Today, let's talk about the amount of fixed asset investment in the whole society.
Investment in fixed assets: It is a general term for the amount of work completed in the construction and acquisition of fixed assets and the expenses related to it in a certain period of time.
Why do we need to study the amount of fixed asset investment in the whole society?
The amount of fixed assets completed by the whole society is a very important indicator in the macroeconomic field, and everyone pays great attention to it.
The reason for this is that it is an important basic data for the formation of "gross capital formation" in GDP.
Remember the GDP accounting formula under the expenditure method?
GDP = Final Consumption Expenditure + Gross Capital Formation + Net Exports of Goods and Services.
The "troika" of consumption, investment, net exports, how effective they are in boosting GDP, let's look at the data for 2022.
In 2022, China's GDP growth rate will be 3%;
Among them, final consumption expenditure drove GDP growth by 10%, gross capital formation drove GDP growth by 15%, net exports of goods and services drove GDP growth by 05%。
Gross capital formation contributed 50% to GDP growth (15%/3%）。
Let's take a look at the effect of the troika on GDP over the past 20 years.
An important skill for macroeconomic analysis is to learn to "look at the picture and speak".
Now wind provides very convenient data**, and can also quickly and intelligently generate graphs, which saves a lot of time and energy for the basic work of macroeconomic analysis.
First look for the very "abrupt" points in the graph, the "contradictory" points, and then combine the historical events, the background of the times to analyze, to verify the reasons for the graph, so as to repeatedly train, you can slowly find the sensitivity of the graph analysis, and finally, can be combined with the current policy background, to judge the future trend of the graph, and make a certain judgment on the macroeconomic situation.
The most significant segment in this graph is from 2008 to 2010, and we can find the data at the end of 2009:
Final consumption expenditure contributed 57.0 percent to GDP growth55%, and the contribution of gross capital formation to GDP growth was 8529%。
Net exports of goods and services contributed -42 to GDP growth84%。
In 2008, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered the international financial crisis, the international market demand shrank sharply, China's exports showed negative growth, in order to further expand domestic demand, promote steady economic growth, China launched a 4 trillion stimulus plan (investment), therefore, at the end of 2009, the "net export" contribution rate to GDP growth rate decreased significantly, and "investment" became the absolute main force of GDP growth contribution rate.
Take you to a brief analysis of such a short paragraph.
Okay, let's go back to gross capital formation.
Gross capital formation includes: gross fixed capital formation and changes in inventories.
Among them, gross fixed capital formation accounted for the absolute majority, and the increase in inventories accounted for a small proportion.
In the case of rough calculation, gross capital formation is gross fixed capital formation, and gross fixed capital formation is mainly calculated based on the "amount of investment in fixed assets of the whole society".
Therefore, the amount of investment in fixed assets is an important basic data for calculating the "gross capital formation" in GDP.
There are a bit too many nouns here, to avoid confusion, let's make a mind map to see.
It should be noted here that "gross fixed capital formation" and "investment in fixed assets of the whole society" are two different concepts, and there are differences between them in some statistical scopes, which we will talk about later.
Simply talking about the amount of investment in fixed assets is actually prone to ambiguity.
The amount of investment in fixed assets of all calibers is called the amount of investment in fixed assets of the whole society.
The investment in fixed assets of the whole society is composed of two major parts: one is the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households); The second is the investment in fixed assets of peasant households.
The proportion of fixed asset investment of rural households is very small, and the data will only be released once a year;
The investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) will be released once a month, so the "investment in fixed assets" mentioned in daily communication is most likely the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households).
If you want to specifically express the data that includes "fixed asset investment of rural households", you will add "the whole society" before the name.
1.Investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households).
The amount of investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) includes two types of items:
Planned investment in fixed asset projects with a total investment of more than 5 million yuan;
All real estate development project investments.
The amount of investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) collects data by means of a comprehensive survey, and the survey unit submits the data through the online direct reporting platform.
Around the 15th of each month, the National Bureau of Statistics will publish the cumulative balance of fixed asset investment on its official website.
From January to October, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 419409 billion yuan.
If you want to know the amount of new fixed asset investment in the current month, you can subtract the "September data" from the "October data".
From January to September, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 375035 billion yuan.
Then, the amount of new investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) in October was 4,437.4 billion yuan.
2.Rural households' investment in fixed assets
Just by listening to its name, it is difficult to imagine the difficulty of surveying the fixed asset investment of rural households, so the fixed asset investment of rural households adopts a sample survey.
The statistical scope of rural households' investment in fixed assets includes the value of fixed assets such as rural households' houses, buildings, machinery and equipment, appliances and tools, etc., and the statistical standard is more than 1,000 yuan, and the service life is 2 years or more.
Because of the difficulty of the survey and the small size of the data, this data will only be released once a year.
Let's take a look at the "2022 Statistical Communiqué on National Economic and Social Development", in 2022, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society will 579556 billion yuan, an increase of 4 over the previous year9%。The investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 572138 billion yuan.
A little calculation can show that the fixed asset investment of rural households in 2022 will be 741.8 billion yuan, accounting for 1 percent of the total fixed asset investment of the whole society3%。
Below, we mainly analyze the amount of investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households).
We use the structural comparison approach mentioned in Understanding the Scale of Social Financing.
There are several ways to compare the amount of investment in fixed assets.
First, according to the industry.
It is divided into primary, secondary and tertiary industries.
By industry, the investment in the primary industry was 888.2 billion yuan;
the investment in the secondary industry was 132454 billion yuan;
The investment in the tertiary industry is 278074 billion yuan.
Investment in the tertiary industry accounted for 6630%。
Second, further industry division should be carried out on the basis of industry.
Add up the amount of investment in fixed assets for all industries and remember the total amount of investment in fixed assets.
Under normal circumstances, we do not pay attention to the fixed asset investment in each industry, but refine the key points of these industries and classify them into more important sub-items, such as infrastructure investment, real estate investment, and manufacturing investment.
investment in the manufacturing sector, which corresponds to the manufacturing sector in the secondary sector;
Real estate investment, corresponding to the real estate industry in the tertiary industry;
Infrastructure investment has a richer connotation, and there are broad and narrow senses.
Infrastructure investment in a broad sense includes:
Public facilities, such as electricity, telecommunications, tap water, piped gas, sanitation, sewerage, and solid waste collection and treatment;
public works such as dams, irrigation and drainage canals;
Transportation facilities such as roads, railways, ports, airports, waterways.
Infrastructure investment in the narrow sense does not include the production and industry of electricity, heat, gas and water.
This is to avoid duplication of data between the industrial and infrastructure sectors, so a culling process is made.
We will focus on infrastructure investment and then expand on it in detail.
Third, it is divided according to the type of registration.
It is divided into fixed asset investment of domestic enterprises, fixed asset investment of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan enterprises, and fixed asset investment of foreign enterprises.
However, what everyone is more concerned about is the situation of "investment by state-owned and state-controlled units" and "private investment in fixed assets".
Under this type of division, it evolves into:
the amount of investment in state-owned and state-controlled units;
private investment in fixed assets;
The amount of investment by foreign investors and wholly foreign-owned holding enterprises from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
Every month, the National Bureau of Statistics will release data on the amount of private fixed asset investment
From January to October, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 419409 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%。Among them, the private investment in fixed assets was 215863 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 05%。
Private investment in fixed assets accounted for 5147%。
Private investment in fixed assets can reflect the investment status of private enterprises, and the state can use these data and the changing trend of the data to formulate policies to support private investment in the next stage.
Financial practitioners can also find high-quality customers more accurately through policy documents, issue loans, and complete performance.
Finally, let's briefly talk about the difference between "gross fixed capital formation" and "total investment in fixed assets".
1.The amount of investment in fixed assets of the whole society only includes the investment of projects with a total planned investment of more than 5 million yuan; Gross fixed capital formation counts all fixed asset items.
2.The amount of investment in fixed assets of the whole society only includes tangible fixed assets; Gross fixed capital formation includes both tangible and intangible fixed assets such as computer software.
Because the definition of fixed assets themselves in accounting is tangible assets.
3.The amount of investment in fixed assets includes land acquisition, old building purchase and old equipment purchase; Gross fixed capital formation excludes these expenses.
4.The amount of investment in fixed assets of the whole society does not include the value-added sales of commercial housing, the fixed assets increased by the trial production of new products, and the expenditure on land improvement that has not been formally approved; Gross fixed capital formation includes these values.
Okay, that's a little bit more for today, so let's summarize the big picture.
It's not easy to see this seriously.
When we start to try to read macroeconomic news, many times we are relatively unfamiliar with the terms in the press release, and we always feel that we can't read the content that is useful to us, just like unfamiliar English words cause dyslexia.
Therefore, for macroeconomic analysis, it is difficult to find a sense of getting started.
Today's article is a bit of a popular science flavor and talks about a lot of conceptual things, but I believe that if you read today's article carefully and come across a press release related to "fixed asset investment" in the future, you will gradually have a familiar feeling.
You can check it a little, this is the press release of "National Fixed Asset Investment from January to October 2023" released by the National Bureau of Statistics, try to read it.