We are living through a new era of war, and it concerns each and every one of us!
The global economy faces three main systemic risks: the United States**, Chinese real estate, and European debt. A crisis outbreak in either direction could get the other two through it safely!
It is much safer for China's big A market not to rise than to rise. In this way, it will not be out of the real to the virtual, Europe and the United States are up to the risk, and if there is friction in the future, we can go down to 3000 points?
In an interview on February 4, Powell re-emphasized that "a rate cut in March is unlikely." If we see a weak labor market, or if inflation is indeed convincingly declining, then we act as quickly as possible. This means that the interest cost of U.S. Treasury bonds will continue to explode, and the U.S. Treasury will have to continue to issue more U.S. Treasury bonds to borrow new to pay off old ones.
This was followed by signals from Japan that it would raise interest rates in April. The tightening of monetary policy by these two of the world's largest "cheap money providers"!
The only purpose is to drain the liquidity of China's offshore market, thereby affecting China's domestic consumer demand, thereby detonating China's real estate market and local urban investment bonds on a large scale, which are closely linked to China's banking system, and if there is a problem, it will inevitably lead to systemic risks in the economy. In the end, the dollar cut interest rates and released water and began to harvest China.
In order to ensure the stability of the RMB exchange rate, it is not possible to release water on a large scale! Thus further influencing our manufacturing industry!
Foreign investors in the manufacturing sector are faced with a shortage of orders and may choose to withdraw or significantly reduce their investment. On the other hand, domestic.
The huge production capacity will inevitably face the problem of survival under the double blow of lack of overseas orders and suppressed domestic demand.
Under the combined effect of these forces, China's manufacturing industry has been suppressed in an all-round way! That's the scariest thing!
The strength of China's manufacturing industry is also the most feared by the United States, and it is currently the most solid pillar of China's economy. Now that everyone has seen this risk, then this risk is not so terrible, and there will definitely be masters to solve this problem!
Because as long as the world's largest manufacturing capacity is there, your economic logic is illusory in the face of the steel torrent!
Now they feel that they have found an opportunity to take advantage of the bear-like trend of the big A to pour in from abroad and sing about it, and as more and more voices join the argument, China's internal confidence and expectations have also been severely hit. So we have to be extra careful every step we take now.
Of course, don't feel sad that we are better, the US is doing better, the US dollar has not been able to raise interest rates, and as of January 2024, the US national debt has reached a staggering $34 trillion and is still rising. Interest on government bonds and maturing debt have become a major financial burden. Faced with this situation, the Fed has already had to begin secretly providing liquidity support to US banks that have purchased large amounts of Treasuries through a targeted funding program.
Do you think he dares to fall in US stocks? He also wants to go to the bubble and go to the fire, but if this thing is accidentally burned by the joint venture, the United States may be even more difficult than us!
From our current point of view, although there is pressure, it is far from unbearable, and it is obvious that Big A is still in control! There is a high probability that the sharp ** you want will not, how can you create your own bubble and give your opponent a chance?
What we need is patience and wait for some possible turning point, such as the black swans in the Middle East, don't you see they have been forced to end lately? If another shelling aircraft carrier comes back, it may be able to directly shake the foundation of the hegemony of the dollar! Or is there civil strife in the United States, partisanship has intensified, and Texas has recently gone to the fore? Then the United States will cut interest rates on its own initiative, seek cooperation with China to deal with the economic crisis, or in order to reach some kind of consensus, the United States is willing to make concessions and agree to an orderly reduction in the value of the dollar. And that's it!
So as to tide over the storm and survive this global economic crisis.