Add**Annotation, no more than 140 words (optional)Author: Chen HaoMaintaining a clear mind is an important skill that can help us better understand the world, make informed decisions, and solve problems, while cognitive biases can affect our thinking and decision-making, making it difficult to see the world clearly, unable to accurately analyze the essence of problems, and unable to make decisions and solve problems efficiently.
On this issue, Elon Musk once tweeted a post listing 50 common thinking biases, thinking errors and irrational human thinking tendencies that should be wary of, and he believes that understanding and identifying these biases can help improve thinking clarity and make more rational and objective judgments, and young people should be familiar with these cognitive biases in order to avoid falling into these psychological traps in their daily lives and decision-making. The post garnered hundreds of thousands of likes.
Elon Musk is one of the world's most successful entrepreneurs and innovators with notable achievements in several fields, such as electric vehicles, space exploration, and artificial intelligence, and his success is inseparable from his clarity of thinking and awareness of cognitive biases.
Ordinary people learn these 50 cognitive biases pointed out by Musk, which can help us keep our thinking clear, think better and make decisions, which is of great benefit to our work and life. Below, let's take a look at these 50 cognitive biases.
Picking up from the previous part "50 Cognitive Biases Musk Suggested We Should Be Aware of (Part I)" (click to view), this article will share 25 more cognitive biases. - 26 Utility Overlay - The more something is discussed openly and repeatedly, the more we will believe in the truth of the matter in order to integrate into society, similar to the meaning of our Chinese idiom "three-person city tiger". 【Example】A news about the miraculous efficacy of a certain health food suddenly circulated on social **, and this news was widely ** and discussed, and more and more people began to believe in its authenticity, despite the lack of conclusive evidence of its efficacy. - 27 Declineism - We tend to be romantic in our imagination of the old and negative in our attitude towards the future, believing that society and structures have been declining for a long time. Applying this cognitive bias to marketing is commonly known as "nostalgia marketing". Example: Some big fans of rock or jazz may think that modern pop or electronic seems impetuous and lacks depth compared to traditional. They may complain about the commercialization of the modern industry and the shallowness of popular culture, believing that these have led to the decline of the industry. - 28 Status quo bias - We tend to leave things as they are, and deviations from them are considered a loss. Example: Suppose someone has lived in a neighborhood for many years and is accustomed to the environment, neighbors, and daily lifestyles. Suddenly, one day, ** decided to renovate the area where the community is located, to re-plan greening, increase parking spaces, adjust the housing of some residents, etc. While these changes may lead to better living conditions and more conveniences, residents may feel dissatisfied and resistant to the status quo bias, may fear that the new plan will affect their daily lives, and even though the new plan may bring more benefits, they may still oppose the change because they are reluctant to leave their familiar surroundings. - 29 The Sunk Cost Fallacy - Even in the face of losses, we will still insist on investing more in what we have already invested in, rather than changing the direction of investment. In the face of sunk costs, the most common mistake we make is to continue the same mistake because of excessive attachment, which will cause greater losses. Example: Someone spent five yuan to buy a rotten apple, but in order not to waste it, he still eats it. In fact, this five yuan is a sunk cost, a cost that cannot be recovered by any means. Because he was reluctant to pay the sunk cost of five yuan, he not only lost money, but also ate a rotten apple. - 30 The Gambler's Fallacy - We think that the likelihood of something happening is influenced by past events. Example: When playing a coin toss, the coins are evenly matched, with a 50% probability of heads and tails. But when 10 heads have been thrown in a row, some people will believe that the probability of throwing tails has increased. In fact, the probability of the next occurrence of heads and tails is still 50% respectively. —31 Zero risk appetite – We tend to reduce smaller risk to zero rather than choose another option that reduces more overall risk. Example: A person who is going to buy a car is very worried about the risk of a car accident and therefore considers buying a car that is equipped with various latest safety technologies that are designed to minimize the risk of accidents. However, these safety technologies can increase the cost of the car. In fact, he can also consider choosing a car that is more affordable, but the basic safety can be guaranteed, and use the money saved to buy more comprehensive car insurance, so that he can also be financially protected in the event of an accident. - 32 The framing effect – also known as the narrative effect or the contextual effect: we often come to different conclusions about the same problem based on different ways of expressing it. It's a bit like the situation referred to in the Chinese idiom "three days and four days". Example: Imagine that you are participating in a study and the researcher tells you: aIf you take this new drug, then you have a 90% chance of surviving. B: If you don't take this new drug, then you have a 10% chance of dying. Logically, A and B describe the same situation – there is a 90% survival rate with a new drug. However, people may react differently when confronted with both descriptions. Some people may be more willing to accept a new drug because of the "90% survival rate" in scenario A, while others may be more reluctant to accept it because of the "10% mortality" in scenario B. - 33 Stereotypes - Although there is no information about individuals, we still generally assume that a general group has certain personality traits that are specific. Example: I don't know if you've ever heard such a saying? Foreigners think that Chinese know kung fu. - 34 Homogeneity bias in outside groups - People think that outsiders are the same, while people in their own circle are different. Example: Let's say you're a rock and roll enthusiast and you form a rock band with a group of like-minded friends. In your eyes, each band member has their own unique personality, skills, and style, which makes your band very unique and diverse. However, when you meet some people who aren't interested in rock 'n' roll, you might think that all of them lack personality, are conservative, and boring. You might think that the similarities between them are very high because neither of them understands or appreciates rock 'n' roll**. 35 Authority bias – We trust the opinions of authority figures and are often influenced by them. Example: The ancestral recipes of Tibetan medicine experts that were proliferated in TV shopping advertisements in the past are a classic example of authority bias. - 36 The Placebo Effect - If we believe that a ** method will work, it will often have some effect. In fact, the nutritional content of different eggs is almost the same, and the reason why we think that eggs are more nutritious is mainly because we believe that the way we raise them will affect the nutritional content of eggs. - 37 Survivorship bias - We often see the stories of survivors because the non-survivors are no longer able to speak up. And it's easy to take what we see as all. Example: During World War II, the U.S. Air Force wanted to increase the survival rate of fighter jets. They found that among the returning fighters, there were more bullet holes in the wings and few bullet holes in the fuselage. Therefore, they mistakenly believed that the wing was more vulnerable and decided to strengthen the protection of the wing. However, in fact, those fighters who were hit in the fuselage often could not return, so bullet holes in the fuselage were not observed. The real problem is that critical parts such as engines are more vulnerable, but once these parts are damaged, the aircraft often does not survive. - 38 Rapid mental activity - Our perception of time can be altered by trauma, drug use (abuse), and physical exertion. Example: When you focus on a task for a long time, such as writing a report or preparing a speech for several hours on end, you may suddenly realize that time flies, as if only a moment has passed, but in fact several hours have passed, this is because your brain has changed its perception of time in a state of high concentration and exhaustion. - 39 The Law of Trivial (Bicycle Shed Effect) - We often place too much emphasis on trivial issues and tend to avoid more complex ones. This is similar to a Chinese saying: "If you pick up the sesame seeds, you lose the watermelon". Example: Let's say you're planning an outdoor activity for a weekend, and you need to decide to go and play. Along the way, you may spend a lot of time wrestling with trivial issues such as which color picnic blanket to choose, whether you need to bring sunscreen, or what snacks to prepare. However, you may be overlooking more critical issues such as whether the weather conditions are suitable for outdoor activities, what the traffic conditions are at your destination, or whether you need to book in advance. - 40 Zeignick Memory Effect - People are more likely to remember unfinished work than they have done. Example: When we are faced with a task, whether it is study, work or life, if the task is not completed, we are likely to continue to think and worry, even if we temporarily put down the work at hand, the relevant information of the unfinished task will still hover in our minds. - 41 The IKEA Effect – We give more value to the things we are personally involved in making. 【Example】When you cook your own food, even though the final food may not be perfect, you will find it particularly delicious because you put your own effort and time into the preparation process. You may cherish the food even more than the food in the restaurant outside, even though the quality may be objectively the same. - 42 The Ben Franklin Effect - We like to help others, and we are more likely to help those we have helped than those who have helped us. 【Example】Xiao Wang lent Xiao Li 1,000 yuan, and a few days later, Xiao Li borrowed a car from Xiao Wang, and Xiao Wang agreed again. - 43 The bystander effect - The more people who are watching, the less likely they are to come out and help the victim. Example: On a busy street, there was an elderly man who fell and was lying on the ground in pain. If there were only one or two people on the scene, they would most likely immediately come to the aid of the person who had fallen. However, if there are a dozen or more people on site, the situation can be completely different. In this case, everyone may think, "Someone is definitely going to help him, I don't have to rush it." As a result, despite the presence of many people, very few actually take action to help the elderly. —44 Suggestibility—In everyday life, ordinary people, especially children, sometimes mistake the ideas suggested by the questioner for memory. Example: A psychologist conducts an experiment on a group of children. He showed the children a picture of a house and asked them if they remembered seeing it before. Before showing **, the psychologist privately told one of the children that he should indicate in the experiment that he remembered the **. When the child is asked if he remembers the **, the child who was told privately is likely to say that he does, even if he has never seen the ** before. 45 False Memories – We can mistake our imagination for real memory. Example: A common example of false memory is the "Mandela Effect". The term stems from a false memory of South Africa's former Nelson Mandela. Many people mistakenly remember that Mandela died in the 80s of the last century and have a clear memory of his funeral. However, in fact, Mandela was only released in the 90s and died in 2013. This false memory is widely spread among the population and even affects the beliefs and cognition of some people. - 46 Hidden Memories - We mistake the real for the imagination. Example: Xiao Wang thought that it was a dream he had to go to the cemetery, but in fact he had actually been to the cemetery. - 47 Pessimistic bias - We sometimes overestimate the probability of a bad outcome. Example: You are considering changing jobs, but when faced with a new job opportunity, you may start to worry about various negative situations, such as: the new job may not be suitable for you, you may meet difficult colleagues, the new environment may make you feel uncomfortable, etc. You may hesitate because of these concerns or even choose to pass up the opportunity in the end. - 48 Optimism bias - We are sometimes overly optimistic about the outcome of the good. Example: When you enter the market, you always feel that you will definitely be in the market. 49 Clustering Illusion – We find patterns and patterns in random data and form clusters. This tendency is beneficial in many cases because it helps us to understand and ** the world. However, when applied to random events, this tendency can lead to erroneous conclusions and decisions. Example: Suppose a team in a soccer season has consecutive wins in the previous rounds. At this point, the fans may start discussing whether this team is in "streak mode" and that they will continue to win in future matches. - 50 Blind Spots of Prejudice – We don't think we're biased, and at the same time think others are more biased than we are. Example: A staunch conservative supporter may think that he or she has an objective, rational view on political issues, while those who believe that *** people (such as liberals) are influenced by some kind of bias and that their views are not objective enough. However, in fact, he may also be influenced by his own political beliefs and prejudices, and cannot see things holistically and objectively. 
to the network the endFebruary**Dynamic Incentive Plan Author: Chen Hao, a marketing expert, has successful experience in the field of TOC TOB, and has a column in the "International Public Relations" magazine, marketing department, advertising door, digital English network, chief marketing officer, advertising person dry goods warehouse and other industries.
Official account: brand market relativity, welcome to pay attention to the exchange.