After the end of the year, the price of grain and pigs also fell.
Although the pig price is expected, the pig price is not so simple.
Everybody knows,After the year is the off-season for pork consumption, and it is also the time when pig prices weaken every year, and the pig production capacity is still huge, so the ** after the year is also expected.
But in the new farmer ** come,The risks of the pig market are not so, or rather, the risks of the pig market have not passed, but have shifted.
From the previous competition between enterprises to a new round of competition between enterprises.
As we all know, this round of pig cycle grinding time is longer, on the one hand, affected by the epidemic, the decline in consumption is more severe, but on the other hand,The pig market has also undergone relatively large changes.
We've said it before,The pattern of the pig market has changed, and the pig market may have to go through at least two rounds of reshuffle before it is expected to officially come out of the haze cycle.
The first round is the elimination of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the breeding end is further concentrated in large enterprises.
It can be said that in the first two years, pig prices continued to grind to the bottom, small and medium-sized enterprises were constantly eliminated because of poor comprehensive competitiveness, and the pig market has undergone great changes, while large enterprises have taken the opportunity to expand their market share.
Therefore, in the first two years, although the production capacity of pigs has been declining, the main decline is the production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises, while the production capacity of large enterprises has not changed much, or ratherLarge companies have only eliminated some low-yielding sows, while those who remain are high-yielding sows, which has led to an important change in the production structure.
After two or three years of grinding, small and medium-sized ** has been eliminated, and as production capacity gradually returns to normal, the market has new expectations for the "inflection point" of pig prices in 2024.
But the new agricultural concept believes thatFar from that simple. Because after the end of the first round of reshuffle, the hog market will enter the second round of reshuffle.
The second round of reshuffle is the process of major companies constantly seizing market share, and this round of reshuffle is also painful.
First of all, on the surface, companies are controlling costs, but on the other hand,The pace of expansion has never stopped.
Because everyone knows that whoever gives in at this time is equivalent to giving up the market share to others, so it can be said that the desire to increase production has never decreased.
Previously, Muyuan and Wen's two major pig companies have also announced,In 2024, the normal growth of pig slaughter is about 10%, and roughly calculated, the number of pigs slaughtered by these two major companies in 2024 will exceed 100 million.
This is only two companies, and it will not be only these two companies that will maintain normal slaughter growth, so the number of pigs slaughtered in 2024 is still huge, and the pressure is still not small.
Second, the increase in consumption is still limited.
In fact, this has been confirmed by the market many times, for example, in the whole year of last year, consumption was less than expectedThis is not only related to the macro economy, but also to consumption habits, and this is not a problem that can be solved in the short term, so the weakness in consumption will continue at least this year.
Another example is this year's Spring Festival, although the Spring Festival finally lived up to expectations and drove pig prices. However, judging from the increase, the average price of live pigs has not exceeded 8 yuan.
As soon as the fifth day of the Lunar New Year ended, I couldn't stand it anymore, and my fatigue was exhausted, which also showed that the consumption momentum was limited, and the support for pig prices was also limited.
So,In 2024, the hog market will still be a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It's just that this time the competition has escalated, mainly manifested in the run competition between the leading enterprises.
And this kind of competition is also fierceBecause the market changes, capital will inevitably be the first to smell, and the competition of capital will be more fierce. If someone wants to expand, then there will inevitably be someone who can't afford to be acquired or reorganized, and eventually the assets and resources will be redistributed to form a new balance.
Only in this way can the pig market be expected to truly get out of the haze and start a new cycle of fluctuations.
Therefore, the pig market in 2024 will still not be calm, there will be no fewer pits, and we must still be vigilant and not be carried away by the "inflection point".
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