Just recently, Qiu Xiaohua, an economist and former director of the National Bureau of Statistics, also called in an interview for people to give 1,000 yuan per person to increase consumption. As for why my country doesn't send money, I once posted an article in May 2022 to make **, and it is now as it is** so far for everyone to correct.
Let's talk about a few snippets first, and then get to the point.
Piece one
On May 14, at the Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum, Sheng Songcheng, former director of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China and professor at China Europe International Business School, talked about the impact of the epidemic. Sheng Songcheng said that it is conceivable how much pressure he has.
Piece two
At noon on May 6, merchant Lin Jing walked into Yanjiao Dongmao Garment City to sort out the clothes in the stall, because it had been raining all day, he could only pack them in the market and then pull them out with a cart. During the 52 days when the East Trade Center was closed, Lin Jing's spring clothes worth hundreds of thousands of yuan were locked in the market and not a single one was sold. For more than a dozen hours, she didn't eat a bite of food, didn't drink a sip of water, and didn't even go to the bathroom. After packing up her things and looking at the stall she had struggled for, Lin Jing couldn't hold back, covered her face and squatted on the ground and cried. Lin Jing said that after more than ten years in the clothing wholesale business, she has never been so desperate as she is now. "It's been two months, and I haven't had a full night's sleep, not to mention my hair falling out."
This is a recent report by the Economic Observer about Hebei Yanjiao Dongmao Garment City. On March 13, Yanjiao found 5 positive cases in a round of nucleic acid testing for all employees, from Dongmao Garment City. On May 4, the management informed the merchants that the garment city would continue to be closed for rectification. From May 5 to 7, merchants will be able to come in to collect and move inventory.
Piece three
This is a post on Weibo in early May talking about the current lockdown in various places, if it is not the same place name, it should be from Hekou, a small county town in Yunnan adjacent to Vietnam.
It was only on May 12 that the county "resumed normalized epidemic prevention and control, and continued to promote the resumption of business, work and school". According to China News Network, there have been five outbreaks in Hekou County since February 16. After more than 80 days of fighting the epidemic.
Piece four
On May 27, the city of Dandong said that Omicron Ba2 had been found in the genetic sequencing of new asymptomatic infectionsThe 3 strains are different from the strain of the previous round of the epidemic on April 24 and are a new round of epidemic.
The city ** said, "Along the border, along the river, and along the coast, the situation of overseas epidemic prevention in our city is severe, and the difficulty and pressure of foreign prevention and import have increased, highlighting the complexity, arduousness and long-term nature of our city's epidemic prevention and control work." β
Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020, scholars have continued to voice their voices to stimulate consumption and stabilize the economy by directly sending money to the people. This reason is not complicated, several mutated viruses and strict lockdown and epidemic prevention have greatly restricted the logistics and logistics, which is almost devastating to the service industry, and the cash flow of small and micro enterprises is even more irresistible, and the unemployment rate has reached a record high.
In April, the unemployment rate for young people aged 16-24 reached 182%
Now that the epidemic has entered its third year, there is no point in discussing the necessity of giving out money, and worrying about inflation caused by sending money like the one above is like saying to a hungry person not to give him a piece of clothing and a loaf of bread, but to say that you will be able to hold on to three loaves of bread!
The so-called public finance is to spend money on the people, in key places, otherwise it will make people doubt its rationality.
So why hasn't there been a large-scale, nationwide distribution so far? In addition to the seemingly elaborate theories such as the issuance of money to attract inflation, there are also a number of crooked or practical factors that hinder the introduction of relief policies.
"Giving money is equal to not paying at all".
This is the earliest popular local theory since the outbreak of the epidemic, and the intellectual property rights belong to Hu Moumou (male), the former editor-in-chief of a newspaper. In order not to take it out of context, post his original words:
Some countries give money to everyone, but that belongs to coaxing everyone, and giving money is basically equivalent to not paying at all.
is really full of positive energy, and I don't know what tricks he has in his heart to not coax everyone.
In view of the fact that this theory has been educated by most of his Weibo fans and many other big Vs, and Editor-in-Chief Hu is a diligent person who learns astronomy and geography and current affairs and politics every day, presumably his understanding has made a leap now, especially after his fans have left such a message:
In your comment area, everyone scolds you, which means that no one scolds you ......Besides, you don't care.
It's over
On the day of the release of the social finance and other data in April, some people made judgments: "The weakest time for economic data has passed" and "April or the second quarter is the low point of the annual data".
It looks like the future is bright. A month, three months, like Ruili, intermittently "locked" for more than a year, it has passed, the question is, what about people's happiness, what about the sense of gain, is there?
This is like saying that our big A-share squat is conducive to eliminating risks and welcoming the big **, so isn't the Shanghai Composite Index squatting to one or two thousand points to usher in a greater victory? Squatting or not squatting?
** There is financial pressure, and the debt ratio is dangerous to re-issue money
If this is said to say that some local ** finances are under pressure, it is true. Ruili, Dongxing, Suifenhe, Dandong, and Guang'an Linshui counties, these cities and counties that silently carry the epidemic (that is, carry it), have taken a long time to close and control, and some places are really lacking in funds.
However, compared with the local government, there is more room for fiscal maneuvering, which can issue bonds, increase the deficit, or adjust other expenditure directions.
The epidemic itself affects tax revenues, and the fight against the epidemic requires additional expenditures, and the fiscal policy of increasing the amount of money is still feasible for China, because compared with ZB countries, China has the most resources, land, mineral deposits, forests, and sea areas, in addition to general public budget revenue, there are at least "two accounts" - sexual income, state-owned capital operating income is not available to others or the scale is incomparable. Since it is called "state-owned", isn't it the most appropriate thing to spend on the people when they need it most?
Let's talk about the debt ratio (the ratio of the debt balance at the end of the year to the GDP of the current year). According to the Ministry of Finance, the national ** debt balance by the end of 2020 was 4655 trillion yuan, debt ratio of 458%, which is lower than the internationally accepted 60% warning line, and also lower than the level of major market economies and emerging market countries. Of course, there has been an increase in the last year or so, but it has not crossed the line yet.
China's ** debt ratio (the ratio of the debt balance at the end of the year to the ** comprehensive financial resources of the current year), no latest data has been found, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimates, China's ** debt ratio in 2019 is 542%, which is 521% is slightly higher, much lower than the average of 100 in developed countries6% and the global average of 817%γIt is expected to remain in this state of affairs at present.
In addition to the so-called comprehensive financial resources such as taxation, China also has more than 635 trillion yuan of state-owned assets and a large amount of state-owned land. According to the data at the end of 2020, the assets of state-owned enterprises, state-owned financial enterprises, and administrative institutions were 268 respectively5 trillion yuan, 3232 trillion yuan and 435 trillion yuan; The total area of state-owned land is 52,33380,000 hectares. These are the unique "collaterals" under China's national conditions.
At present, China's macro leverage ratio (the ratio of total debt to GDP in the non-financial sector) is relatively stable, and by the end of 2021, the macro leverage ratio data released by the central bank was 2725%, compared with five years ago, the largest increase was in the household (household sector), up 20 percentage points, and the ** sector increased by about 10 percentage points; According to data from the National Finance and Development Laboratory, China's macro leverage ratio was 263 at the end of 20218%γ
The distribution of money does not have a strong effect on consumption
There is a view that blindly handing out money is a palliative rather than a cure, which can only alleviate the temporary difficulties of the economy, and the leverage effect that can be driven by itself is weak.
Yes, without the epidemic, we don't have to blindly search for demand stimulation methods, isn't it just to solve the immediate dilemma; Besides, in the long run we are all dead. Then when the storm passes, the sea will be calm again.
Speaking of the driving role of money distribution or consumption vouchers, a study by Professor Song Zheng of the Department of Economics of the University of Chinese Hong Kong and others shows that the digital consumption voucher scheme for 5,000 Hong Kong dollars launched by the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in 2021** has achieved more than 80% of the face value of consumption vouchers in terms of total consumption, which is close to the upper limit of the effect of previous fiscal stimulus policies around the world, and has played a positive role in Hong Kong's economic recovery.
According to data from the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Commerce, in the first quarter of this year, Zhejiang issued nearly 2 billion yuan of various consumption vouchers, and as of the end of March, the average redemption rate reached 74%, and the consumption has played an obvious role. According to the statistics of the Ningbo Municipal Bureau of Commerce, the final write-off rate of the first phase of consumption vouchers issued at the beginning of the year was 8579% and a leverage ratio of 71γ
According to a study by the joint research team of Peking University Guanghua-Ant Group Research Institute on the implementation of the first round of consumption vouchers in Hangzhou in 2020, the consumption pull effect of Hangzhou's digital consumption vouchers within 7 days has reached 35-5.8 times, and the pulling effect is stable, which has a positive effect on the post-epidemic economic recovery.
When it comes to the long-term mechanism of growth, I really advocated it in my article at the beginning of the year (Keynesianism cannot save China's GDP tomorrow), and recently we are still advocating (the marriage of "supply side" and "structural", is it happy?). , "Deep Transformation"), but the change that touches the depths is a bitter medicine, and some people already have a rejection reaction.
The fiscal deficit cannot be increased arbitrarily
Yes, that's true in any normal country. Authorized approval by representatives of the people's will is required. But as far as possible, we can try something positive.
Since the reopening, it has issued three special treasury bonds, including 1 trillion yuan in 2020. This year, the impact of Shanghai's lockdown for nearly two months is extraordinary, and the epidemic is spreading in many parts of the country, so unconventional strategies are needed to hedge with macro policies, and the feasible way is to issue special treasury bonds.
It is recommended to issue trillions of special treasury bonds as soon as possible, first of all, to distribute cash to specific groups, such as low-income people, unemployed people, people in areas particularly affected by the epidemic, and areas with special financial difficulties; Secondly, it will be used to assist specific industries, such as aviation, tourism, hotels, etc., for necessary rather than expanded epidemic prevention measures in various places, to alleviate the pressure at the grassroots level, and to support key construction projects with stable economic returns or better social benefits.
In addition to the above-mentioned theoretical or conceptual barriers, there are also practical factors that prevent the distribution of money to the people:
**Lack of enthusiasm for pro-consumption policies
We have always been good at and really like to approve investment projects, and vigorously promote the "iron rooster" project as a system advantage that others want to have but cannot get.
He has a soft spot for investment, because screening, compiling, submitting, and approving projects all mean that the administrative power is at work, and the leader exercises this power with at least "three senses" - a sense of admiration, a sense of satisfaction, and a sense of professional honor. Distributing money or promoting consumption is purely to serve the people, and it is completely different from engaging in investment, and it is completely two ways of behavior and two kinds of execution ideas. It should be reminded that institutional advantages may not be permanent, and if they cannot be transformed with the development stage and growth structure, they may become institutional disadvantages. (See the book Deep Transformation).
It is still the fastest to engage in infrastructure construction, which is not only the current demand, but also the formation of future supply
I believe that China's infrastructure peak has passed, and do not expect to build another 160,000 kilometers of highways or tens of thousands of kilometers of high-speed railways, and China will enter a stage where the maintenance and increment of stock will decrease year by year.
Although there is still some space for new projects, due to the fact that factor costs have entered the plateau situation, some investment projects may not form an effective supply, but form more and more "problem towns", idle industrial areas, unfinished buildings and other inefficient and ineffective supply, which not only wastes funds, land and other resources, but also may cause losses or liabilities, overdraft credit, deteriorate local financial resources, crowd out valuable financial assets and social resources, crowd out consumption and further distort the economic structure.
In addition to being related to a specific stage of development, it is also related to the historical ideology of the planned economy, such as favoring heavy industry and means of production and ignoring light industry and means of subsistence, leaving the shadow of the deformed economic structure of the former Soviet Union.
All production is ultimately to meet people's consumption, and only when it can finally reach the hands of consumers can it be effective production and truly promote the economic cycle.
There is a whole set of mechanisms and institutions for infrastructure construction, and it is difficult to implement it to promote consumption
Indeed, from the first-class decision-making department to the national development strategy and planning department, the fixed assets investment department, the infrastructure development department, the budget department of the Ministry of Finance, the economic construction department, to the local economic departments and professional cadre teams, there is a set of decision-making mechanisms and implementation agencies around investment projects formed for many years. The institutional setup to promote consumption is much weaker.
This is probably one of the reasons why it is easy to come up with a set of trillion-dollar investment plans in response to external shocks, but it is more difficult to come up with a set of consumption promotion plans of the same scale.
So, if the National Family Planning Commission can be transformed into a health commission that encourages childbearing, why can't the decision-making and enforcement agencies mentioned above also shift to a mechanism that focuses on human development?
P.S. How to send money in several regional countries
Hong Kong sends money
In 2020, 2021 and 2022, a total of HK$10,000 in cash, HK$5,000 and HK$10,000 in consumption vouchers were issued directly for each permanent resident aged 18 and above.
Taiwan sends money
From January 15 to March 2020, the Taiwan administrative agency approved the payment of NT$1,000 per person per day for epidemic prevention. Based on home isolation and quarantine for 14 days, each person can receive up to 1NT$40,000.
In September 2020, Taiwan's eight major industries were bailed out, and each employee could receive NT$30,000 for each employee, with a total of 6,000 enterprises and 30,000 people receiving relevant subsidies.
In June and July 2021, Taiwan's 850,000 "self-employed workers or workers without a certain employer" can log in to the labor insurance department** to receive a living allowance of NT$10,000 or NT$30,000.
Singapore sends money
From April this year to February next year, every Singapore resident will receive: $440-$760 rebate on utility bills, 2-4 months of miscellaneous rebate (about $50 per month), $450-$700 cash transfer, $300 neighborhood shopping voucher, etc. In total, if eligible, you can receive up to $1,960 in the next 8 months.
The payout is limited to Singapore residents residing in Singapore, aged 21 years and above, with an annual income of no more than $28,000 (S$28,000).
The United States sends money
From Trump to Biden, the United States has passed six rounds of financial aid stimulus bills for ordinary people and businesses. Federal ** debt from 22 at the end of 2019$7 trillion to $30 recently$4 trillion, an additional $7 over two years$7 trillion in debt, the largest of which is subsidies to the residential sector.
The U.S. payouts are mainly for every 7Individuals under $50,000 and families under $150,000; In the past two years, it is estimated that each family of three has received an average cash subsidy of at least US$30,000 (about 200,000 yuan).
Mr. Li Daokui from Beijing also received the money.
Canada sends money
During the pandemic, Canada provides a variety of benefits to individuals: Emergency Relief (CERB), Recovery Benefit (CRB), Sick Leave Benefit (CRSB), Nursing Care Benefit (CRCB), Employment Insurance (Unemployment Benefit, also known as EI), Old Age Pension (OAS) and Subsistence Allowance (GIS). For example, in the case of Emergency Relief Payments (CERB), residents who applied in April 2020 and stopped working due to the pandemic received a monthly subsidy of $2,000 for four months (with subsequent extensions).
Those who have no job, no basic salary, sick leave, and are idle at home can receive a subsidy of about 6,750 Canadian dollars (about 3.).40,000 RMB); Families with 2 children receive an additional $1,050 subsidy, or $300 for each additional child; For low- and moderate-income families, an additional $400 per person.
The above are all from public information, and the specific amount will vary depending on the actual situation of the individual or family