In 2023, both softwood pulp and hardwood pulp showed a downward trend. As of December 31, 2023, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan, a decrease of 20 compared with the average price of 7,340 yuan tons on January 13%。On December 31, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong was 5,040 yuan tons, down 21 percent from the average price of 6,446 yuan tons on January 181%。
In 2023, the spot market of imported wood pulp will show a trend of strong decline and weak rise, which is mostly affected by the operation of pulp contracts, coupled with the continuous increase, although the demand has increased, the overall recovery is not as expected. The highest point of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp appeared in January, 7420 yuan ton and 6446 yuan ton, respectively, and the low point appeared in early May, 5224 yuan ton and 4000 yuan ton, respectively, a decrease of 296% and 3795%。
The first round (1-6): Wood pulp ushered in a cliff type, followed by finishing, and softwood pulp fell by 2807%, hardwood pulp ** fell by 3469%。
At the beginning of 2023, wood pulp ** showed a weak downward trend, with a downward adjustment in January, and a month-on-month increase in imports, while downstream paper mills were affected by public health events and the Spring Festival holiday, and the market operating rate was relatively low, so in a state of strong supply and weak demand, wood pulp ** began to fall lower. From February to April, the decline in wood pulp continued to expand, due to the economic recession in the overseas market, most of the pulp flowed to the domestic market, and the inventory of domestic ports continued to accumulate, and the high inventory affected the wood pulp market. The downstream market in the mood of buying up and not buying down, the enthusiasm for the purchase of wood pulp raw materials is not good, and the market pessimism is heavier in the state of lack of confidence in the futures market, resulting in a fall and a fall.
From May to June, the spot price of wood pulp was mixed, and the spot price of softwood pulp was adjusted along with the market, and the hardwood pulp spot was driven by the upward trend of the hardwood pulp. The US dollar continues to strengthen, forming a certain support for the cost side, the arrival of the e-commerce festival in June, household paper shipments have improved, and under the supply and demand game, the center of gravity of hardwood pulp has moved upward. Subsequently, the shipment volume of imported wood pulp increased, which increased the pressure, coupled with the obvious loosening of cultural paper and white cardboard in local areas, which restricts the wood pulp, and the downstream market has shown a decline in terms of start-up, so the demand for wood pulp has decreased, making the wood pulp ** downward again.
The second round ** (July-December): wood pulp ** rose first and then fell, and softwood pulp ** rose by 108%, hardwood pulp ** rose by 1971%。
Since July, wood pulp has begun to rise, the international market has been disturbed by the news, the Canadian market strike has highlighted the tense atmosphere, and the domestic mainstream port inventory continues to show a trend of destocking, and the wood pulp outer disk is also continuous, so it has played a certain role in supporting the upward movement of wood pulp. In the atmosphere of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", wood pulp continues to rise, the downstream has entered the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day double festival stocking state, market orders have been released, consumption heat and procurement enthusiasm have risen, making the wood pulp increase in the first half of the year, and the second half of the year will usher in the high point in mid-October.
In late October, wood pulp rose and fell, international wood pulp gradually stabilized, domestic port inventories accumulated, merchant shipments slowed down, wood pulp was difficult, and pulp fell sharply, driving the wood pulp spot downward. In November, wood pulp continued to fall after a short period of small demand, and with the gradual weakening of downstream demand, it had an impact on the transaction of the wood pulp spot market. The enthusiasm of downstream paper mills has declined, the market is basically in a state of rigid demand for purchases, and there are preferential concessions in local transactions. Until the end of the year, more than the range *** trend.
What will be the trend of wood pulp in 2024
In terms of production capacity, production:From 2019 to 2023, the output of domestic wood pulp will show an overall growth trend, and the output will be mostly affected by the integration process of domestic forestry, pulp and paper. China's wood pulp production in 2023 is expected to be 2691620,000 tons, continuing the high level in 2022. Different from imported wood pulp, domestic wood pulp is more for the factory's own use, the amount of circulation in the market is relatively limited, when the market circulation of imported wood pulp ** deviates from the normal level, there will be a small amount of domestic wood pulp into the market for adjustment. According to incomplete statistics, the new domestic wood pulp production capacity will still expand to more than 800 tons in 2024, which will bring the highest pressure and may not be conducive to the high operation of pulp prices.
Imports:In 2023, the total amount of pulp in China will be 5667740,000 tons, an increase of 11 year-on-year87%, while China's wood pulp imports are the main increase**. From January to December 2023, the domestic pulp import volume will be about 36.66 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 257%。In 2024, incomplete statistics will show that the new international wood pulp production capacity will be 2.71 million tons, mainly distributed in South America and Europe, and the shipping destination of pulp mills is mainly the Chinese market, and the zero-tariff policy for China's wood pulp imports has not been adjusted, so it is expected that the domestic wood pulp import volume will continue to grow in 2024. The phased changes in the import volume of wood pulp or the changes in the main pulp contract will affect the short-term fluctuations in the domestic imported wood pulp spot market.
On the demand side:In 2023, the increase in the demand for wood pulp market will be slow, and it will be difficult to effectively support the high-level operation of wood pulp. In 2023, China's total pulp demand will be 5206500,000 tons, an increase of 6 percent year-on-year74%, the downstream base paper has contributed to the increase in pulp demand, and the increase in demand is mainly concentrated in double-offset paper and household paper, which is related to factors such as more new production capacity and pulp consumption. In 2024, the new production capacity of downstream base paper is planned to be close to 4 million tons, which is conducive to the growth of pulp consumption. However, due to the fact that the demand growth rate is lower than the first growth rate, the imbalance between supply and demand in the pulp market is still obvious, so the support for pulp prices may be weakened.
On the whole, in 2024, there will still be new production capacity released in the global wood pulp, so the market will still maintain a sufficient situation, and the acceleration of the domestic pulp and paper integration process is expected to reduce the dependence on foreign countries, which will bring certain pressure to the external plate of imported wood pulp, and then weaken the spot support. The pulp fluctuation has a more obvious impact on the mentality of the spot market, the linkage of the futures and spot markets is strong, and the fluctuations in the short cycle affect the mentality of the spot market, and the changes in the mentality of the spot market have an impact on the market. In 2024, if the maintenance of foreign pulp mills and changes in the shipping situation bring about changes in sea freight and shipping supply and demand patterns will also be the influencing factors of the domestic market mentality, in the current pulp supply and demand are showing a positive growth trend, it is expected that the market supply and demand will continue to play in the first quarter, and the grid will maintain the range.