason is that the price-earnings ratio of the issuance is too high, and the performance in the later stage cannot keep up at all, there are 190 registration-based issuance and listing in 2020, and the median initial price-earnings ratio is 40 times, and the listing day or a few days ago will often be speculated again, and the stock price will be speculated to two or three times the issue price, so the stock price is often two or three times the initial price-earnings ratio when it is the highest, which is going to be one or two hundred times the valuation.
With such a high valuation, there will definitely be a deep lock-up of a batch of funds, and there is no capital to dare to go to **, because the hedging plate is too big, look at each new stock, the trading volume is very large when it is first listed, and most of the **behind**will** go down and fall into a long bear market.
Why is the issue price so high? There are two reasons, the first is that intermediaries and enterprises have the motivation to issue, the higher the issuance, the more corporate financing, and the more intermediary fees and commissions the intermediary gets; The second is the restricted sale system, for example, there are 75 shares at the beginning, 25 shares are issued in the IPO, 75 shares are restricted, the major shareholders are generally 36 months, and the other shareholders are generally 12 months, so there are only 25 shares in circulation.
What is the effect of this? That is, it seems that the market value of the enterprise is very large, but the actual circulation is not much, especially for those who are not big in the intraday, the circulating market value at the beginning is more than one billion, and it is easy to be hyped up, and a few hundred million funds can be turned upside down.
For the funds that received the order at the initial high point (mainly**) once it fell by more than one-third, it was difficult to cut the meat, and after falling to 50%, it was directly pretended to be dead, and for the original shareholders, even if the ban was lifted after a year, although it had fallen a lot, it was generally significantly higher than the issue price, so at that time** was still very profitable. Even if the ban is lifted after 3 years, the stock price will generally be around the issue price because the performance will always increase a little in three years.
Taking 2020 as an example, there were 432 **IPOs listed that year, but until today, only 142** fell below the issue price, accounting for only 33%, which means that two-thirds of the ** are still above the issue price.
That's why it will be issued, and then hype, because in this way the value can be maximized for the original shareholders and major shareholders, when the person who takes over falls by one-third to one-half, he basically pretends to be dead, this is human nature, the vast majority of people can't overcome it, at that time you know that there is no hope, but you just can't get out.
I have a bad premonition, to put it mildly, there are too many A-shares, so the high-valuation issue price is still rushing to subscribe, if there is no cooperation of the first, the issuance can not be completed, you can't say that this is not market-based pricing, after all, it is also one of the participants, and there are two more **listed in the past two days, and the initial price-earnings ratio is 29 times.
Take a new stock that has just been listed today as an example, Beizi Technology has just been listed on the main board of Shanghai today, the issue price is 21 yuan shares, and the issue price-earnings ratio is 28 times, but the winning rate is only 004%, which means that it needs to be snapped up, just such a valuation, there are still hundreds of times subscribed, what does it mean? It shows that there is still a market for high-premium issuance, and ** itself is one of the forces participating in pricing. From the perspective of fundraising, it is expected that the fundraising will be 6500 million, while the actual fundraising is as high as 86.3 billion, which is exactly 2100 million yuan, more than 33% of the original plan to raise funds.
You have to say that this market is not good, new shares have to rely on grabbing, funds can also be overraised, you have to say that this market is good, the index has fallen for 3 years, and then look at the ** fluctuations after the issuance, the opening price is 46 yuan, which is more than 2 times the issue price, and the highest intraday rush to 558 yuan, nearly 3 times the issue price, the valuation at this time must not run to 100 times, and the last *** is 46For 4 yuan shares, the rolling P/E ratio is 47 times, while the industry P/E ratio is only 26 times.
Is this market good or bad? It can only be said that what kind of soil blooms what kind of flowers, and you can't blame the major shareholders and intermediaries.
If the country does not introduce a strong policy, this time in the context of the registration system, it will take off a layer of skin, which can be regarded as a kind of investor education.
Isn't there a saying that says? People cannot be persuaded, they can only be educated by reality.
The ** mentioned here also includes myself, and there is no way to overcome the weakness of human nature, if you don't go when you should go, you are anchored, fifty steps and a hundred steps of laughter.
There used to be a lot of ** in U.S. stocks, but in the end there were none, how did they not have them? I broke out in a cold sweat when I thought of this, but fortunately, I was very low.