Many economists believe that the US data suggests that a soft landing has been successful.
To this end, economists have also analyzed and summed up a number of successful experiences, but no amount of successful experience can compare with a failed lesson. It's just strange that many people forget this one lesson.
The two most recent data points to a positive economic situation in the United States.
First, non-farm payrolls rose by 35 percent in January30,000, far exceeding expectations, shows that the job market is strong. The new jobs are concentrated in business services, health care, etc., indicating strong consumption and demand.
Secondly, the wage growth rate reached 45%, the highest since March 2022.
With similar data to back it up, Biden appears more confident about his re-election. But Trump warns that the U.S. economy is not as good as it seems.
In fact, a similar "false landing" occurred at the end of the 2006 rate hike.
In 2006, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 525%, which is strikingly similar to what it is now. In the period that followed, there was no recession, and it seemed that high interest rates had no impact on the economy, and the economy as a whole was doing well.
It is precisely because of the unexpectedly good economic data after the Fed stopped raising interest rates in 2006 that all walks of life are very confident that the United States will achieve a soft landing.
Manifested in **, more and more funds poured in**, and the S&P 500 index rose higher and higher.
In terms of real estate, more and more ordinary Americans are willing to borrow subprime mortgages to buy houses at higher interest rates, which further stimulates the price of housing prices in the United States.
At that time, Americans' confidence in a soft landing was stronger than it is now. But as you know, all that illusion came to naught when the subprime mortgage crisis erupted in 2008.
Will this time repeat the lessons of the last time?
Therefore, we need to analyze that the economy can still perform well now, and the reason is **?
First, Biden has adopted a series of fiscal stimulus packages that have significantly increased spending. These funds are invested in infrastructure and environmental protection projects to stimulate economic growth.
Second, the United States is relatively less affected by, or even benefited from, geopolitical shocks. For example, the Red Sea crisis, the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
But we need to remind everyone that the first reason may not be the cause of economic success, but may be the cause of recession. The fiscal stimulus package in the United States led to a whopping 1The deficit of $7 trillion is likely to widen further to more than $2,000 billion in the new fiscal year.
This has forced the US to issue more bonds, and the US bond crisis is only going to get worse with the Fed's delay in cutting interest rates.
This could lead to an even more serious consequence.
The global trend of "de-dollarization" has affected the international status of the US dollar to a certain extent.
As an old capitalist country, the United States reaps global wealth with its own financial system and the "dollar tide".
But the growing US debt crisis is likely to lead to a collapse in the dollar's position, and at that point, it will be more than just a recession.
ps: Since you have seen this, please "like" this article, thank you!