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Text |Modern Consumption, by |Fu Yancui, editor |Feng Yu.On the evening of March 4, Microcolando announced that as of March 1, 2024, Mengniu had increased its holdings of about 6.9 million shares of the company through the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with an increase of about 12.5 billion yuan. As soon as the news came out, the eyes of the outside world once again focused on this cheese company.
Back in 2019, Chai Xiu, the founder of Microcolando, who decided to gamble, used 500 million yuan from the bank to put the magic advertising film of "Microcolando, Miaokelando, Cheese Stick, Cheese Stick" on the elevator advertising screens of Focus Media's 16 cities across the country, and swiped the screen with a high frequency of 15 seconds and 480 times a day.
For a time, relying on the advertising film adapted from the melody of the children's song "Two Tigers", children's cheese sticks officially emerged, and at the same time, this dairy company that bets on cheese products has become the "cheesegrass" of the capital market.
At its peak in 2021, the market value of Microcolando was close to 43.5 billion yuan, and the gross profit margin of the cheese business reached the highest 4851%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 15.4 billion yuan.
However, the attractive track has also begun to attract more predators, from dairy giants such as Yili and Guangming, to innovative brands such as Miaofei, Dr. Cheese, and Jistin, as well as retail channels such as Yonghui and Hema have crossed over into the game, and the children's cheese stick market has gradually fallen into involution, and the first war and marketing war have taken turns.
The glow of Microcolando's high growth is also beginning to fade. The company released a performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit for the whole year of 2023 will be 48 million yuan - 72 million yuan, compared with 1Compared with 3.5 billion yuan, it decreased by 63.4 million yuan to 87.4 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 468%-64.5%。In the capital markets, its share price rose from a peak of 84 in 20215 yuan, all the way down to the current 133 yuan, the stock price fell by more than 80%.
As the financial report data becomes more and more bleak, people are beginning to realize that cheese is an indispensable source of life nutrition for Westerners. However, for Chinese people, the most well-known is still the unique product form of children's cheese sticks.
After several years of rapid growth, the genes of cheese culture still have no roots in the food culture of the Chinese people, and the ceiling of "focusing on cheese" has finally begun to appear.
In 2022, Wang Zi, whose hometown is in Hebei, thought twice and decided to apply to the company for transfer from Beijing to Gu'an, Hebei.
Prior to this, Wang Zi had been working as a member of the supermarket in a villa area in Beijing as a member of the best cheese products. In those years, it coincided with the performance growth period of Microcolando cheese sticks, and Wang Zi also enjoyed a wave of dividends.
I said that it was a ** employee, but my job at that time was very simple, I went to sort out the goods every day on weekdays, and I just went to the store for a few hours on weekends. Wang Zi revealed that because the Miaokelan products sold in the store are counted as her performance, the 30,000 yuan performance KPI set by the company for her at that time can be easily completed. And after deducting five insurances and one housing fund, the salary can be at least more than 3,000 yuan.
Wang Zi recalled that even during the epidemic, Miaokeland did not worry about selling. Because in order to coax children, parents inevitably have to give their children some snacks, and cheese sticks, a children's snack with functions such as calcium supplementation, have become the first choice of parents, "Sometimes we often sell out of stock, resulting in other brands not hesitating to distribute goods, but we still sell the best." ”
But in 2022, in order for her children to go to high school, Wang Zihe and the company applied to be transferred from Beijing to Gu'an, and the work performance she was able to complete again and again came to an abrupt end as the company bid farewell to the growth myth.
"I didn't finish in January. Wang Zi couldn't help but sigh to Modern Consumption that her monthly performance KPI in the supermarket was 250,000 yuan, but even if it is 5,000 yuan less than when it was in Beijing, it is still often not completed.
Therefore, when asked about Wang Zi's most obvious feeling of selling goods in 2023, Wang Zi bluntly said, "It must be that cheese sticks are getting harder and harder to sell, and the saddest thing is that this year's cheese sticks seem to be getting harder and harder to sell." ”
Speaking of which, Wang Zi took the performance of the same store during last year's Spring Festival and this year's Spring Festival as examples. She said that she applied for an 8-day break during the Spring Festival last year, and the store sold 320,000 yuan of goods. But she didn't rest during the Spring Festival this year, and even had to do ** in the store on Saturdays and Sundays, and she was also in the store on weekdays, and only sold 210,000 yuan of goods.
In our store, when there is no **, it sells an average of 400-500 yuan a day. Wang Zi couldn't help but sigh, if it weren't for the fact that she was already close to retirement, although this job didn't earn much, but she could pay insurance, she wouldn't want to do it. Because of the inability to complete the performance, her salary is getting less and less. Last year, her highest salary was only 2,700 yuan in one month.
In fact, the decline in Wang Zi's sales performance is also a microcosm of the increasingly unselling of Microcolando cheese sticks.
Microcolando's performance growth has been sluggish for more than two years. Judging from the financial report data from 2018 to 2021, Microcolando's revenue is still growing rapidly, with year-on-year growth rates respectively. 20% and 5732%。However, the revenue growth rate in 2022 will be significantly higher to 784%, and by the first three quarters of 2023, revenue will decline by 19 percent year-on-year7%。
In terms of profit, in 2022, Microcolando will achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13.5 billion yuan, down 12 percent year-on-year3%；The net profit in 2023 will be halved year-on-year.
In addition, the gross profit margin of the cheese business also increased from 4851% to 40 in the first half of 202357%。
For the large proportion of net profit decline in 2023, Microcolando gave three reasons - the slowdown in industry growth in 2023, the increase in the cost of main raw materials for cheese compared with the same period last year, and the decrease in the company's foreign exchange lock-up income and the increase in net interest expenses compared with the same period last year.
Obviously, the myth of performance growth brought about by Microcoland's ultra-high marketing investment is being ended.
Once upon a time, Microcolando relied on the familiar ** image of popular animation IPs such as Captain Paws, Pokémon and Doraemon printed on the packaging, coupled with the jelly-like silky taste, so that the cheese stick became a "baby artifact" for parents.
Wen Jing, the mother of the second child in Langfang, is a loyal parent who buys Microcolando. Her daughter has been eating Mickeland cheese sticks since she was 2 years old, "a bag of 199 yuan for 5 pieces, she can eat it in a short while. ”
Wen Jing silently calculated that she spent no less than 200 yuan a month on Miaokeland cheese sticks.
However, it was also since last year that Wen Jing began to notice that Miaokeland often engaged in **under**. For example, the price is reduced, or some terminal stores even tie the expiring cheese stick products with milk, yogurt and other products. In addition, Microcolando cheese sticks are often accompanied by stickers to encourage children to buy.
As soon as I take my daughter to the supermarket, she will go straight to the cheese stick section, and there are all kinds of stickers or toys in the bag, which makes her even more attractive. Wen Jing said.
In fact, how hard Miaokeland worked hard to sell goods, Wang Zi's feelings were more intuitive.
Consumption is declining, and now consumers are more rational, only buying the most suitable ones, not expensive ones. Wang Zi said that if the goods are sold at the original price now, they may have to wait for the products to fall into ashes.
As he spoke, Wang Zi pointed to the cheese sticks on the shelves of Microcoland, almost all of which added transparent plastic bags to the outside of the packaging bags, which contained toys and stickers that attracted children, and even put two more cheese sticks. In addition, there is also a "bag with surprise" activity during the Spring Festival launched by Microcolando, where each bag can be swept a few cents in cash.
But relying only on these materials and a few cents of "small surprises" can only attract children, and can not make parents immediately moved, "It's better to have a full reduction activity." Wang Zi talked about the business of selling goods, "Today our store just launched the 'full 99-30 yuan' activity, which lasted for more than a week. This month's performance is finally going to be stable. ”
Wang Zi revealed that without activities, the store's sales in a day are 400-500 yuan, but with the blessing of the full reduction effect, the sales can reach 1,000 yuan a day.
Modern Consumption also found that in front of the dairy freezer in a large supermarket, the sales words of the shopping guides for cheese sticks changed from "calcium delicious" to "buy one get one free" and "unprecedented discounts". Even Wang Zi's propaganda slogan has become "Sixty-nine yuan eight, two bags to take home, not much to spend".
In fact, consumers are not only starting to be sensitive to **, but also starting to pay more attention to the ingredient list.
Nowadays, scientific feeding awareness such as branding and formula party is prevalent, and post-90s mothers have begun to pay attention to the efficacy of ingredients when choosing snacks, and consumers have a clear buy. Among them, a clean ingredient list is one of the most important conditions.
However, in order to make the taste better and the cost of processed cheese sticks, some chemical ingredients such as emulsifiers, preservatives, flavors, and colors are added to the ingredient list. Even the blogger "Daddy Reviews" has released a test of 16 children's cheese sticks**, and he specifically pointed out that the "calcium-sodium ratio" of two cheese sticks of Microcolando is less than 1, that is, there is more sodium than calcium.
Picture: Daddy Review**Screenshot).
Contrary to the advertisements of merchants, cheese stick products that focus on high protein and high calcium are not actually a healthy snack, which also dissuades a large number of parents. Beijing Bao's mother complained to Modern Consumption that she wanted to buy cheese sticks for her almost two-year-old baby some time ago, but when she looked at the ingredient list offline, it was all technology and hard work, "in the end, forget it".
Unable to catch the more discerning consumers, the cheese sticks are also starting to fall out of favor. According to the 2023 China Shopper Report Series 2 released by Bain & Company and Kantar Worldpanel, overall sales of the cheese category fell by 18% in the first three quarters of 2023, compared to a 26% increase in the same period in 2022.
It is even more obvious in the turnover days of Microcolando. As of the end of June 2023, the carrying value of Microcoland's inventory increased by approximately 11% year-on-year to 76.4 billion yuan, inventory turnover days reached 9538 days, an increase of 29 compared to the same period last year51 days.
It is worth noting that the frequent ** activities and the overall sales decline in the industry seem to have affected the confidence of Microcolando dealers.
As of June 30, 2023, the company had a total of 5,016 dealers and a sales network covering about 800,000 retail terminals. According to the 2021 financial report data, the company has a total of 5,363 dealers, and its sales network covers about 600,000 retail terminals. In just one and a half years, the company's dealers have decreased by 347.
The pressure on the channel has also made the road to breaking the game more complicated.
For a long time, the cheese stick market was dominated by Microcolando (40% of the market share of the core cheese stick range). But with the cheese stick market stalling on the one hand, and the brands grabbing the market on the other, it is becoming more and more difficult for Microcolando's business to do.
One proof is that when Wen Jing first bought cheese sticks for her daughter, she could only see cheese sticks of the Microcolando brand offline. But with the development of the industry, cheese sticks from brands such as Dr. Cheese, Bajifu, and Miaofei began to appear on supermarket shelves. ”
In fact, the threshold of the cheese stick market is not high, backed by the industry's best chain, buy a few animation image IPs, you can start a children's cheese brand. As long as the capital is sufficient, the new brand can quickly become the top brand.
Chen Yun, who left the position of vice president of Microcolando, founded the cheese brand Miaofei; Chen Yuhua, the head of the China region of a German dairy giant, gave up his glamorous job in a foreign company and turned to the sea to found Dr. Cheese; Yili established a cheese division a long time ago; Retailers such as Yonghui and Hema have also entered the game across borders.
According to Qichacha data, since 2019, there have been 883 newly registered enterprises in China whose keywords are "cheese", "cheese" and "cheese".
Chai Xiu even revealed to ** that the ** war in the cheese industry has started since 2020 and is showing a trend of normalization.
Wang Zi is even sensitively aware that the cheese stick industry has entered the knockout stage.
This (Dr. Cheese) is about to be removed from the shelves by the supermarket. Wang Zi pointed to selling only 10The 9 yuan bag of Dr. Cheese cheese sticks told Modern Consumption that it only had a few bags left for sale, because the sales were not good, and the supermarket would not let them be put on the shelves.
In the face of the children's cheese stick track with serious involution, the next market increment comes from?
Chai Xiu once pointed out that the so-called "slowdown in growth" is more about the slowdown in the growth of sub-categories represented by children's retail cheese sticks, while the development of original cheese, "cheese + leisure snacks", "cheese + Chinese food" and other categories has just entered a new stage.
In fact, as the growth of the children's cheese stick category slows down, the cheese market is accelerating the integration with snack foods, Chinese food, etc. Among them, the first cheese snack products emerge in an endless stream, and the application of cheese in coffee, tea, and Chinese food is also increasing.
For example, Microcolando is actively transforming from a raw material supplier to a terminal service provider and developing the B-end market. According to public information, it has cooperated with Western-style fast food and baking head companies such as Zunbao and Saizeriya, tea head enterprises such as Naixue, Gu Ming and Lele Tea, and well-known Chinese food companies such as Grandma's House. In the first half of 2023, the revenue of Microcoland's catering industry series increased by 16% year-on-year41%。
In addition, Microcolando also officially announced its first original cheese "Harloumi fried grilled cheese" last year. Grilled cheese can be used for breakfast, dinner, and even hot pot, barbecue and many other scenarios.
The ideal seems to be very plump, but the reality is that China has a vast territory and a very diverse range of Chinese cuisines, but it is difficult to combine cheese with Chinese food, which makes most people in China have no tradition and habit of eating cheese except for a few regions. If you want to further expand your "cheese", you obviously need more time and patience.
However, just like coffee, which is also a "foreign product", it initially entered the drink list of some Chinese with the blessing of sugar and milk, and later widely spread by international chain coffee shops, and finally ushered in the domestic coffee market.
Whether cheese, which is "unaccustomed to Chinese eating", can enter the family table from children's snacks, time will give the answer.