Sword Plan Singapore's roving ambassador and former ambassador to the United States, Chen Qingzhu, recently made the latest judgment on the international situation and Sino-US relations in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao: Sino-US relations in 2024 are "tactical stability", and the United States will not start from Taiwan to contain Chinese mainland, but from the field of science and technology; "2024 will be an unstable and volatile year", and the Russia-Ukraine war may drag on for a longer time; The world is evolving in the direction of "asymmetric multipolarity", but the United States is still the "highest pole" and China is the other pole.
Chen Qingzhu's main points are as follows:
First, the United States will not start from Taiwan to contain Chinese mainland.
Chen Qingzhu, who has been stationed in the United States for 16 years and has a deep understanding of the United States, judged that if the United States seeks to slow down or block China's rise, it will start in the field of science and technology and will not choose Taiwan. "The U.S. attitude toward technology is 'it's ours,' and advanced technology is seen as the key to the economic and military race," she said. She reminded that even Japan, an ally of the United States, has been treated in the same way when it is seen as a competitor by the United States.
By contrast, it is not in the interest of the United States to create instability in the Taiwan Strait. Chen Qingzhu said that from the fact that the United States has been careful to avoid sending troops to Ukraine and the Middle East, and only providing **, it can be seen that the Americans do not seek another war, and they do not want to see the blood of the Americans shed in vain.
2. China-US relations will be "tactically stable" in 2024
Chen Qingzhu used "tactical stability" to describe the current Sino-US relationship, Biden, who needs to run for re-election, does not want Sino-US relations to be unstable, and China needs to focus on finding solutions to domestic economic problems. But she also warned that Biden**'s restrictions on technology exports to China will not stop, and more Chinese companies and individuals will be included in the sanctioned "entity list".
If Trump wins, Chen Qingzhu judged that Trump is very concerned about the imbalance between China and the United States, and he will force China to make concessions. The U.S.-China rivalry will continue to deepen over a long period of time, Trump 20 doesn't change that. But if Trump takes office, he is expected to focus more on domestic affairs. "Trump isn't very good," she said. We can't ** what he will do. ”
3. "2024 will be an unstable and volatile year. ”
Chen Qingzhu believes that the problem facing the world is the "inadmissibility" of the actual result
Chen Qingzhu described that the war in Ukraine has unfortunately degenerated into a war of attrition, Western countries are tired of aiding Ukraine, and the United States has shifted its attention to the Middle East, and Ukraine is feeling anxious. "The question now is who will not be able to hold out before negotiations are possible, and both sides will seek to negotiate at the most favorable time for their own situation. She said that it is difficult to ** when the war in Ukraine will be suspended, and the future war may drag on for longer and longer.
In addition, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has spilled over into many countries, and Chen Qingzhu pointed out that the conflict in the Middle East has the potential to trigger a rise in terrorist activities in other parts of the world.
Fourth, the world is evolving in an asymmetrical and multipolar direction.
Chen Qingzhu believes that the future world will not be unipolar, nor will it be only bipolar, but multipolar; The structure will be fragmented, the heights of the poles will be asymmetrical, and the United States will remain the highest pole because the United States is militarily superior to other countries, and the economy is very strong, its allies are expanding, its technology is still leading, and it is still attracting talent.
But the United States is not the only pole, China is the other, India is catching up, and the European Union does not want to be ignored despite economic difficulties. The BRICS countries are on the rise, and the Middle East is making an effective, loud and influential voice.