1. Characteristics of the cell industry
Cells are made of high-purity monocrystalline silicon wafers through production and processing, and are widely used in a variety of photovoltaic power generation system application scenarios.
Monocrystalline silicon cells are located in the middle of the photovoltaic industry chain, and are semiconductor sheets that can convert the sun's light energy into electrical energy through the processing of monocrystalline silicon wafers. Sihan released the "2023-2028 China Cell Industry Development Prospect Strategy and Investment Risk Analysis Report".
Monocrystalline silicon cells with higher conversion efficiency have higher output power, and the overall power of photovoltaic modules formed by their packaging will also be higher. Defects in the cell production process often lead to uneven internal resistance of a single cell, which is very prone to hot spots, which can burn the cell at least and cause the combustion of the entire cell, which is very harmful to the service life of photovoltaic modules packaged with cells.
2. Basic situation of the cell industry
Driven by the dual response to the energy crisis and the strengthening of environmental protection, the photovoltaic industry has been strongly supported by policies around the world, and the overall trend of rapid and upward development has been shown. At the end of 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of PV in the world reached 1,156GW, and the compound annual growth rate of new global installed capacity from 2020 to 2022 reached 3301%。
Benefiting from the guidance of the global carbon neutrality goal and the specific roadmap of each country, in 2020, 2021 and 2022, even under the adverse impact of the sluggish global economic recovery, the global photovoltaic application market still achieved rapid growth, with the annual installed capacity reaching about 130GW, 170GW and 230GW respectively, with a compound growth rate of 33 during the reporting period01%。
According to the IEA's Renewables 2022 Analysis and Forecast to 2027, global renewable energy capacity will grow by nearly 2,400GW between 2022 and 2027, the largest increase in the IEA's history. By 2025, renewables will surpass coal in annual electricity generation to become the world's largest electricity generation**. In 2023, driven by favorable factors such as the declining cost of photovoltaic power generation and the global green recovery, the global new installed capacity of PV will continue to grow rapidly, and it is expected that the average annual new installed capacity of global PV will reach 301-359GW from 2023 to 2025.
With the advantages of crystalline silicon technology and cost control, the production capacity and output of all links of China's photovoltaic industry have achieved varying degrees of growth in the world, and the focus of the global photovoltaic industry has further shifted to China. The photovoltaic industry has become a strategic emerging industry in China that has reached the international leading level.
As the core component of photovoltaic power generation system, the scale of the solar cell industry has expanded simultaneously in recent years, and the concentration has continued to increase. According to CPIA statistics, the global production of crystalline silicon solar cells reached 366 in 20221GW, up 635%；In 2022, China's solar cell output will be 3306GW, a year-on-year increase of 671%。As the technological change of the cell sector accelerates, enterprises pursue further cost reduction, and companies with leading technology and reasonable production capacity structure continue to expand their market share, and their large-size cell products with high photoelectric conversion efficiency, good long-term stability and cost advantages are the mainstream of the downstream module market demand.
In recent years, the installed capacity of China's photovoltaic industry has been expanding, and by the end of 2022, the grid-connected installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation has reached 39204gw。However, it is undeniable that China's existing energy consumption structure is still far from achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. At present, China's energy structure is still dominated by traditional energy, with coal, oil and natural gas accounting for about 84% and non-fossil energy accounting for only 16%.
To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, it is necessary to actively implement renewable energy substitution actions and reduce the proportion of fossil energy. The main body of energy will be dominated by new energyCoal, oil, natural gasSupplemented by the structural transformation of "one large and three small", a new power system with new energy as the main body will be built.
According to the "Opinions on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" issued by the Communist Party of China, the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy needs to reach 25% by 2030, and the capacity of wind and solar power generation capacity will reach 1,200GW; By 2060, the share of non-fossil energy consumption needs to reach more than 80%. According to the Yangtze River Research Institute and CICC, the annual domestic PV demand is expected to reach 700GW by then, with a cumulative total of more than 140,000 GW, an increase of 70 times compared with the cumulative installed capacity at the end of 2019; If overseas demand is taken into account, the market space will even reach 2,400-3,000GW per year, which is 20-25 times the installed capacity in 2019.
In order to achieve a carbon neutrality schedule, since 2021, various supportive policies for the domestic photovoltaic industry have been issued frequently, emphasizing the efforts of both the first and the market, coordinating domestic and international energy resources, and accelerating the important role of photovoltaic in promoting the green and low-carbon technological revolution. Specifically, with the cancellation of subsidies for newly filed centralized, industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in 2021 as a milestone, the development of China's photovoltaic industry is no longer constrained by manufacturing costs, and has entered a benign development stage that relies on its own technological progress, process improvement, and scale expansion to achieve continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase.
With the implementation of various major policies, it is expected that China's photovoltaic installed capacity will maintain a high boom growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
The first phase of the project with an installed capacity of about 100GW has started in an orderly manner at the end of 2021, of which about half is wind and solar, and the second phase has also started to apply for the same period, and most of them are expected to be connected to the grid by the end of 2023.
Second, the county is actively promoting the pilot development of rooftop distributed photovoltaics, and it is expected that the average annual photovoltaic installed capacity of the county is expected to reach 40GW. Third, the launch of carbon emission reduction support tools will help financial institutions issue loans at lower interest rates to relevant enterprises in key areas of carbon emission reduction, promote more social funds to invest in green fields, and help achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.
3. The upstream and downstream situation of the cell industry
(1) The industrial chain of the cell industry
Cells can convert light energy into electrical energy. Cells are processed by a series of processes such as texturing, diffusion, etching, and cell processing requires high technical capabilities and capital investment.
1) Upstream industry
The raw materials of photovoltaic cells are mainly photovoltaic silicon wafers, which can be divided into monocrystalline silicon wafers and polycrystalline silicon wafers according to different raw materials and production processes. Monocrystalline silicon wafer enterprises use monocrystalline furnaces to produce monocrystalline silicon rods, and polycrystalline silicon wafer enterprises use ingot furnaces to produce polycrystalline silicon ingots, and then monocrystalline silicon rods and polycrystalline silicon ingots are cut to form monocrystalline silicon wafers and polycrystalline silicon wafers, which are finally used in the production of photovoltaic products such as solar cell modules. Monocrystalline cells have gradually replaced multi-Si cells with high conversion efficiency and cost-effectiveness, and have become the mainstream products in the cell market. At the same time, with the continuous progress of polysilicon production technology, rod pulling process and wafer cutting process, the production cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers has decreased rapidly, and in recent years, monocrystalline silicon wafers have replaced polycrystalline silicon wafers as the mainstream of photovoltaic silicon wafers.
2) Downstream industries
The downstream industry of cells is the photovoltaic module industry, which is a photovoltaic power generation equipment formed by connecting a certain number of cells in series and parallel and tightly encapsulating them. Modules are the most important equipment of the photovoltaic power generation system, which determines the cost of photovoltaic power generation to a large extent. Thanks to the optimization and advancement of module technology in the optical, electrical, and structural aspects, the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic modules increased by an average of 03%-0.4%；From 2017 to 2020, the rate of conversion efficiency improvement accelerated to 05%-1%。
As the terminal product of the photovoltaic industry, the production of photovoltaic modules is closely integrated with the market, and the product is updated quickly, which requires a strong market response mechanism and high requirements for design and development capabilities. Driven by the growth of global PV demand, domestic enterprises have continued to increase investment and technological innovation in the module sector in recent years, and production costs have continued to decline in the past 10 years, and the degree of automation and digitalization has been continuously improved.
4. The development trend of the cell industry
(1) The development trend of the cell industry
1) Monocrystalline PERC technology
Since 2018, the market share of monocrystalline PERC cells has increased year by year, and it has become an absolute mainstream product in the market. On the one hand, with the application of continuous multi-crystal monocrystalline drawing technology and diamond wire cutting technology, the cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers has been declining, driving the cost of monocrystalline cells down, and according to CPIA statistics, China's monocrystalline silicon wafer market accounted for about 97 percent in 20225%。On the other hand, PERC technology has the advantages of high efficiency, low cost and high cost performance, and the market share of PERC cells has dropped to 88% in the second half of the year, but it is still the mainstream technology in the industry.
At present, the mass production conversion efficiency of mainstream battery manufacturers is 24 compared with the theoretical maximumThere is still some room for improvement in 5%, and how to maintain the stability of the efficiency of the cells produced in the mass production stage, that is, to improve the average conversion efficiency of mass production, is still an important issue for cell manufacturers to continue to invest in. Based on PERC technology, PERC+ is the general name of a series of technologies developed on the basis of PERC technology, including back alkali polishing, back aluminum grid design, back multi-layer passivation film, local laser doping, etc., which is committed to further reducing costs and increasing efficiency of PERC technology in the mass production stage.
2) Large-size battery technology
Since 2019, large-size battery technology has entered the mass production stage and rapidly expanded its scale, and by 2022, large-size battery products have occupied the mainstream of the industry. Before 2018, the mainstream cell products in the market included 156mm and 156mm75mm and 15875mm in three sizes. In order to further increase the power of modules to reduce costs, large-size cells such as 166mm, 182mm and 210mm have appeared on the market since 2019.
According to CPIA data, the mainstream cell size has begun to shift to large size in 2022, and from the perspective of silicon wafers, the 182mm+210mm size will account for 93% in 20232%。Large size has become an inevitable trend in the development of the photovoltaic industry. On the manufacturing side, large sizes can increase the output of wafers, cells, and modules, thereby diluting unit production costs. On the product side, the large size can effectively increase the power of the module, and improve the module conversion efficiency by optimizing the design of the cell and the module. On the system side, as the power of individual components increases, the large size can be reducedBrackets, combiner boxes, cables, landand so on, thus diluting the cost per unit.
The timeliness and stability of the application of large-size technology have also become a new industry threshold in the battery sector. In terms of technology, in order to ensure the quality and stability of the large-size cells produced and avoid the increase in fragmentation rate, cell manufacturers need to ensure the stability of the equipment operation status, and also need to overcome the uneven distribution of suede size, diffusion resistance, coating thickness and other problems caused by the increase in wafer size. In terms of the market, cell manufacturers must seize the key moment, choose the right time to apply the new large-size technology to mass production in a timely manner, and quickly achieve capacity expansion, stable product quality and lean cost control. This puts forward high requirements for cell manufacturers' strategic vision, execution, technological advancement, and cost control.
3) The main technology route of the next generation
N-type cell technology continues to make breakthroughs while PERC cell technology remains mainstream. At present, TOPCon and heterojunction are the main technical routes of N-type cells, and domestic photovoltaic leading enterprises generally have technical reserves for them, mainly in the application test stage such as small-scale test and pilot test, among which TOPCon technology has the advantages of high theoretical conversion efficiency and high compatibility with the existing PERC production line, and gradually shows economy at the module end and system side, so the industrialization development is the most rapid, and since 2022, integrated manufacturers represented by JinkoSolar have successively opened 10GW The construction of N-type TOPCon capacity marks the beginning of large-scale industrialization of N-type technology.
According to CPIA data, the total proportion of N-type cells in 2022 will reach about 9.1%, of which the N-type TOPCon cell market accounts for about 83%, and the market share of heterojunction cells is about 06%, and the XBC cell market accounts for about 02%。According to the CPIA, the market share of TOPCon cells may increase to 18 in 20231%, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points from 2022, and the overall n-type cell market share may increase to 225%.。
In 2022, the average conversion efficiency of N-type TOPCon cells reached 245%, and the average conversion efficiency of heterojunction cells reaches 246%, both of which are significantly improved compared with 2021, and the average conversion efficiency of XBC cells reaches 245%, and in the future, battery technologies such as TBC and HBC are likely to continue to make progress as technology develops. In the future, with the reduction of production costs and the improvement of yield, n-type batteries will become one of the main development directions of battery technology.