On Monday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen **volume**, the center of gravity moved slightly upward, and the three major indexes rose moderately again.
As of **, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 041%, Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index are **004% and 059%, 108 trillion, an increase of 22 billion from the previous day.
In terms of industry sectors, communication equipment, petroleum, ships, power and coal led the gains, while real estate, insurance, brokerage, diversified finance and environmental protection occupied the list of decliners.
*In terms of 2083 shares, **3170 shares, 87 shares and 15 shares, the increase is 5% between the limit and 215 shares, and the money-making effect is acceptable.
The net sale of northbound funds was about 7.1 billion, and the net outflow of main funds was 2695 billion, institutional investors are a little cautious.
Traceability perspective: Special time node + short-term profit order cashing + quick V reverse floating chip cleaning + 60 days** still need to be repaired, **homeopathic continue**consolidation,Focus on "stability".It is expected that the market will still have inertia to rush higher.
On the time-sharing chart, the morning market opened flat**, and there was a small wave of diving around 10 o'clock. Obviously, the continuous high level has made some impatient and undetermined investors choose to wait and see.
Then there was another ** rebound, which means that at the special time node, the bears did not dare to be overly arrogant. The micro tail market rose slightly, hitting a new high, which means that another batch of short funds chased up and entered.
The whole time-sharing chart reflects the word "stable".
It is worth mentioning that the trend of the science and technology innovation board is significantly stronger than that of the main board, and there are only 3 shares in its top 10 market capitalization, which means that after the deep adjustment of the past three years, the growth stocks have now entered the "hitting zone" of long-term investors.
Another phenomenon worth mentioning is:, in the last 8 trading days, whether it is the main board or the GEM, the overall high ** at the same timeThere will be diving of varying magnitudes every dayThis needs to be taken seriously.
Today, the high-dividend sectors are making a comeback, with oil, power, and coal respectively36% and 230%, many targets hit record highs, such as a certain oil service.
The long-term logic lies in the fact that the risk-free rate of return continues to be low, and the conservative long-term capital is "asset allocation short", which happens that high-dividend assets can provide much higher returns than bonds in the long run.
The short-term stimulus factors lie in the improvement of quality and efficiency of central state-owned enterprises, the optimization of the KPI assessment system, and the blessing of the concept of special valuation and AI. (e.g. the three major operators).
The pan-AI concept continues to ferment and further spread. For example, liquid-cooled servers +562%, CPO concept +218%, sora concept +218%。This direction is still time-driven, and only a very small number of ** have real performance support, just follow the graph.
Innovative drug super **, CXO concept +326%, mainly because there are two small essays in the market, which will not be repeated here. However, the traceability of the understanding of the over-fall after the phased adjustment is sufficient.
At present, the Shanghai Composite Index has been around 3,000 points for 7 trading days, and the bulls believe that this is the momentum before the rush, while the bears believe that it is stagflation.
The point of view of traceability is: from the perspective of trading, the current time point is the "invalid time", and then the market will still rise, and there is a high probability of a strong adjustment after that, the reason is:
1. The trading volume of the two cities is 108 trillion, more than one trillion transactions for 4 consecutive days, there is no need to scare yourself if you have volume.
At the same time, the volume comes first in the price, and the volume continued to increase last week and today, and the market is unlikely to fall directly without a high point.
2. The high-dividend sector has risen again after a small consolidation, especially the power sector has hit a new high since September 2021, and the upside of the high-dividend sector has opened.
3. Financiers continue to return. Dongcai Chioce data shows that the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is reported at 76399.9 billion yuan, an increase of 4$1.1 billion; The financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was reported at 67791.4 billion yuan, an increase of 17$6.6 billion; The total of the two cities is 144191.3 billion yuan, an increase of 21 from the previous trading day7.7 billion yuan.
From a technical point of view, the Shanghai Composite Index has three consecutive positives, and the bulls are firmly in control of the situation.
In terms of shape, the last 7 trading days have been around the 3000-point box as a whole**, but the center of gravity has been significantly raised, and the bulls are eager to try, and the intention to rush up is more obvious. The key is the trend after the surge.
*, 5-day, 10-day and 20-day bulls are aligned, and diverge upward, 20-day ** is about to cross above 60-day**, and the trend and structure of the stock index standing on the half-year line (120 days**) at the same time remain unchanged.
The 15-minute, 30-minute and 60-minute periods are bullish, the trend is upward, the sword is pointing at the 3100 index mark, and the 120-minute slowly moves upward, ** further repair is needed.
In a word, the trend is still there, but the repair of the technical level and the cleaning of the floating chips are not thorough, and it is still necessary to repeat it, considering the special time, and the traceability believes that the final trend of the market is to pull up and lure more, and then violently wash the market again, and finally usher in the Spring Festival.
This point in time may be the day after tomorrow.
Comprehensive analysis: Continuous**, short-term momentum is more sufficient, Tuesday or about to change, personal guess the direction of the upward.
The article is a collation and reflection of traceable investment ideas, and does not constitute investment advice, for reference only).