Real estate companies have not had a good time recently, the two sessions are still being held, and the stimulus policy will definitely have to wait until the end of the opening before it will be introduced, but the debt of real estate companies can not wait, the confidence of the market can not be grinded, the sales data can not be consumed, the capital is the most ruthless, there are no good profits and expectations, and only the cold ** and leave the market.
On March 4, Vanke once again fell into the crisis of double killing stocks and bonds, because there were market rumors that Vanke negotiated with lenders to extend the maturity of its non-standard debt, but was refused. Although Xinhua Assets has officially stated that it is a platform for Vanke, at least from the current point of view, the effect is not particularly good. On the same day, a number of domestic bonds fell, among which Vanke 06 once triggered a temporary suspension of trading, a decline of as much as 36%, and by the time, the original 100 bonds were as low as 50 yuan and 1 cent. The house leak happened to rain overnight, and Vanke fell 467%，*9.$43 per share; Hong Kong stocks fell by more than 7%, *5HK$6 per share.
And on the morning of March 5th, I still didn't mention it, and on the morning of that day, **once**exceeded 2.44%。This green makes people feel scared, because taking Big A as an example, Vanke has been equivalent to a three-fold discount in the past five years, so the market scene is very worried. In October last year, Vanke was blocked by the capital market, followed by the Shenzhen SASAC to calm down the turmoil, at that time, it was said that if Vanke encountered extreme risks in operation, the SASAC will do everything possible to help Vanke keep the bottom line through marketization and rule of law, and it can also be seen that Vanke's crisis has indeed had a deep impact, and this time the crisis of stock and debt double kill is actually because of debt and Vanke's fire sale, and the chain reaction caused by the recent sales downturn.
The first is about debt maturity, which is actually Vanke's hope to extend 97 as mentioned last weekThe small essay on the rejection of 800 million non-standard debts, it can be said that the market does not believe the statement of Xinhua Assets, because the statement only said that the rumors were untrue, and the amount of the debt was not mentioned, the extension was not mentioned, and whether it was rejected or not, which gave the market unlimited reverie, and according to the prospectus of Vanke's fourth phase of notes in 2023, there are indeed 7 loans with Xinhua Asset Management, and the amount is also 978.2 billion yuan, the earliest one was 262.5 billion yuan, will expire on December 25 this year, so this rumor is actually self-defeating, and it is still too early to speculate about the things at the end of the year, because now the market is really concerned about Vanke's dollar bonds that are about to expire on March 11, and Vanke said that the funds have been in place, and the debt repayment work is being arranged in an orderly manner, so the 11th is the moment when Vanke's tragedy is really clear.
The second key point affecting Vanke is the recent operation of Vanke's broken arm to survive, on February 9, Vanke sold off Shanghai's high-quality commercial asset Qibao Vanke Plaza, and returned 238.4 billion, this square can be said to be an egg-laying rooster, according to the financial report, the operating income of this square from 2020 to 2022 is 36.8 billion, 44.2 billion and 40.8 billion, ranking first in Vanke's commercial projects, in the first half of last year, again with 2The operating income of 1.3 billion yuan ranks first in the group. After all, like Country Garden and Evergrande, they were also sold and sold before, but they sold the project with the most stable cash flow at a 7% discount, which can show that Vanke is now short of money, and it is very short of money, otherwise it will not fall to this point and operation, only people who are extremely hungry and thirsty in the desert will be willing to pay for a bottle of water, and vice versa.
Moreover, Vanke also sold Shenzhen High-tech Investment 616% of the equity, recently it was revealed that he is planning to sell part of the equity of the park, Yu Liang previously revealed that in order to do a good job in the park, he lost 9 billion in five years, and began to achieve overall profitability in September last year, but when he made money, he had to cut the meat, whether the news belonged to this remains to be further replied by Vanke. And from the perspective of land acquisition, only three projects were taken from January to February this year, and the amount of land acquired was 48900 million, respectively in Kunming, Yinchuan and Guiyang, the average price of land is 5080 yuan a flat, has ranked 23rd, and now dare to go to the third-tier cities to get land, Vanke's approach also makes the market a little incomprehensible, you must know that Country Garden is now the most headache is to sell third- and fourth-tier houses. It can be said that the gap is getting bigger and bigger, and it is not necessary to go to the first and second lines to acquire land on a large scale, which actually shows the tight cash flow from the side, and the land acquisition end continues to shrink.
The third aspect is the most important point, Vanke's sales are now declining very obviously, of course, this is the industry reason, Vanke has not been able to stand alone. In the first two months of this year, Vanke's cumulative sales were 334500 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 417%, of which February sales were only 141500 million, down more than 52% year-on-year. Last year, Vanke achieved a contracted sales amount of 3,761200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase is also **98%。According to the financial report, as of the third quarter of last year, Vanke's total assets were 164 trillion yuan, total liabilities 123 trillion yuan, asset-liability ratio of 7528%, of which current liabilities were 9404700 million yuan, 474 non-current liabilities due within one year9.1 billion yuan, while Vanke's cash on the books was 1036800 million yuan, on the books, can cover short-term liabilities.
In fact, Vanke is still a virgin so far and has not defaulted on its debts, but international rating agencies Fitch and Moody's both downgraded Vanke's ratings last year, because sales money is the most important fund for real estate companies. If there is no sales, no matter how much cash flow will be empty, so everyone now looks at Vanke in 2018 and it is no longer Versailles to live, because at that time it was still the rising period of the hot property market, the three red lines have not yet come out, and everyone is still convinced of buying a house to make money, so six years later, everyone seems to understand Yu Liang's good intentions, of course, it is still a beat slower, and this former top student has also reached the crossroads of survival or not.
So now, to survive, in fact, is not only to Vanke, but to all real estate companies, because Vanke's sales are still at the top level, although the performance has declined, but not Vanke, the performance of other real estate companies has also declined seriously, because Vanke can be said to be the belief and totem of many people on real estate companies, if Vanke has fallen, the people will inevitably mutter, if Vanke has problems, can the house still be bought? Moreover, Vanke is a mixed real estate enterprise, which is different from the unique system of private real estate enterprises, and it is also a benchmark real estate enterprise, and Vanke and Evergrande and Country Garden play high leverage to play thunderstorm is different, Vanke is still encountered the overall demand of the property market, the reality of oversupply in the market is bleak, so everyone is staring at Vanke, whether the property market support policy can work, it depends on whether Vanke can keep the bottom line of the thunderstorm.
If Vanke is also attacked by debt, the next step is to start worrying about the situation of the central state-owned enterprises, there are no eggs under the nest, after all, like some upstream and downstream construction engineering group employees have felt a very big chill, personnel optimization, salary cuts, waiting for posts, layoffs, one by one to make adults frightened words, may one day berain themselves, so the three words of survival are actually Vanke Yu always said to each of us.