On February 16, the Russian military launched dumpling-like tactics, and the defensive situation in Avadiivka has reached a critical moment, and if it is lost, it will mean that Avadiivka will be occupied by the Russian army.
At the moment, the Russian army has a clear advantage in terms of personnel and equipment. Despite the mistakes at the beginning, huge losses, and unrealistic expectations, the Russian army is still replenishing new recruits and equipment, and continues to put pressure on the Ukrainian army, which is also a severe test for the new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Syrsky, whether he can accept the "gift" of the Russian army, it seems that it is no longer up to him.
The strategic importance of Avadiivka is primarily reflected in its threat to the Donetsk regional capital. Since it is located only 12 kilometers from the city of Donetsk, the threat to Donetsk from this forward position is self-evident.
After the Russian army seized Maryinka, the capture of Avadiivka became an inevitable strategic move. In addition, in order to ensure the security of the city of Donetsk, the Russian army will inevitably continue to advance towards the west. As long as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, it is possible that the Russian army will further occupy the entire Donetsk region.
Judging by the recent performance of the Russian army, it seems that the Russian army has behaved more aggressively after the change of commander of the Ukrainian army. Their offensive in the Donbass region is gaining extraordinary momentum. It is worth noting that Syrsky once commanded the Kharkov ** battle, which is the best means of retaliation for the Russian army.
So, will the Ukrainian army abandon Avadiivka?
Regardless of the resistance of the Ukrainian army, the Russian army will occupy Avadiivka and will do whatever it takes.
First, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict approaches its third year, Putin needs a major victory to boost the morale of the Russian army and demonstrate his strength to the international community, especially the West. Western support for Ukraine over the past two years has not led to a victory for the Ukrainian army, but for the Russian army to occupy more territory.
At present, the US Senate has agreed to provide $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, while the European Union is also closely preparing to provide 40 billion euros in aid. If Europe and the United States finally agree to provide this assistance to Ukraine, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will usher in its third year, and there may be a brief escalation of the conflict.
After all, Russia wants to put pressure on the West, while Ukraine wants to show its will and strength to its supporters.
It seems that all parties to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are demonstrating their will to the West? Isn't that exactly what happened? Isn't Russia's offensive against Ukraine an attempt to show strength to the West?
And isn't Ukraine's counterattack a demonstration of its ability to resist to the West? The peculiarity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is precisely this, the beaten side does not know why, and the beaten side does not seem to have a clear goal of its own.
The second point is that the current Ukrainian army lacks strong logistical support, and it is not wise to engage in a large-scale confrontation with the Russian army in Avadiivka. Therefore, abandoning Avadiivka and defending the next city in turn is the wisest option for the Ukrainian army, which is also a tactic that they are good at.
The confrontation with the Russian army lacks sufficient force and fire support, and Russia can rely on air combat and long-range strikes even in difficult situations**. The Ukrainian army's logistical supply lines could be attacked at any time, while the Russian army is relatively well positioned.
Avadiivka is not a turning point in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, its importance is relatively low, at least from the overall situation of the war, it is only a buffer zone that will increase the depth of the rear defense of the Russian army. As for large-scale battles in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it is already unlikely. Because the operational front of the Russian army is very long, and the situation of the Ukrainian army is similar, it is impossible for both sides to concentrate their forces at one point for a decisive battle, which is different from the traditional "decisive battle".
The third point is that Ukraine will carry out ** propaganda in Avadiivka, because this is a critical moment to get assistance from the West. If Ukraine can hold on to Avadiivka until it receives new aid, it will make the West feel that it can wait and see if it provides aid for a while. Therefore, after several rounds of resistance, the Ukrainian authorities may choose to abandon Avadiivka in exchange for sympathy and support from the West.
In Ukrainian propaganda about the war, it is often emphasized that they are "fighting for the West", claiming to defend so-called European values. However, this begs the question: what are Ukraine's own values?
In contrast, Russia's attitude is relatively easy to understand. Russia does not want to see Ukraine close to the West, because this is tantamount to a provocation against Russia.
The relationship between Ukraine and Russia is complex and sensitive, and on the surface, Ukraine seems to have the right to determine its own path, while Russia believes that it has no right to interfere in Ukraine's internal affairs. However, there are complex issues of historical, geopolitical and economic interests involved.
Therefore, even if Russia does its best to impoverish Ukraine, it will not allow it to join NATO. While Russia has not openly blocked Ukraine's accession to the European Union, they will not welcome Ukraine into the Western camp either.
In general, the EU is unlikely to admit Ukraine at war. Although Ukraine is barely holding on at the moment, it is in a very difficult situation. Once Ukraine's "** chain" collapses, the object that can take over Ukraine may still be Russia.
Therefore, the most sensible strategy for the West to take against Russia may be to resolve it through peace talks. In the current situation, Ukraine simply cannot continue to compete with Russia, and it is difficult for the West to withstand this attrition for a long time, otherwise it may eventually lead to the loss of Ukraine.
To sum up, there seem to be only two possibilities for the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. One is for Russia and the West to reach a compromise that will allow Ukraine to survive. The other is that Ukraine will submit to Russia, and the West will not allow Ukraine to survive.
Therefore, emotionally and tactically, Ukraine is doing the right thing. However, Ukraine may not yet be aware of the dilemma in the country's future.