There is no worst, only worse.
The daily line is five consecutive yin, the weekly line is yin, and this week's A shares fell out of Xiang.
The Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 6% for the week**, and several other broad-based indices were even more striking, all posting their biggest weekly losses since the current bear market.
The Chinese New Year is coming soon, and it is really sad to fall like this. Although after New Year's Day, brother is clearly bearish ** to around 2650, except for the central state-owned enterprises with high dividends, all other varieties are bearish; However, falling to around 2650 so quickly also exceeded expectations.
At the beginning of last year, my brother's strategy was "all in AI"; After New Year's Day this year, Ge's strategy is "all in high dividends", relatively speaking, this year's strategy is more difficult. Because, last year's AI was actually a clear card, and everyone on the earth was optimistic, but this year's high dividends, most people are not optimistic.
Looking back now, whether it is bearish ** or bullish on high dividend central state-owned enterprises, they have been verified by the market.
If you listen to my brother's words, in recent weeks, you should be able to lose about 30% less, and by the way, you can drink about 10% of the soup on high dividends, after New Year's Day, some of the high-dividend central state-owned enterprises that my brother talked about in the planet's "Weekly Strategy" have risen by about 10%, and a negative and positive is about 40% of the income difference.
The bear market is coming to an end.
Today, my brother wants to tell you a good news and a bad news.
The good news is that this bear market has come to an end; The bad news is that the end of this bear market will last longer than before.
On Saturday, in the planet's "Weekly Strategy", Brother clearly told everyone that this round of bear market has come to an end.
The reason is very simple, because ** has entered the end of the big C wave killing and falling.
All previous rounds of bear markets will experience ABC's **3 waves, and this round of bear market is no exception.
3708-2863 is wave A, 2863-3418 is wave B**, and since 3418, it is wave C.
After New Year's Day, ** fell below the low point of wave A at 2863, which means that the structure of the big wave killing and falling was finally confirmed, and the index began to accelerate to the bottom and enter the end of the bear market, similar to the trend after falling below 2638 in October '18.
It's just that the end of the 18-year bear market lasted for a short time, and the country soon came to a full rescue, but the end of this bear market will last longer, because the situation this time is not as serious as it was at that time.
Whether it was the global financial crisis in '08, or the stock market crash in '15, or the October '18, the problems faced by ** are much more severe than the current ones, not an order of magnitude. At that time, either a systemic financial crisis had already erupted, or a systemic financial crisis was on the verge of eruption.
For the country, there is only one criterion for judging whether the country will decisively bail out the market, that is, whether a systemic financial crisis will break out, which is the bottom line, and it will only act decisively when the bottom line is touched.
08 was the global financial crisis, so the country directly introduced the "four trillion" stimulus plan; During the stock market crash in 15 years, leveraged funds were mainly on illiquid tickets, and thousands of shares fell in a row to make a stock market crash, the market has lost liquidity, and there was a financial crisis. In October 18, the equity pledge of thousands of listed companies faced a collective liquidation, and if the market was not rescued, it was a financial crisis, so the country once again took decisive action and soon ended the bear market.
However, in this round of bear market, leveraged funds are mainly on the big white horse and the old track with sufficient liquidity, which can be closed at any time, rather than leveraged funds mainly on illiquid tickets as in 15 years; At the same time, the thunder of equity pledge is almost ranked after 18 years, and now the scale of the pledge disk in the market is very small, only about one-tenth of what it was in 18 years, and the pledge discount rate is also very low, and the risk is very limited.
Therefore, this round of bear market, neither like 15 years of continuous thousands of shares of the stock market crash, nor pledged concentrated liquidation of mines, at present, the probability of a financial crisis is very small, far less than the current real estate risk.
Whether it was the stock market crash in '08, or the stock market crash in '15, or the end of October '18, the state took decisive action, and so far, the country's action has been very slow, saying more and doing less, and the main reason is this.
Therefore, as long as there is no financial crisis signal like that of 18 years, the country's rescue will not be too strong, and the end of this round of bear market will last longer than in the past, and we must be mentally prepared for this.
We must understand that all the national bailouts are because of the financial crisis that has occurred or is about to happen, not because the accounts of shareholders have fallen into dogs, which is not the mission of the state to bail out the market.
The wind is high and the waves are urgent, and the big boat is sitting
The top of the bull market, which is easy to identify accurately; However, the bottom of a bear market is difficult to accurately identify in advance, and it is often determined months after the bottom has formed. The current round of bear market, because the problems it faces, are more complex than previous round bear markets, so the formation of the bottom may also be more complicated than in the past.
Relatively speaking, the bottom of the policy can be confirmed relatively quickly, and the bottom of the market will be a lot of trouble, but from the perspective of historical experience, the market bottom of the historical bear market will fall within 10% relative to the bottom of the policy, and at the same time, the market bottom of each round of bear market will be higher than the market bottom of the last round of bear market.
Maintaining the previous view, 2724 is likely to be the bottom of the policy. Because, the national team has begun to have a large amount of real money, and the country has begun to bail out the market, although the current rescue efforts are not as good as in the past.
As for the bottom of the market, as mentioned at the beginning of the year, it may fall around 2650. However, as long as the market bottom falls above 2440, there is nothing wrong with it.
Whether 2666 can become the bottom of the market, no one knows now, and even if it does, it will be at least 3 months before it can be confirmed. It is necessary not only to confirm the large white candle that has risen sharply, but also to ensure that the index will not be at a new low for more than 3 months.
At present, the most important thing is still to control, if you are not holding a central state-owned enterprise with high dividends, it is best to keep it at two or three percent, rest lightly, keep the principal alive, don't die before dawn, and now it is more important than anything to survive.
At the end of each round of bear market or the beginning of the bull market, it is easy to lose a lot, because a large number of **, at the end of the bear market or the beginning of the bull market, will still be cut in half again, often after the policy comes out, there will be a lot of ** cut in half. So, don't leave anything to chance.
Or the old point of view, before the new track can not fully realize the performance, the central state-owned enterprises with high dividends are still the first choice for investment, which can not only save your life at the end of the bear market, but also allow you to eat meat after the bull market comes, or the old saying, other varieties are dead and alive.
When the wind is high and the waves are strong, we have to take the biggest boat, and only the biggest boat is the safest.
After New Year's Day, it is a time of high wind and waves; And the central state-owned enterprises with high dividends are the biggest ship.