Reading guide:After all, it is still a state of great divergence,Want to rush up,Is there an absolute buying push,Fortunately, the cash demand in the past two days is beginning to decrease,In fact,The state of these two days is extremely similar,**With support,and**accompanied by resistance,So,The low operation divergence is very large,The weakening of cash demand has not quickly turned into buying,Yes,The structural state seems to be beginning to show cards。
Several major indices continued to follow the trend of a low doji, bottoming out ** after ** falling, the weak state has not fundamentally changed, the absolute amount of funds has shrunk, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 054%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 074%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 055%, GEM fell 043%, this pattern of ** at least out of the previous unilateral **, CNI 2000 fell 099%, interestingly, mid-cap growth bucks the trend**.
On the time-sharing chart, the Shanghai Composite Index opened low and went low, but there was no process ** now intensive selling pressure, 9After 44 points, it quickly ** and turned red, and then around the top of the red line**, 10After 46 points, it entered a unilateral downward trend, and the overall low ** in the afternoon, and there was no acceleration ** trend, and the large, medium and small performance was relatively consistent, note, 10The long-short game after 46 points objectively exists, and the selling pressure in the last 20 minutes of the end is relatively intensive.
The state of the index is generally resonant, but the GEM is obviously slightly stronger, and interestingly, the GEM bottoms out faster, and ** In other words, the attitude of funds towards the GEM is actually more active than that of the Shanghai Index, but there is more demand for cashing after the rise, so it is still caused by lack of confidence, and the funds have not reached the time node of unilateral strengthening, but we believe that the space is almost over, but the time has not come, so the second half of the week is quite critical.
With two consecutive days of low dojis, it is clear what the market is waiting forIt may be the data that will be released soon, it may be the situation at home and abroad, and it may be something else, but in the end, at this point in time, if it is not hopeful, there is no low doji trend, so this emotional waiting has brought about the pause of the trend, so we might as well wait.
Industry or structure, in fact, very much in line with expectations, in recent words, "high cut low" has been formed, note, this is not a question of whether you turn, but you do not turn, do not affect the context that has been formed, for the current market, last year's elasticity can be called "low win rate high odds", and now, with the beginning of "high cut low", capital preferences have shifted to "high win rate high odds", in fact, it is last year to lead the decline of several industries.
The structure is different every year, not to the will of people for the transfer, and it is not easy for you to turn into a transfer, beauty care, trade and retail, power equipment, food and beverage, these four industries**, in our opinion, the subdivision industry here, may only be liquor is not a "high odds", or even "low" to describe, but this thing is called faith, so unless it is an extreme situation, it is too difficult to pick up a bargain ......
Reflected in the concept of the theme, tax refund shops, supply and marketing cooperatives, communities, prefabricated dishes and stall economy and other concepts directly related to consumption led the rise, which is interesting, because this is not reflected in the leading industries, so we look at the secondary industry, cosmetics, snack food, photovoltaic equipment, food processing and personal care products and other industries led the rise, in addition to photovoltaics, the rest are from large consumption, one point may be ignored by many people.
In fact, the profit growth rate of beauty care in 2023 is good, but it has been killed as a dog, because the industry that led the decline last year has beauty care, as for whether it is a wrongful killing, it may be a matter of opinion, but there must be a factor of consumption downgrade last year, which is also related to the large increase in previous years, but in fact, last year's profit is enough to repair the valuation, because the numerator is weak, and the denominator is strong.
Media, Computer, Communications, Machinery and equipment and electronics and other industries led the decline, which is quite interesting, but it is very in line with expectations, the first quarter will definitely reflect something, may be related to the annual report forecast, behind the profit level, told more than a year of stories, investors always have to calm down, looking back on 2021, new energy has both stories and performance, but last year's TMT did not, especially the game inside, in an old saying, only after the ebb tide knows who is swimming naked, so what is the state of TMT recently, needless to say, the logic behind it has been sorted out。
So when we see the concept of the theme of the lead down, and even the secondary market leader is concentrated in TMT, we are not surprised, this is the expected trend, "high cut low" in the high, is talking about TMT, but we still have to continue to track in the medium and long term, because we are also waiting for the AI-based industry to land on the performance, but this takes time, only the marginal change in the data comes, it is possible to usher in Davis double click, not storytelling......
1. The total turnover was 656.9 billion.
2. **3818.
3. The outflow of main funds was nearly 4.6 billion, 10After 49 minutes, the unilateral outflow began.
4. The inflow of foreign capital was 700 million.
The data is quite interesting, the selling pressure of domestic and foreign capital has also shrunk in the past two days, but domestic capital is still cautious, and it also reflects some cash demand, but the shrinkage is always a good thing, especially domestic capital, although it is not said that it will not be released again, but the wait-and-see sentiment in the past two days has been amplified, so it may be waiting for something, but this matter is too subjective to elaborate.
We believe that the current volume can be reduced is not low enough, if the Doji in the past two days can reach 600 billion below the transaction, the effect will be completely different, at least the current domestic capital, is far from this state, once the "waiting for something" can not land, domestic capital is likely to continue, even including foreign capital, so, at present, the overall need to wait for some uncertainty landing, do not be greedy and do not chase up, there is a profit is already rare......
I am Muyi, sharing my cognition, but not as an investment basis, profit and loss are the same, knowledge and action are one!
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